ETH derivatives positioning shows large traders increasing long exposure as sentiment stabilizes despite ongoing weakness in broader risk markets.
Public companies holding sizable ETH reserves continue to trade at discounts, signaling investors still lack conviction in a near-term recovery.
Ether (ETH) faced a sharp 15% drop Wednesday to Friday, falling to $2,625, its lowest level since July. The move wiped out $460 million of leveraged ETH bullish positions in two days and extended the decline to 47% from the Aug. 24 all-time high.
Demand from ETH bulls is still mostly absent in derivatives markets, although sentiment is slowly leaning toward a potential relief bounce to $3,200.
ETH perpetual futures annualized funding rate. Source: laevitas.ch
The annualized funding rate on ETH perpetual futures settled near 6% on Friday, rising from 4% the previous week. Under balanced conditions, the indicator typically fluctuates 6% to 12% to cover the cost of capital. While still far from a bullish setup, ETH futures showed some resilience even as macroeconomic uncertainty increased.
US consumer and housing data signal rising economic stress
A University of Michigan survey shows that 69% of consumers now expect unemployment to rise in the year ahead, more than twice the level from a year ago. Joanne Hsu, the director of the consumer survey, reportedly said: “Cost-of-living concerns and income worries dominate consumer views of the economy across the country.”
During an earnings call on Tuesday, Home Depot CEO Ted Decker said the company continues “to see softer engagement in larger discretionary projects,” mainly due to ongoing weakness in the housing market. Decker said that housing turnover as a share of total available supply has approached a 40-year low, while home prices have begun to adjust, according to Yahoo Finance.
Spot Ethereum ETFs daily net outflows, USD. Source: Farside Investors
Part of Ether traders’ fading confidence stems from nine straight sessions of net outflows in spot Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Roughly $1.33 billion has exited those products during that stretch, driven in part by institutional investors reducing exposure to risk assets. The US dollar strengthened against major foreign currencies as concerns around the artificial intelligence sector grew.
US Dollar index (DXY). Source: TradingView / Cointelegraph
The US Dollar Index (DXY) climbed to its highest level in six months as investors sought the safety of cash holdings. It might seem counterintuitive, given the US economy’s heavy ties to the tech sector, but traders are simply holding reserves until there is clearer visibility on employment data and whether consumer demand will recover after the extended US government shutdown.
ETH top traders’ long-to-short positions at OKX. Source: CoinGlass
Top traders at OKX increased their long positions even as Ether fell to $2,700 from $3,200 on Sunday. Confidence is gradually improving following strong quarterly earnings and year-end guidance from Nvidia (NVDA US), and after Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said he sees room for interest rate cuts in the near term as the labor market weakens.
The cryptocurrency bear market has been especially difficult for companies that built large ETH reserves through debt and equity issuance, such as BitMine Immersion (BMNR US) and ShapeLink Gaming (SBET US). Those stocks currently trade at discounts of 16% or more relative to their ETH holdings, highlighting investors’ lack of comfort.
From a derivatives standpoint, whales and market makers are increasingly convinced that $2,650 marked the bottom. Still, bullish conviction likely hinges on renewed spot Ether ETF inflows and clearer signals of a less restrictive monetary policy, meaning Ether’s potential return to $3,200 may take a few weeks.
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
Cryptocurrency markets continued their decline for a fourth consecutive week this week, raising concerns over the status of the bull market cycle.
Investor concerns grew on Thursday after a 10X Research report revealed that BitMine Immersion Technologies, the world’s largest corporate Ether (ETH) holder, is sitting on a cumulative unrealized loss of $3.7 billion on its total holdings.
Most digital asset treasuries (DATs) have suffered declines in their net asset value (NAV), making it difficult to raise funds for new investments or to attract new retail investors, leaving existing shareholders “trapped” with growing paper losses, according to 10x Research founder Markus Thiele
DATs are also facing significant pressure from the MSCI stock market index, which is considering excluding corporate crypto treasuries with a balance sheet comprising more than 50% of crypto assets.
The consultation is open until Dec. 31, with the results set to be made public on Jan. 15, 2026. The resulting changes will take effect in February.
Elsewhere, Bitcoin (BTC) sank to a six-month low of $82,000 on Friday, a level last seen in April when the markets were recovering from US President Donald Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcement, TradingView data shows.
BitMine sits on $3.7 billion loss as DAT “Hotel California” meets BlackRock’s staked ETH ETF
Concerns are mounting over the sustainability of corporate crypto-treasury firms as BlackRock moves forward with a staked Ether fund that analysts say could compete directly with existing digital-asset treasuries.
BitMine Immersion Technologies, the world’s largest corporate Ether holder, is currently down $1,000 per purchased ETH, implying a cumulative unrealized loss of $3.7 billion on its total holdings, according to a Thursday research report from crypto insights company 10x Research.
The decline in net asset value (NAV) across these firms is making it difficult to attract new retail investors while leaving many existing shareholders effectively “trapped” unless they sell at a steep loss, 10x Research founder Markus Thielen wrote in a LinkedIn post.
“When the premium inevitably shrinks to zero, as it is doing now, investors find themselves trapped in the structure, unable to get out without significant damage, a true Hotel California scenario,” he said. He added that, unlike exchange-traded funds (ETFs), digital-asset treasury companies, or DATs, “layer on complex, opaque, and often hedge-fund-like fee structures that can quietly erode returns.”
BitMine, Ethereum, right-hand side (RHS) price. Source: 10X Research
The mNAV ratio compares a company’s enterprise value to the value of its crypto holdings. An mNAV above 1 allows a company to raise funds by issuing new shares to accumulate digital assets. Values below 1 make it much harder to expand capital and holdings.
BitMine’s basic mNAV stood at 0.77 while its diluted mNAV stood at 0.92, according to data from Bitminetracker.
SEC to hold privacy and financial surveillance roundtable in December
The US Securities and Exchange Commission’s Crypto Task Force has scheduled a roundtable discussion centered on privacy and financial surveillance for December, as a renewed focus on privacy grips the cryptocurrency industry.
The privacy roundtable is slated for Dec. 15. Like other SEC roundtables, crypto industry executives and SEC officials will discuss common pain points and solutions, but no hard policy proposals will be submitted.
Privacy tokens like Zcash experienced a price surge beginning in October. Source: CoinMarketCap
“Authoritarians thrive when people have no privacy. When those in charge start being hostile to privacy protections, it is a major red flag,” said Naomi Brockwell, founder of the Ludlow Institute, an organization advocating for liberty through technology.
The renewed interest in privacy hearkens back to crypto’s cypherpunk roots, and one of the core reasons the cryptographic technology that underpins crypto was invented — to ensure secure communication channels between parties in hostile environments.
Coinbase launches ETH-backed loans as onchain lending tops $1.25 billion
Coinbase has launched Ether-backed loans for US users, allowing customers to borrow USDC against their ETH holdings without selling, in a new offering powered by Morpho and running on Base.
The exchange said the product is available across most US states, except New York, with variable rates and liquidation risk tied to market conditions. Users can borrow up to $1 million in USDC (USDC) stablecoin.
Coinbase plans to expand the program to other assets, including loans backed by its staked Ether token, cbETH.
The new product is being launched in collaboration with Morpho, a decentralized finance (DeFi) lending protocol. In September, Coinbase integrated Morpho into the Coinbase app, offering users a yield of up to 10.8% on their USDC holdings.
According to Dune data, Coinbase’s onchain lending markets have processed more than $1.25 billion in loan originations, backed by about $1.37 billion in deposited collateral. Roughly $810 million in loans is outstanding, with more than 13,500 wallets holding active borrow positions.
Advocacy group proposes DeFi solutions to address global poverty
The DeFi Education Fund, an advocacy organization focused on decentralized finance, has proposed utilizing the technology to reduce costs, aiming to address poverty in the United States and globally.
In a Wednesday blog post, the group said DeFi infrastructure could potentially save unbanked and underbanked people around the world about $30 billion annually by reducing remittance costs. The organization cited examples of workers sending funds home and paying fees to do so, which could be reduced “by up to 80%” with DeFi.
“The poverty premium [the expenses incurred by low-income households that wealthier individuals are often able to access at a lower cost] persists because the current, layered, antiquated financial infrastructure makes it expensive to serve low-income customers profitably,” said the DeFi Education Fund, adding:
“Nothing is free, and DeFi doesn’t eliminate costs entirely, but by removing intermediaries and leveraging software rather than outdated financial systems, we can dramatically reduce the cost of financial services for everyday people and give them greater control of their finances.”
Many advocates have proposed utilizing various applications of blockchain technology to address factors that contribute to poverty, such as reducing transaction times, eliminating or reducing fees, and increasing access to financial services. The DeFi Education Fund cited the increasing costs in the US associated with cashing paychecks without a bank account, using money orders and owning a home.
Mastercard taps Polygon to turn clunky crypto addresses into simple usernames
Mastercard is expanding its Crypto Credential program to self-custody wallets, allowing users to send and receive cryptocurrencies using verified, username-style aliases instead of long wallet addresses.
Polygon will be the first blockchain to support the rollout, while payments firm Mercuryo will handle identity verification and issue the aliases to users, according to a Tuesday press release shared with Cointelegraph.
“By streamlining wallet addresses and adding meaningful verification, Mastercard Crypto Credential is building trust in digital token transfers,” said Raj Dhamodharan, executive vice president of blockchain and digital assets at Mastercard.
Once verified by Mercuryo, users can link a human-readable alias to their self-custody wallet or request a soulbound token on Polygon that proves the wallet belongs to a verified individual.
Mastercard chooses Polygon to launch username-based crypto transfers. Source: Polygon
According to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, most of the 100 largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization ended the week in the red.
The privacy-centric Canton network’s (CC) token fell 32% marking the week’s biggest decline, followed by the Story (IP) token, down 29% during the past week.
Total value locked in DeFi. Source: DefiLlama
Thanks for reading our summary of this week’s most impactful DeFi developments. Join us next Friday for more stories, insights and education regarding this dynamically advancing space.
Ethereum layer-2 network Aztec launched its mainnet Wednesday — albeit with partial functionality — marking the launch of one of the few fully decentralized networks in the ecosystem.
According to an Aztec email viewed by Cointelegraph, Aztec has launched its “Ignition” mainnet chain, a functional consensus-producing chain that generates blocks, but without the smart contract execution layer.
According to L2Beat, only the trustless, optimistic rollup network Facet v1 and Aztec’s old decentralized finance (DeFi) anonymization project, Zk.Money are classed as a stage 2 system with full decentralization.
Together with Facet, Aztec is among the few protocols with no centralized “training wheels,” as ownership of the rollup contract was renounced, and Aztec is neither a rollup processor nor an operator. Users or third parties must run the rollup system themselves to withdraw or transact.
In an email sent to the Aztec mailing list subscribers, the Aztec team highlighted that “neither the Aztec Foundation, core team, nor investors can run nodes, stake, or participate in governance for the next 12 months.” “This makes Aztec the first community-launched L2 in Ethereum history,” the team told subscribers.
Aztec staking is now available to holders, allowing them to participate in network consensus, earn block rewards and shape governance decisions. The email suggests that early stakeholders receive higher rewards because “early participants benefit from distributing block rewards amongst fewer stakers.”
The staking dashboard indicates that 107.2 million AZTEC tokens are currently staked. Both the investors and the development team are currently barred from staking, so it is likely that those funds are sourced from the 200 million AZTEC sold in the genesis sequencer sale, which targets whitelisted community members explicitly to bootstrap the mainnet.
The minimum stake amount (also applicable to delegated stakes) is 200,000 AZTEC, equivalent to about $6,000 at the prices of the ongoing community-only Continuous Clearing Auctions phase. Still, the tokens may be sold at higher prices than the current $0.03 per AZTEC if demand increases.
Aztec is currently in the whitelisted community members-only phase of its token sale, attracting $2.77 million worth of assets from 2,209 unique bidders since its opening on Nov. 13. This phase will close on Dec. 1, just before the public sale starts on Dec. 2 and closes on Dec. 6.
Aztec token sale dates. Source: Aztec
The tokens purchased through the sale will be locked for a minimum of 90 days and up to 12 months, depending on whether the community votes to release them early. The sale will distribute 1.547 billion tokens, representing 14.95% of the total supply.
Aztec claims that the token sale is taking place at a 75% discount relative to the implied network valuation from previous fundraising efforts. According to ICO Drops data, Aztec raised $2.1 million in its seed round, $17 million in its Series A, and $100 million in its Series B funding rounds. Backers include Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin, Coinbase Ventures, Paradigm, Consensys, Andreessen Horowitz and HashKey Capital, among others.
Still, Aztec’s own token sale disclaimer warns that “any reference to a prior valuation or percentage discount is provided solely to inform potential purchasers of how the initial floor price for the token sale was calculated.” The floor price currently stands at 0.000010 ETH, or about $0.03 per AZTEC — putting the project at a fully diluted valuation of $310 million. The disclaimer also notes that unsold tokens “may be claimed back by the Foundation.”
On Dec. 6, a Uniswap pool containing 273 million AZTEC (2.64% of supply) will go live to bootstrap liquidity. Tokens bought on the secondary market will not be subject to lockups.
Concerns are mounting over the sustainability of corporate crypto-treasury firms as BlackRock moves forward with a staked Ether fund that analysts say could compete directly with existing digital-asset treasuries.
BitMine Immersion Technologies, the world’s largest corporate Ether (ETH) holder, is currently down $1,000 per purchased ETH, implying a cumulative unrealized loss of $3.7 billion on its total holdings, according to a Thursday research report from crypto insights company 10x Research.
The decline in net asset value (NAV) across these firms is making it difficult to attract new retail investors while leaving many existing shareholders effectively “trapped” unless they sell at a steep loss, 10x Research founder Markus Thielen wrote in a LinkedIn post.
“When the premium inevitably shrinks to zero, as it is doing now, investors find themselves trapped in the structure, unable to get out without significant damage, a true Hotel California scenario,” he said. He added that, unlike exchange-traded funds (ETFs), digital-asset treasury companies, or DATs, “layer on complex, opaque, and often hedge-fund-like fee structures that can quietly erode returns.”
BitMine, Ethereum, right-hand side (RHS) price. Source: 10X Research
The mNAV ratio compares a company’s enterprise value to the value of its crypto holdings. An mNAV above 1 allows a company to raise funds by issuing new shares to accumulate digital assets. Values below 1 make it much harder to expand capital and holdings.
BitMine’s basic mNAV stood at 0.77 while its diluted mNAV stood at 0.92, according to data from Bitminetracker.
BitMine holds about 3.56 million ETH valued at roughly $10.7 billion, representing 2.94% of the total Ether supply. The firm’s average cost basis is $4,051 per ETH.
BlackRock has registered a new staked Ether ETF offering in Delaware, marking the first step for the $13.5 trillion asset management giant’s diversification into Ethereum-based products, Cointelegraph reported earlier on Thursday.
BlackRock’s proposed Ether staking ETF could offer another low-cost, yield-generating fund, without the hidden costs associated with traditional treasury firms. This development may threaten the economics of DATs, according to 10x Research.
“With BlackRock now seeking approval to stake ETH in its ETF, offering a low-cost source of yield, the economics of DATs are likely to face increasing scrutiny,” the research report states.
More investors may start reallocating toward a potential staked Ether fund from BlackRock when they realize that the 0.25% management fee is far smaller compared to the embedded costs of DATs, according to 10X.
Asset managers REX-Osprey and Grayscale have already launched staked ETH ETF products in September and October.
Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest increased its exposure to crypto-related stocks on Wednesday, purchasing Bullish, Circle Internet Group and BitMine Immersion Technologies across multiple exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as crypto stocks slid deeper into the red.
According to ARK’s daily trade disclosure, the ARK Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF) bought 48,011 shares of Bullish, while the ARK Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW) added 92,670 shares. The ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) made the largest move of the group, purchasing 322,917 shares of Bullish, bringing the total to $16.8 million.
ARK followed this with sizeable buys of Circle, the company behind the USDC (USDC) stablecoin. ARKF picked up 22,327 shares and ARKW snapped up 43,174, while ARKK added 150,518 shares, acquiring around $15 million worth of shares in the stablecoin issuer.
ARK also added BitMine shares. ARKF purchased 26,923 shares, and ARKW added 51,954. ARKK accumulated the single largest amount at 181,774 shares, bringing the total amount to $7.6 million.
The buying came as crypto-exposed stocks broadly weakened as the crypto market continues to retreat from October highs.
Bullish fell 3.63% on the day to $36.39, continuing its recent slide before recovering slightly in after-hours trading. Circle closed the session down nearly 9% at $69.72. BitMine finished the day down 9.5% at $29.18, though it recovered more than 6% after hours.
BitMine share end the day down by 9.5%. Source: Google Finance
Michael Saylor-led Bitcoin treasury firm Strategy was hit even harder, dropping 9.82% on the day before recovering some losses in the after-hours.
Notably, ARK has been on a crypto buying spree over the past week amid tumbing crypto prices. On Monday, the firm purchased $10.2 million worth of BitMine shares as its stock price slid to a new record low.
As Cointelegraph reported, Nvidia delivered another blockbuster quarter on Wednesday, posting $57 billion in revenue and $31.9 billion in profit, both well above Wall Street expectations. The chip maker also issued a strong fourth-quarter revenue forecast of $65 billion, easing weeks of market anxiety over whether AI demand was starting to cool.
The upbeat earnings boosted sentiment across tech and crypto-linked equities. Nvidia shares jumped more than 5% after hours, and the momentum spilled over into Big Tech, with Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta all posting after-hours gains.
Money managers may need to rethink their approach to digital assets, with over a third of young, wealthy investors in a recent US survey indicating they had moved on from advisers who don’t offer crypto exposure.
Crypto payments provider Zerohash’s survey of 500 US investors aged 18 to 40, released on Wednesday, found that 35% had moved money away from advisers who didn’t offer access to crypto.
Those surveyed had incomes between $100,000 and $1 million, and more than half of those who moved money due to an advisers lack of crypto offerings said they had moved between $250,000 and $1 million.
Over half of the investors who moved assets away from advisers over crypto were in the $250,000 to $1 million range. Source: Zerohash
Zerohash said that over four-fifths of those surveyed said their confidence in crypto was boosted due to its adoption by major finance institutions such as BlackRock, Fidelity and Morgan Stanley.
Crypto holdings are prevalent and set to grow
Zerohash found that respondents with incomes of $500,000 and up were “leading the exodus,” with half having moved from advisers over crypto access.
The survey also found 84% of all respondents planned to increase their crypto holdings in the next year, with nearly half saying they would “increase their allocations significantly.”
Advisers “risk falling behind”
Zerohash said the findings show that crypto “has become essential to modern portfolio strategy” and many wealthy investors “are not waiting for their private wealth managers to catch up.”
“Advisers who adapt early can strengthen client loyalty and capture new growth, while those who delay risk falling behind,” they said.
They added that investors were clear with their expectations and wanted “insured, compliant crypto access.”
Zerohash said based on its survey results, its playbook for advisers to win investors is to offer crypto on “the same dashboard as traditional assets” with insured custody.
“Investors expect more than Bitcoin and Ethereum,” it added. “Ninety-two percent say access to a broader range of digital assets is important.”
A majority of investors said they want advisers to offer easier portfolio integration of crypto. Source: Zerohash
Meanwhile, asset managers have begun offering exchange-traded products with exposure to a wide range of cryptocurrencies, with products tied to altcoins including Solana (SOL), XRP (XRP) and Dogecoin (DOGE).
More novel products have featured staking, which rewards users for locking up tokens to secure a blockchain. Major issuer BlackRock is also seemingly set to offer staking exposure, with a filing for a staked Ether (ETH) exchange-traded fund in Delaware on Wednesday.
Brazilian crypto holders are urged to be on the lookout for a sophisticated hacking campaign that includes a hijacking worm and banking trojan shared via WhatsApp messages.
According to a new report from Trustwave’s cybersecurity research team SpiderLabs, the banking trojan, known as “Eternidade Stealer” is being pushed via social engineering on messaging application WhatsApp such as “fake government programs, delivery notifications,” messages from friends and fraudulent investment groups.
“WhatsApp continues to be one of the most exploited communication channels in Brazil’s cybercrime ecosystem. Over the past two years, threat actors have refined their tactics, using the platform’s immense popularity to distribute banker trojans and information-stealing malware,” said Spiderlabs researchers Nathaniel Morales, John Basmayor, and Nikita Kazymirskyi.
Explaining the process in Layman’s terms, clicking the worm link in WhatsApp sets off a chain reaction that infects the victim with both the worm and banking trojan.
The worm hijacks the account and obtains the victim’s contact list. It utilizes “smart filtering” to ignore business contacts and groups to target individual contacts for a more efficient process.
Meanwhile, the banking trojan is a file automatically downloaded onto the victim’s device that deploys the Eternidade Stealer in the background, which is able to scan for financial data and logins to a range of Brazilian banks and fintech or crypto exchanges and wallets.
Infographic explaining how the malware attacks devices and how the hack progresses. Source: SpiderLabs
The malware also has a clever way to avoid detection or being shutdown. Instead of having a fixed server address, it utilizes a pre-set gmail account to check for new commands via email. This enables the hackers to change commands by sending new emails.
“One notable feature of this malware is that it uses hardcoded credentials to log into its email account, from which it retrieves its C2 server. It is a very clever way to update its C2, maintain persistence, and evade detections or takedowns on a network level. If the malware cannot connect to the email account, it uses a hardcoded fallback C2 address,” the report reads.
According to data from crypto analytics platform Chainalysis, Brazil is the largest country for crypto adoption in Latin America, and ranks fifth in the firm’s 2025 Global Crypto Adoption Index Top 20.
The index is based on the countries’ usage of different types of crypto services, and takes into account other factors, including population size and purchasing power.
How to stay safe
Users of apps such as WhatsApp are advised to tread with caution with any link sent to them, even if it’s from a trustworthy contact.
A helpful tactic can be to message them on a separate app to confirm if the link is okay, and to be suspicious of a link sent out of the blue with limited context given.
Keeping software updated can also help protect people from potential bugs targeting older versions, while anti-virus software can also potentially help flag issues.
If someone has been hacked, it is important to immediately freeze all potential access points to banking and crypto services to stop the bleed. Tracking funds can also help exchanges, researchers or authorities track where the assets are going, potentially helping them to freeze hacker wallets.
Coinbase is expanding its decentralized exchange trading platform, called “DeFi Mullet,” to Brazil, providing them with access to tens of thousands of tokens without needing to leave the Coinbase app.
Powered by Coinbase’s Ethereum layer 2 Base, DeFi Mullet first launched in the US on Oct. 8 and is designed to abstract away the complexities of using decentralized finance protocols.
“Using our DEX integration, users can trade on popular DEXs, like Aerodrome and Uniswap, without leaving the familiar ease of the Coinbase interface,” Coinbase said on Wednesday.
Users can trade without incurring network fees by using a self-custody wallet, thereby maintaining full control over their tokens. Coinbase didn’t state when the DeFi feature would officially roll out in Brazil.
The move comes amid new crypto regulations in Brazil that bring crypto companies under banking-style oversight, classifying stablecoin transactions and some self-custody wallet transfers as foreign-exchange operations.
Brazil has a population of 215 million and has reportedly been weighing a tax on crypto for international payments as it moves to adopt the Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework, which more than 70 countries have committed to.
DeFi Mullet is part of Coinbase’s “everything app” vision
DeFi Mullet is part of Coinbase’s vision to become an “everything app,” enabling its more than 100 million users to trade “anything from anywhere in the world with 24/7 access.”
Part of that vision includes advancing stablecoin adoption via Circle’s USDC (USDC) stablecoin, tokenized stocks, prediction markets, and early-stage token sales.
Coinbase said Base saw a rise in adoption across trading, payments, lending and social apps in Q3, while it also launched Flashblocks — a transaction preconfirmation feature that enables 200-millisecond block times.
Coinbase is also committed to building a Bitcoin (BTC) treasury, having added 2,772 BTC in Q3 to bring its total to 14,548 BTC, currently worth $1.3 billion.
It comes as Coinbase increased its net income over fivefold to $432.6 million year-over-year in the third quarter, with total revenue rising to $1.9 billion, up 55% from the same period a year ago.
Coinbase shares have held steady in 2025
However, Coinbase (COIN) shares continue to fall amid a broader market correction, down 25.2% to $257.29 over the last month.
COIN is now trading almost exactly where it started in 2025, while other crypto stocks such as MARA Holdings and Strategy are down 33.8% and 35.6% over the same time frame.
Exchange-traded product (ETP) provider 21shares launched its Solana exchange-traded fund (ETF) on Wednesday, marking the fifth SOL (SOL) ETF offering in the US.
“21Shares is debuting its spot Solana ETF (TSOL) today, which will have a fee of 21 basis points (BPS) and is opening with $100 million in assets under management (AUM).
The Solana ETFs have now taken in $2 billion as a group, with inflows basically every day, not bad considering the ‘extreme fear’ right now,” he wrote.
TSOL debuts trading with over $100 million in assets under management. Source: Eric Balchunas
Market analysts and industry executives have said that 2026 could be a monumental year for altcoin ETFs, with the potential introduction of over 100 new investment vehicles attracting fresh capital flows, according to Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise.
Although crypto ETFs provide a vehicle to attract capital flows from passive investors in traditional financial markets, investment flows work both ways, boosting underlying asset prices when demand is strong, but hurting prices when net outflows are high.
The price of SOL has decreased by approximately 14% over the last seven days, despite the ETF launches, according to data from CoinMarketCap.
The price of SOL cratered following a market-wide crash in October. Source: CoinMarketCap
Bitwise’s Solana ETF (BSOL) launched in October, attracting nearly $500 million in net inflows in the three weeks since its debut, making it one of the most successful ETF launches in history, according to Hougan.
In January, analysts at banking and financial services company JP Morgan forecast that SOL ETFs would attract billions of dollars to SOL.
JP Morgan analysts added that the price performance of SOL and XRP (XRP) ETFs could overshadow the price performance of Ether (ETH) ETFs in the first six months after they debuted in the United States.
Bitcoin’s (BTC) drawdown on Monday pushed the asset into a 26.7% loss, narrowly overtaking the 26.5% slide seen in April, and marking the steepest correction of the current bull market. The move red-lined multiple market structure indicators, suggesting the current correction could be a final leverage washout phase.
Bitcoin’s 26.7% correction is now the largest of the cycle.
The Crypto Fear & Greed index shows ‘Extreme Fear’ among investors, but as a counterindicator, it could be a sign that Bitcoin is trading at a discount.
“Extreme fear” is usually followed by profitable Bitcoin price action
Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. said that the local market stress index remained elevated following the sharp sell-off on Monday, currently sitting at 67.82, above the system’s WATCH threshold of 64 but still below levels associated with critical breakdowns.
The highest tension point occurred during BTC’s collapse on Monday, when realized volatility surged to a 4.55 Z-score and aggressive selling signaled stress alerts.
Over the past 24 hours, the index has eased into the 62–68 range, though its short-term slope (+2.62) signaled renewed stress building within the market.
Bitcoin local stress index. Source: Axel Adler Jr./X
Sentiment indicators are painting a similar picture. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell below 10 before rebounding slightly to 15, but is still locked in Extreme Fear. Historically, dips into this zone have been far more constructive in the previous years.
Across past cycles, whenever the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has fallen to 10 or below, Bitcoin has consistently delivered strong forward returns. On average, prices increased by 10% within a week, maintained similar strength over 15–30 days, and accelerated to 23% by day 80 and 33% by six months.
Bitcoin returns post Fear & Greed Index drop below
Economist Alex Kruger noted that in all 11 capitulation events since 2018, where the index hit this extreme level, short-term weakness was common, but almost every event produced a rebound. The pattern is one of Bitcoin’s most reliable behavioral edges: when fear reaches its peak, forward returns skew heavily to the upside.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin analyst VICTOR claimed that the current drawdown is “the close your eyes and bid type of range,” historically associated with late-stage flushes rather than cycle tops.
Short-term holder capitulation deepens, but the end could be near
Fresh onchain data indicated Bitcoin was entering one of the most severe short-term capitulation phases of this cycle. STH’s profit-ratio (SOPR) has fallen back to 0.97, confirming that short-term holders are consistently selling at a loss. The ratio has now spent several weeks below 1.0, forming a clear capitulation band, a structure that has historically appeared near cyclical turning points.
Bitcoin SOPR trend. Source: CryptoQuant
Similarly, STH-MVRV has dropped far below 1.0, indicating that nearly all recent buyers are underwater. This mirrored past episodes where unrealized losses spike, panic selling accelerates, and weak hands exhaust their supply.
The transfer of 65,200 BTC to exchanges at a loss further validates that fear is active, not theoretical. While this does not guarantee an immediate reversal, the combination of a sub-1.0 SOPR, deeply negative MVRV, and loss-driven exchange inflows suggests that the correction could be entering its final stages.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
