BTC is down by less than 1% in the last 24 hours and is currently trading below $87k.
It could dip lower if the bullish trend fails to prevail.
Bitcoin stalls around $86k
Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Ripple (XRP) prices hover around key levels following a positive start to the week. The price action of the leading cryptocurrencies suggests fading bearish momentum.
However, the bulls have failed to push prices higher, and Bitcoin could revisit lower support levels in the near term. However, if the support levels hold, Bitcoin could rally higher over the next few days.
Analysts are optimistic that Bitcoin’s price could appreciate in the medium to long term. While commenting on the current market conditions, Coinbase UK CEO Keith Grose said,
“Market conditions are shifting as institutions across Europe take a more structured and regulated approach to digital assets. We’re seeing clearer frameworks emerge, stronger infrastructure being developed, and early examples of central banks and financial institutions running controlled pilots to build practical understanding – including the Czech National Bank’s recent decision to test a small, ring-fenced portfolio of digital assets.”
Bitcoin’s price could face further pressure
The BTC/USD 4-hour chart is bearish and efficient as Bitcoin has underperformed in the last 24 hours. The leading cryptocurrency found support around the $80k psychological level on Friday and has slightly bounced back since then.
At press time, Bitcoin is trading around $86,800 per coin after failing to overcome the $90k resistance level. If the recovery continues, BTC could rally toward the next key resistance at $90,000. The ILQ and TLQ levels above $92k could also serve as short-term targets for Bitcoin.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart reads 47, after slipping below the oversold threshold last week, suggesting that downside pressure is declining. The MACD lines are also close to the bullish zone as buyers remain in control.
However, if BTC fails to overcome the $90k resistance, it could extend the decline toward the key psychological level at $80,000.
Strategy Inc. (formerly MicroStrategy) spent 2025 building the largest corporate Bitcoin reserve the public markets have ever financed, but the scale of that ambition ended up colliding with the logic of its own stock.
What began as an aggressive accumulation strategy, powered by the company’s appetite for leverage and a willingness to dilute existing shareholders, evolved into a structural contradiction that now defines the firm.
A balance sheet swollen by Bitcoin, but a narrative stretched to breaking
Strategy has raised $21 billion across seven securities offerings in a single year to expand its holdings to roughly 641,000 BTC, a figure that now represents close to 3% of the asset’s finite supply.
Yet as the balance sheet grew to historic proportions, the equity story unraveled, leaving the stock 68% below its highs and forcing investors to reassess what kind of company they were actually buying into.
The shift did not happen suddenly. Over the past two quarters, institutions pared their exposure from $36.32 billion to $30.94 billion, a $5.38 billion retreat that reflected broader risk rotation across the market but also genuine discomfort with Strategy’s financing model.
The company no longer trades like a software developer or a technology platform. It moves in near lockstep with Bitcoin itself, yet its capital structure behaves like an experiment in perpetual leverage.
Investors are confronted with an entity that generates multi-billion-dollar profits when Bitcoin rallies and multi-billion-dollar losses when it falls. For many, the volatility was tolerable. It was the dilution layered on top of it that proved untenable.
A year of capital that redefined a company
The mechanics underpinning Strategy’s transformation show how aggressively the firm leaned into its thesis.
The firm stated that it issued $11.9 billion in common equity, $6.9 billion in preferred equity, and $2.0 billion in convertible debt, and used the proceeds to fund a persistent bid for Bitcoin throughout the year.
The sequencing of these raises did more than enlarge the treasury; it recast the company’s identity. Each new round introduced more outstanding shares, weakened the claim of existing holders, and signaled that management prioritized reserve expansion over earnings stability or stock performance.
This approach might have been sustainable in a market that rewarded asymmetric exposure to Bitcoin’s upside.
But in a year when investors increasingly sought predictable cash flows and balanced operating models, Strategy’s structure made it difficult for large portfolios to justify continued exposure.
The company’s results are volatile by design, and its dilution is structural rather than cyclical. The combination pushed institutions toward firms with steadier fundamentals, leaving Strategy’s stock as a proxy for Bitcoin with a corporate wrapper attached.
Strategic custody realignment
The strategic shift extended beyond fundraising. Blockchain analysis platform Arkham Intelligence reported that Strategy moved roughly 58,000 BTC, about $5.1 billion, to Fidelity Digital Assets within two months.
It added:
“In total, Strategy holds 641,692 BTC ($56.14B) with a total of 165,709 BTC ($14.50B) sent to Fidelity Custody.”
The decision reflects a broader recalibration of operational risk. After years of relying primarily on Coinbase as its custodian, the company adopted a multi-provider model that better aligns with the expectations of lenders and credit analysts, who prefer diversified custody arrangements.
The change came with tradeoffs. Fidelity operates an omnibus custody structure that aggregates client assets on-chain.
This model improves redundancy and satisfies institutional counterparty expectations, but it removes the direct visibility that once allowed analysts to track Strategy’s holdings through identifiable wallet clusters.
In the earlier setup, the company’s solvency profile could be monitored by cross-checking public addresses against corporate disclosures.
The omnibus framework replaces this real-time transparency with custodian statements and internal audit controls, which provide security and operational strength but reduce the external interpretability that retail traders and on-chain researchers once relied on.
Assessing MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin Debt Coverage
As the company’s debt stack grew, management introduced an unconventional metric to reassure bondholders and defend the leverage.
The Strategy “Bitcoin (BTC) Rating” measures the coverage of the convertible notes by comparing the market value of the Bitcoin treasury to the face value of the debt.
This ratio was designed to simplify the credit conversation by focusing on asset coverage rather than earnings variability, and early data suggest that the buffer is substantial.
At a Bitcoin price of $74,000, which aligns with Strategy’s aggregate cost basis, the coverage stands at 5.9 times. Notably, even a significant drawdown to $25,000 reduces the coverage to only 2.0 times, which still exceeds the face value of the obligations.
For creditors, this framing provides comfort. The numbers indicate that Strategy retains significant collateral protection even in adverse scenarios.
Equity holders, however, see something different. The BTC Rating does not address the dilution required to sustain the treasury expansion, nor does it mitigate the volatility that directly flows into quarterly results.
Essentially, this shows that the firm’s creditors receive clarity on risk exposure, while shareholders absorb the structural consequences of continuous issuance.
Strategy meets the market capitalization and liquidity thresholds for the S&P 500, but the index requires four consecutive quarters of positive earnings.
Because Strategy’s profits are mechanically tied to Bitcoin’s price fluctuations, the firm struggles to produce sustained earnings under the accounting framework S&P uses for eligibility.
In quarters where Bitcoin rises, Strategy’s reported profits soar. In quarters where Bitcoin retreats, the losses are equally significant. This volatility effectively bars the firm from the index and eliminates a substantial pool of passive demand that could otherwise support the stock.
That exclusion matters because Strategy’s liquidity and public float are ample enough that index inclusion would typically be a natural next step for a company of its size. Instead, the firm remains dependent on active investors who must evaluate the combined risks of leverage, dilution, and Bitcoin-linked earnings volatility.
The result is an increasingly bifurcated identity: a corporation that built a massive digital asset reserve financed through public markets, but whose equity value reflects the market’s skepticism about the sustainability of the strategy used to build it.
MicroStrategy’s reinvention
Strategy achieved something no other public company has attempted at this scale. It constructed a corporate Bitcoin reserve of unprecedented size, diversified its custodians, and engineered a novel debt coverage metric to stabilize its credit footprint.
The company proved that public markets would finance a multi-billion-dollar Bitcoin accumulation model and that operational infrastructure could evolve as quickly as its balance sheet.
What it has not secured is a stable equity narrative. Investors who once treated the stock as a leveraged proxy for Bitcoin now confront a capital structure that demands ongoing dilution to maintain its pace of accumulation.
Creditors feel protected by the asset coverage, while shareholders remain exposed to earnings swings and capital supply decisions. The market’s repricing reflects this tension.
The company delivered on its ambition to dominate the Bitcoin treasury landscape, but the approach that enabled it continues to weaken the very equity engine that funds it.
Monad users reported spoofed ERC20 transfers within 48 hours of mainnet launch.
More than 76,000 wallets claimed 3.33 billion MON tokens in the airdrop.
Monad’s testnet recorded more than 2.6 billion transactions.
Monad’s first week on mainnet has drawn intense attention across the crypto community, but it has also revealed how quickly malicious tactics can surface on a new EVM chain.
The project went live only a day before users began spotting unusual ERC20 transfer notifications that appeared legitimate at first glance.
Reports across X on Tuesday, Nov. 25, showed that scammers were already attempting to mislead newcomers who were still getting used to the network’s tools.
The incident created confusion during a launch that has otherwise seen strong participation and rapid growth, especially around the airdrop and early trading activity.
Spoof alerts grow across new network
Several users highlighted that fabricated ERC20 token transfers were appearing on explorers and wallets within 48 hours of the mainnet debut. These events looked authentic but did not move funds or alter balances.
A post on X from Monad co-founder and chief technology officer James Hunsaker drew early attention to the problem, as he warned that scammers were broadcasting fabricated transfers that appeared to come from his wallet.
The issue emerged because ERC20 is only an interface standard, which allows any contract to emit logs that resemble transfer activity even when no tokens are involved.
This behaviour is common across new EVM ecosystems, especially during traffic spikes when users rush to test fresh applications.
Screenshots circulating online showed transactions that looked like genuine movements of assets, which contributed to early confusion.
Social engineering links drive the activity
The appearance of these fake transfers formed part of a broader attempt to direct users toward phishing pages, claim buttons, or malicious contract approvals.
Spoofing has long been used to trick users into believing they have received unexpected tokens or triggered actions they did not initiate.
The tactic relies on creating urgency so that users interact with unsafe links.
As activity increased, the hashtag #MonadScam briefly trended on X before interest settled.
The network stated that the incident was not an exploit and noted that no funds were lost.
Many users also noted that wallet balances remained unchanged, which helped clarify the situation once the warnings spread.
Launch activity and airdrop hype fuel attention
Monad launched with significant momentum, which contributed to the early surge in attention from attackers.
More than 76,000 wallets claimed 3.33 billion MON tokens in the airdrop round, worth about $105 million at the time.
The demand created an ideal moment for malicious actors who were already familiar with earlier phishing attempts that imitated Monad’s airdrop portal.
The chain has been one of the most active debuts of the year, supported by more than 280 projects at launch.
The network is built by former Jump Trading engineers and is positioned as a high-performance, EVM-compatible chain.
Funding has exceeded $260 million from backers such as Paradigm, Electric Capital, and OKX Ventures.
Its testnet recorded more than 2.6 billion transactions, more than 300 million wallets, and 41 million blocks. These early figures contributed to heavy interest during the mainnet rollout, which made the environment more attractive to scammers looking to exploit user excitement.
Token activity rises as users stay cautious
MON opened at $0.02, and after an initial drop, the token gained more than 50% and traded near $0.045 at press time.
Increased interaction across dApps and explorers has encouraged the team to advise users to avoid urgency prompts, rely on verified explorers, and double-check contract engagements as mainnet traffic continues to rise.
The combination of rapid adoption, large airdrop participation, and growing traction across the ecosystem has made security awareness a priority during the early phase of the network.
Market infrastructure provider Deutsche Börse plans to integrate the EURAU euro-pegged stablecoin issued by AllUnity, expanding the exchange group’s digital-asset strategy following earlier ties with Circle’s Euro Coin (EURC) and Societe Generale-Forge’s EUR CoinVertible (EURCV).
According to a Wednesday announcement shared with Cointelegraph, Deutsche Börse plans to integrate EURAU into its financial market infrastructure, starting with institutional custody through its central securities depository arm, Clearstream. The announcement also promised a future “integration of the euro stablecoin across the entire service portfolio.”
This would integrate the stablecoin into a sizable and growing market. According to World Federation of Exchanges data, Deutsche Börse’s domestic equity market capitalization is about $2.23 trillion with 474 listed companies.
The two companies signed a memorandum of understanding, but have not yet shared a specific date for when the new features will go live. AllUnity CEO Alexander Höptner said that the partnership is “making onchain cross-border payments and digital assets accessible to institutional market participants.”
Deutsche Börse Group executive board member Stephanie Eckermann said the “goal is to build a seamless bridge between the established financial world and the future of digital assets.” She added that this partnership is an important part of the effort and that embedding institutional-grade stablecoins allows clients “to confidently explore new possibilities in digital finance.”
Deutsche Börse’s EURAU integration follows its partnership with major stablecoin issuer Circle to adopt its EURC token in late September. Earlier this month, the company also announced that it had partnered with Societe Generale-Forge to integrate its EURCV stablecoin.
With this latest deal, Deutsche Börse appears to be playing the stablecoin game on all fronts, adding EURAU, issued by a German BaFin-licensed e-money institution. This complements EURCV, a bank-tied stablecoin, as Societe Generale-Forge is the blockchain arm of major French multinational bank Societe Generale; EURC comes from a US tech-sector issuer.
While not leading to as many headlines as the United States, the European Union is also making progress in stablecoin adoption following the full introduction of the Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) framework at the end of 2024. The announcement noted that the partnership “aligns with MiCA” and “represents a tangible step toward digitizing European markets and enhancing settlement and liquidity processes.”
Höptner said, “Europe is taking a global lead in regulated digital finance.”
Still, while picking up speed, stablecoin adoption remains low in Europe. Earlier this month, financial stability experts at the European Central Bank (ECB) said stablecoin-related risks in the euro area were limited due to low adoption and preventative regulation.
Some analyses point to euro stablecoins as a response to concerns that US dollar-backed stablecoins could threaten the European Union’s monetary independence. “Europe should not be dependent on US dollar-denominated stablecoins, which are currently dominating markets,” Pierre Gramegna, the managing director of the European Stability Mechanism, said earlier this month.
The industry is also seeing increasing involvement by local traditional financial players. In mid-October, Franco-German banking group ODDO BHF launched a stablecoin pegged to the euro under the MiCA framework.
In late September, a group of major European banks joined forces to launch a euro-pegged stablecoin under MiCA. The list of nine banks includes Dutch lender ING and Italy’s UniCredit.
Spain’s Sumar parliamentary group has introduced amendments to reform three major tax laws affecting cryptocurrencies, including the General Tax Law, Income Tax Law, and Inheritance and Gift Tax Law.
The proposal would change how crypto profits are taxed, shifting gains from non-financial-instrument assets into the general income tax bracket, which raises the top rate to 47% instead of the current 30% savings rate, while setting a flat 30% tax for corporate holders, according to a Tuesday report from CriptoNoticias.
The plan by the left-wing political platform also requires the National Securities Market Commission (CNMV) to create a visual “risk traffic light” system for cryptocurrencies, to be displayed on investor platforms.
Another controversial element is the proposal to classify all cryptocurrencies as attachable assets eligible for seizure. Lawyer Cris Carrascosa said on X that this is unenforceable, especially for tokens like Tether’s USDt (USDT), which cannot be held by regulated custodians under MiCA rules.
Cris Carrascosa explains why the new proposal doesn’t make sense. Source: Cris Carrascosa
In a post on X, economist and tax adviser José Antonio Bravo Mateu denounced the amendments as “useless attacks against Bitcoin,” arguing that the measures misunderstand how decentralized assets work. He noted that Bitcoin held in self-custody cannot be seized or monitored in the same way as traditional financial assets.
“The only thing these measures achieve is to make its holders residing in Spain think about fleeing when BTC rises so high that they no longer care what politicians say,” he warned.
Meanwhile, tax inspectors Juan Faus and José María Gentil have recently suggested creating a special, more favorable tax regime specifically for Bitcoin (BTC). Their proposal allows taxpayers to separate wallets and apply either FIFO (first-in, first-out) or weighted-average methods, with value adjustments when moving assets between wallets to prevent tax gaming.
Spain’s tax agency has been warning crypto holders about taxes for years, sending 328,000 warning notices for taxes on crypto for the 2022 fiscal year in 2023, followed by 620,000 similar notices a year later.
While Spain considers increasing tax on crypto gains, Japan’s Financial Services Agency (FSA) is pushing for a tax reform that would dramatically reduce the burden on crypto investors.
Instead of taxing crypto earnings as “miscellaneous income” at rates that can reach 55%, Japan aims to apply a flat 20% capital gains tax, bringing digital assets in line with equities and making the country more competitive for traders and businesses.
The state legislation sets aside $10 million for Bitcoin accumulation.
Texas is preparing a formal tender to choose a custodian for the reserve.
New Hampshire authorised a Bitcoin reserve and approved a $100 million Bitcoin bond.
Texas is moving ahead with one of the most ambitious state-level crypto strategies in the country as it begins shaping the framework for a government Bitcoin reserve.
The state has now taken its first formal step by acquiring $5 million in shares of BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust.
The purchase is part of a wider plan triggered by legislation passed earlier this year, which allocated $10 million for future Bitcoin accumulation.
The early activity positions Texas to become the first US state to hold a dedicated cryptocurrency reserve, giving it a lead in a growing competition among states exploring digital asset policies.
Texas builds foundation for Bitcoin reserve
The state has been gathering information from the cryptocurrency industry to help design how its reserve will operate.
The review began after Texas issued a request for information in September seeking guidance on best practices for storage, security, and management.
Industry groups sent detailed submissions covering custody models, investment structures, governance frameworks, and security systems.
The process is part of a wider effort to ensure the reserve can be managed with clear procedures once it transitions from planning to execution.
Texas officials are expected to follow this phase with a formal request for proposal.
The tender will be used to select a custodian and determine the final operational rules for the programme.
The recent $5 million allocation acts as a temporary measure rather than direct Bitcoin ownership while the state completes its selection process, according to a CoinDesk report.
States explore government crypto strategies
Other states have also gained exposure to Bitcoin, though through different channels.
Michigan and Wisconsin accessed cryptocurrency markets through public-employee retirement funds.
Wisconsin sold a $350 million allocation in May, according to public records.
These moves reflect growing institutional interest at the state level, even in cases where governments have not yet adopted dedicated reserves.
Several states are actively studying the idea of holding Bitcoin for strategic purposes.
New Hampshire has authorised the creation of a government Bitcoin reserve, although it has not yet made any purchases.
Last week, the New Hampshire Business Finance Authority approved a $100 million Bitcoin bond designed to support an economic development fund backed by cryptocurrency.
The structure relies on private sector activity rather than direct state accumulation.
Early development continues nationwide
Arizona is also taking steps toward a government-level reserve.
Its legislation directs unclaimed cryptocurrency assets held by the state into a dedicated reserve.
The plan creates an initial legal foundation that could support future accumulation, although the full reserve framework is still in development.
These early efforts reflect a rising interest among states in integrating digital assets into long-term financial planning.
The state-level activity is unfolding alongside federal discussions.
President Donald Trump has publicly supported the idea of a national Bitcoin investment strategy.
The administration has issued an executive order directing officials to begin planning for a federal reserve structure.
Government teams working on the project are now waiting for congressional approval before advancing to the next stage.
Texas sets the pace in state crypto adoption
Texas remains the most advanced of the state-level initiatives due to its legislative backing and its first confirmed investment.
The move signals a shift from exploratory interest to practical implementation, with a structured plan for selecting custodians and defining reserve operations.
The next steps will determine how the state transitions from temporary allocations to direct Bitcoin ownership once contracts and governance systems are finalised.
Paxos purchases an institutional wallet provider in a $100M deal.
The move leverages Fordefi’s MPC wallet for a regulated custody framework.
DeFi is increasingly becoming part of the mainstream monetary infrastructure.
Paxos, a reputable blockchain infrastructure company behind multiple stablecoins, confirmed the acquisition on Forderfi late on Tuesday.
While the firms didn’t reveal the transaction’s value, sources close to the matter suggest that the deal exceeds $100 million, reflecting one of the most aggressive and strategic expansions in recent years.
The team emphasized:
This strengthens our ability to support institutions with more flexible and sophisticated digital asset infrastructure.
For context, Fordefi is a thriving enterprise wallet and custody provider.
This acquisition comes as institutions are moving to on-chain operations at an unprecedented pace.
Companies exploring blockchain technology like tokenized assets, complex DeFi strategies, and stablecoin settlements are seeking secure, modular custody.
Paxos aims to satisfy this demand by merging its compliant custodial infrastructure with Fordefi’s policy-centered MPC (multi-party computation) wallet tech.
Commenting on the strategic purchase, Paxos co-founder and CEO Charles Cascarilla said:
Together, Paxos and Fordefi provide customers with a world-class custody solution built upon advanced wallet technology and regulated, qualified custody. We’re excited to welcome Fordefi to our team as we enter this new phase of growth.
Paxos enriches its enterprise playbook
Businesses venturing into the blockchain and crypto sectors have leveraged Paxos for compliant infrastructure and custody.
The firm maintains a high-end regulatory model, with supervision from Singapore’s MAS, the NYDFS in the US, Abu Dhabi’s FSRA, and FIN-FSA in Europe.
Moreover, its tokenization and stablecoin systems power fiscal settlements for leading companies, including MasterCard, Nubank, PayPal, and Interactive Brokers.
Now, Paxos is integrating Fordefi to offer its customers a unified platform that supports everything from asset tokenization and issuance to streamlined access to DeFi protocols.
CEO Cascarillar added:
Fordefi has built an impressive stack and customer base founded on easy-to-use APIs and seamless web3 connectivity. Market participants require a regulated platform partner that meets their range of complex custody needs.
The fast-growing Fordefi
Fordefi has grown into a reputable institutional wallet provider in the DeFi industry since its 2021 launch.
The platform boasts two crucial features.
First and foremost, Fordefi’s MPC-based address model reduced single-point failure risks.
On the other hand, the policy engines enable enterprises to handle compliance rules, risk management, and permissions across decentralized and centralized setups.
Fordefi currently secures over $120 billion in monthly transactions, supporting nearly 300 enterprises, including hedge funds, crypto-native companies, and trading desks.
Josh Schwartz, CEO of Fordefi, believes Paxos will heighten its reach while aligning with its primary missions. He said:
Fordefi has built a best-in-class wallet platform trusted by nearly 300 institutions. Joining Paxos allows us to bring our technology to an even broader audience while maintaining our focus on security, usability, and innovation. Together, we will offer enterprises the unified custody and stablecoin infrastructure they need to deploy real-world digital asset use cases at scale.
For now, Fordefi will operate independently as Paxos pursues a phased integration.
Crypto-friendly White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett has reportedly emerged as a top candidate for the next Federal Reserve chair, replacing Jerome Powell when his tenure is up in May.
President Donald Trump’s advisers and backers see Hassett as the frontrunner to take over as Fed chair, as he’s expressed sympathy with Trump’s desire to cut rates, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday, citing people familiar with the matter.
Hassett is the director of the National Economic Council, who oversees the White House’s digital asset working group that Trump created in January. This group released a report in July outlining policy considerations for crypto.
Hassett is one of many reported crypto-friendly Fed chair picks who have backed Trump’s desire for the central bank to cut rates to juice up the markets. Powell’s time as chair is up in May, but his tenure on the Fed Board extends until January 2028.
Asked by Fox News on Tuesday if he would take a job as Fed chair, Hassett said, “Of course I’d have to say yes, because I want to serve my country and I want to serve my president.”
Kevin Hassett was speaking to Fox News on Tuesday. Source: Fox News
“President Trump and I have talked a lot about it,” he added.
Hassett owns Coinbase stocks, was a crypto adviser
In June, Hassett reportedly disclosed that he owned at least $1 million worth of Coinbase (COIN) stock.
He also disclosed that he received a $50,001 salary from Coinbase for serving on the crypto exchange’s Academic and Regulatory Advisory Council, which the company created in 2023 and also included Manhattan US Attorney Jay Clayton.
Hassett has previously served on the advisory board for the crypto fund manager One River Digital Asset Management and was chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers from 2017 to 2019, in Trump’s first term.
Also on the potential to take over the Fed is its vice supervision chair, Michelle Bowman, who said Fed staff should be allowed to invest a small amount in crypto to get a “working understanding of the underlying functionality.”
Whoever Trump picks, he’ll be pressuring them to cut rates. The Fed has cut rates twice this year by a total of 50 basis points.
The market has turned bullish on a Christmas cut when the Fed meets in December, with CME’s FedWatch putting the chances of a 25-basis-point cut at around 85%.
Trading platform Robinhood says prediction markets have emerged as one of its fastest-growing product lines in terms of revenue, and is now set to expand its business with a futures and derivatives exchange and clearinghouse.
Since launching its prediction markets in March in partnership with prediction market platform Kalshi, nine billion contracts have been traded by more than one million users, Robinhood said in a statement on Tuesday.
JB Mackenzie, the general manager of futures and international at Robinhood, said the platform is “seeing strong customer demand for prediction markets, and we’re excited to build on that momentum.”
Robinhood said it is also planning to grow its investment in prediction markets, with a futures and derivatives exchange and clearinghouse, to deepen its investment in prediction markets.
“Our investment in infrastructure will position us to deliver an even better experience and more innovative products for customers,” Mackenzie added.
Robinhood derivatives exchange will launch in 2026
The exchange will have Robinhood as the controlling partner and market maker, Susquehanna International Group as the day-one liquidity provider.
As part of the venture, Robinhood will also acquire MIAXdx, a Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) licensed derivatives clearing organization and swap execution facility. Robinhood said the derivatives exchange is expected to begin operations in 2026.
Prediction market interest surging
Prediction markets have become one of the hottest crypto offerings this year, with volumes on platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket holding firm amid increased mainstream media attention.
Kalshi is a regulated prediction market platform in the US that operates under the oversight of the CFTC and has a trading volume of $4.47 billion over the last 30 days, according to DeFi data aggregator DefiLlama.
Prediction market Kalshi has recorded a trading volume of $4.47 billion over the last 30 days. Source: DefiLlama
In comparison, Polymarket, a US-based cryptocurrency-based prediction market, has recorded $3.58 billion in trading volume over the last 30 days.
Crypto exchanges are also expanding into prediction markets
Crypto.com recently started offering a prediction markets platform, which is set to be integrated with Trump Media.
Crypto exchange Gemini is also planning to launch a prediction markets platform as part of an initiative to create a “super app,” and said on Nov. 11 it filed to become a designated contract market with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to offer the platform.
The pain may not be over yet for Bitcoin investors, according to one crypto analyst, arguing that there’s still more leverage that could be flushed out.
Crypto analyst James Check described the recent market meltdown as a “2-sigma long liquidation event,” which wiped out a “chunk of degen gamblers.”
Most of the leverage is gone, but the market “has an incredible nose that can sniff out the final hold-outs,” he added, cautioning that a further flush out could be on the cards.
“We wouldn’t be too surprised if we wick into the $70k-$80k zone to flush the final leverage pockets.”
A 2-sigma liquidation event in crypto refers to a significant market movement that triggers mass liquidations of leveraged positions, with “2-sigma,” or two standard deviations, indicating the statistical magnitude of the price swing.
Bitcoin shed over $24,000 in just ten days, dropping to a seven-month low of around $82,000 on Nov. 21.
Graph of Bitcoin’s 2-sigma liquidation event. Source: James Check
Bitcoin has found a local bottom
The crypto markets showed tentative signs of stabilization after last week’s dramatic sell-off, and may have found a local bottom, Augustine Fan, head of insights at crypto trading software service provider SignalPlus, told Cointelegraph.
“Markets are currently so oversold from both sentiment and technical perspectives (such as Bollinger Bands), and prices are likely to have seen local lows for now, absent any new exogenous factors (such as DAT forced selling),” she said.
Fan expects prices to range between $82,000 and $92,000 and identified the next significant price support around the $78,000 area.
“A sustained break below would open up further significant downside, but is not the base case scenario for now,”
Bitcoin whales are still distributing BTC
Analysts at blockchain data provider CryptoQuant identified a local bottom that could lead to a more sustained rebound.
“On-chain data shows a market shaped by institutional redistribution, structural weakness, and a rebound that may signal a local bottom,” said analyst Carmelo Alemán on Tuesday.
However, the crucial 1,000 to 10,000 BTC whale cohort is still selling, which prevents a full confirmation of the trend reversal, he added.
“The recovery is promising, but the end of the bearish phase requires a clear shift in whale behavior.”
