Crypto market analysts are confident that Bitcoin’s recovery could continue as the cryptocurrency has begun to move higher since its bottom at just above $82,000 on Friday.
Tech stocks and crypto markets dumped over the past two weeks “because of the market flip-flopping on expectations for a rate cut,” Capriole Fund founder Charles Edwards posted to X on Monday.
“As the market reverts, expect it will carry Bitcoin somewhat higher,” he added.
Analysts at wealth manager Swissblock added that Bitcoin (BTC) has taken its first real step toward forming a bottom.
“The Risk-Off Signal is dropping sharply, which tells us two things: selling pressure has eased, and the worst of the capitulation is likely behind us, for now.”
They added that this week is critical, as it needs “to see selling pressure continue to fade.”
However, there is often a second selling wave, which is weaker than the first and with price holding the previous lows, which becomes one of the most reliable bottom signals, Swissblock said.
“That second wave usually marks seller exhaustion and a shift in control back toward the bulls,” the analysts added.
Bitcoin selling pressure is falling. Source: Swissblock
TradingView shows Bitcoin dropped to $80,600 on Coinbase on Friday, its lowest level since mid-April. The fall took the depth of its correction from its early October all-time high above $126,000 to 36%.
Fed rate cut odds increase
The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December fell to around 30% last week, but it has since returned to 70%, said Edwards.
The CME Fed Watch Tool, which tracks target rate probabilities, currently shows 69.3% odds of a 0.25 basis point cut at the central bank’s Dec. 10 meeting.
“What a difference two days make in market expectations,” said market research X account “Global Markets Investor,” who shared a chart of the prediction flipping on Polymarket.
Fed rate cut predictions flip back toward 70%. Source: Global Markets Investor
Liquidity injection imminent
“I really would not be surprised to see the Fed announce something at the next meeting in the way of ‘reserves management’ … essentially, liquidity expansion,” said market analyst “Sykodelic” on Sunday.
The central bank has to inject liquidity at some point, “otherwise they go bankrupt,” they added.
“If you are betting on a year-long bear market, you are basically betting that the USA will let itself go broke.”
Interest rate cuts and increased liquidity are typically bullish for high-risk assets, such as cryptocurrencies, and previous periods of quantitative easing have been followed by significant rallies.
Bitcoin open interest has dropped off as the cryptocurrency’s price has slid over the past month, which an analyst argues could see Bitcoin hit a bottom and spark a “renewed bullish trend.”
Open interest in terms of Bitcoin (BTC) has seen its “sharpest 30-day drop of the cycle” at around 1.3 million BTC, currently worth $114 billion with Bitcoin trading at $87,500, analyst “Darkfost” posted to CryptoQuant on Sunday.
The cascading price of BTC over the past few weeks “continues to trigger liquidations,” pushing traders to double down or readjust their strategies. However, it now appears investors are halting futures trading to “reduce risk exposure.
“Historically, these cleansing phases have often been essential to forming a solid bottom and setting the stage for a renewed bullish trend. Deleveraging, forced closures of overly optimistic positions and a gradual decline in speculative exposure help rebalance the market.”
Darkfost noted that the last time Bitcoin open interest fell so quickly over 30 days “was during the 2022 bear market, which highlights how significant the current cleanup really is.”
Bitcoin has declined by 20% over the past month and has seen a decline of over 30% since hitting a peak of over $126,000 nearly two months ago in early October.
Bull market could return with climb above $90,000
Crypto analyst and MN Fund founder Michaël Van de Poppe argued this coming week is going to be “decisive” for the price of BTC and chances of it hitting a new all-time high in the near future.
In an X post on Sunday, Van de Poppe said that if BTC can surge back and stay between the region of $90,000 to $96,000, “then the chances of a revival toward a new ATH have significantly increased.”
“Fear and panic are max during the past days. Those are the best opportunities in the markets,” he said.
The New York Stock Exchange has approved the listing of Grayscale’s Dogecoin and XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs), teeing up both to launch on Monday.
NYSE Arca, a subsidiary of the exchange, filedwith the Securities and Exchange Commission on Friday to certify “its approval for listing and registration” of the Grayscale XRP Trust ETF (GXRP) and the Grayscale Dogecoin Trust ETF (GDOG).
Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas posted the NYSE’s approvals to X on Sunday, and said Grayscale’s ETF tied to Chainlink (LINK) will follow in the next week or so.
“Grayscale Dogecoin ETF $GDOG approved for listing on NYSE, scheduled to begin trading Monday. Their XRP spot is also launching on Monday,” he said. “$GLNK coming soon as well, week after I think.”
The signing off by the NYSE marks the final approval needed for Grayscale’s spot Dogecoin (DOGE) ETF to go live, one of many ETFs tied to speculative cryptocurrencies that asset managers have brought to market in recent weeks.
Grayscale’s Dogecoin ETF is a conversion of the firm’s existing trust into an ETF that tracks the price of DOGE. Balchunas tipped the ETF’s first-day volume to hit around $11 million.
XRP ETFs flood the market
The Grayscale’s XRP (XRP) ETF is expected to launch alongside a competing product from Franklin Templeton, while an XRP ETF from WisdomTree is also awaiting launch.
The launch of Canary Capital’s ETF (XRPC) on Nov. 13 marked the first spot XRP ETF in the US. The fund got off to a solid start, fetching over $250 million of inflows during its first trading day.
Meanwhile, Bitwise, 21Shares and CoinShares have also launched XRP ETFs this month, as competing products flooded the market following the end of the US government shutdown and the SEC loosening its checks on crypto ETFs.
Despite ETFs typically being bullish for the underlying asset, XRP has declined by around 18% since the start of November, according to data from CoinGecko.
The backlash against financial services company JP Morgan from the Bitcoin (BTC) community and supporters of BTC treasury company Strategy continued to swell on Sunday as calls to “boycott” JP Morgan grew.
The anger from the Bitcoin community followed news that the MSCI, formerly Morgan Stanley Capital International, an index company that sets criteria for index inclusion, is likely to exclude crypto treasury companies from its indexes in January 2026.
JP Morgan shared the MSCI news in a research note. “I just pulled $20 million from Chase and suing them for credit card malfeasance,” real estate investor and Bitcoin advocate Grant Cardone said in response to a call to boycott the financial services giant.
“Crash JP Morgan and buy Strategy and BTC,” Bitcoin advocate Max Keiser said, as the online boycott movement gained steam.
The exclusion of crypto treasury companies from stock indexes could trigger an automatic sell-off of their shares from funds and asset managers that are mandated to buy specific types of financial instruments, and could negatively impact crypto markets.
Strategy founder Michael Saylor breaks his silence and responds to MSCI
Strategy entered the Nasdaq 100, a stock market index of the 100 largest companies by market capitalization on the tech-focused stock exchange, in December 2024
This allowed Strategy to reap the benefits of passive capital flows from funds and investors holding the Nasdaq 100.
Strategy founder Michael Saylor responded to the proposed MSCI policy change on Friday, saying, “Strategy is not a fund, not a trust, and not a holding company.”
“Funds and trusts passively hold assets. Holding companies sit on investments. We create, structure, issue, and operate,” Saylor said, adding that Strategy is a “Bitcoin-backed structured finance company.”
The proposed MSCI listing criteria change would force any treasury company with 50% or more of its balance sheet in crypto to lose its index status.
These companies would then face one of two choices: reduce crypto holdings to be below the threshold to qualify for index inclusion, or lose the passive capital flows from the market indexes.
A sudden sell-off from crypto treasury companies impacted by the proposed MSCI change could force digital asset prices down, according to analysts.
Grayscale has said that Chainlink will be at the center of the next major phase of blockchain adoption, referring to the project as the “critical connective tissue” that links crypto to traditional finance.
In a recent research report, the asset manager argued that Chainlink (LINK)’s growing suite of software tools is emerging as essential infrastructure for tokenization, crosschain settlement and the broader shift toward real-world assets on blockchain rails.
“A more accurate description of Chainlink today would be modular middleware that lets on-chain applications safely use off-chain data, interact across blockchains, and meet enterprise-grade compliance needs,” Grayscale wrote.
The company added that this expanding footprint has helped turn LINK into the largest non–layer 1 crypto asset by market cap (excluding stablecoins), giving investors exposure to multiple ecosystems rather than a single chain.
According to Grayscale, tokenization is the clearest pathway where Chainlink’s value becomes obvious. Today, nearly all financial assets, from securities to real estate, are still recorded on off-chain ledgers. For these assets to gain the efficiency and programmability of blockchains, they must be tokenized, verified and connected to external data sources.
“We expect Chainlink to play a central role orchestrating the process of tokenization, and it has announced a variety of partnerships, including with S&P Global and FTSE/Russel, that should help it do so,” the asset manager wrote.
The tokenized asset market has grown from $5 billion to more than $35.6 billion since early 2023, according to RWA.xyz.
The pilot connected Kinexys Digital Payments, JPMorgan’s permissioned payment network, with Ondo Chain’s testnet, which specializes in tokenized real-world assets. Using Chainlink’s Runtime Environment (CRE) as the coordination layer, the settlement exchanged Ondo’s tokenized US Treasurys fund, OUSG, for fiat payment without the assets leaving their native chains.
Bloomberg Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas has warned that Zcash may adversely impact Bitcoin at this crucial moment.
In a recent post on X, Balchunas said Zcash (ZEC) has “third-party candidate vibes, like Gary Johnson or Jill Stein,” arguing that pushing a separate privacy coin risks “splitting the vote” when Bitcoin (BTC) needs unified political and cultural support.
Balchunas’s comment comes as the Bitcoin vs Zcash debate intensifies. Arman Meguerian, founder and CEO of Timestamp, dismissed the idea that BTC supporters are pivoting to Zcash. “I don’t know a single Bitcoin maxi that thinks about Zcash at all,” he wrote on X.
Jan3 founder Samson Mow echoed the sentiment, claiming that Bitcoin maxis are “only looking at Zcash to roll our eyes at it.”
Eric Balchunas says Zcash has third-party candidate vibes. Source: Eric Balchunas
The backlash grew sharper as other industry personalities accused Zcash advocates of manufacturing hype.
Mark Moss, a Bitcoin-focused venture capitalist, seasoned entrepreneur, and educator, recently posted screenshots of outreach messages from marketing agencies offering paid ZEC collaborations. “Wonder why ZCash is showing up EVERYwhere all of a sudden?” he asked.
Market analyst Rajat Soni also warned that recent excitement around ZEC looks like an attempt to “find exit liquidity,” pointing to fabricated headlines claiming that Fidelity analysts predicted Zcash reaching $100,000.
Nevertheless, not everyone is skeptical of Zcash’s recent resurgence. The Winklevoss twins, founders of Gemini and early Bitcoin investors, recently launched Cypherpunk Tech, the first Zcash-focused treasury company.
In an interview with Cointelegraph, they described Zcash as “encrypted Bitcoin”, arguing that Bitcoin is best for storing value while Zcash excels in private transactions. They view Zcash as complementary, not competitive.
A significant crash for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market doesn’t look likely at this stage, according to macroeconomist Lyn Alden.
“We haven’t hit euphoric levels in this cycle; therefore, there is less of a reason to expect a kind of major capitulation,” Alden said during a recent episode of the What BitcoinDid podcast.
“The cycle could go on for longer than people can expect, because it’s not driven by the halving, it’s driven by broader macro and interest in the asset itself,” Alden said, shutting down the idea that the four-year cycle is still intact.
The sentiment mirrors comments from other crypto industry executives, such as Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan, who recently dismissed the four-year-cycle theory and said the market is likely in “for a good few years.”
Alden says market outcomes usually not as good or bad as people expect
However, not everyone agrees with Alden that a major capitulation is off the table. Vineet Budki, CEO of venture firm Sigma Capital, recently told Cointelegraph that he expects a Bitcoin (BTC) retracement of 65% to 70% in the next two years.
Lyn Alden spoke to Danny Knowles on the What Bitcoin Did podcast. Source: What Bitcoin Did
Alden said market outcomes rarely match the extremes investors imagine. “It’s usually not as good as people expect and it’s usually not as bad as people expect is often how these things play out,” she said.
It comes as Bitcoin has been in a downtrend since reaching new all-time highs of $125,100 on Oct. 5, dropping to as low as $80,700 on Thursday before recovering slightly to $85,710 at the time of publication, according to CoinMarketCap.
Bitcoin is down 22.46% over the past 30 days. Source: CoinMarketCap
Market sentiment has also fallen, as many traders were expecting year-end strength and even new highs, with some, like BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, calling for a move toward $250,000.
Alden says, “No one is owed a bull market”
Bitcoin’s recent price plunge has traders obsessing over when the next uptrend will begin, but Alden said investors need to stop treating bull cycles like they’re guaranteed.
On Friday, the Japanese government approved a $135-billion (21.3 trillion Japanese yen) stimulus package, mainly aimed at price relief and subsidizing gas and household electricity bills.
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and her cabinet believe the plan will dampen inflation by 0.7 percentage points on average from February to April. But markets, including crypto markets, are concerned.
The yen has significantly weakened against the US dollar, hitting 10-month lows; Japanese government 10-year bond yields reached 1.84% on Thursday, the highest level since the 2008 financial crisis. Major government spending like this stimulus package is likely to lead to the issuance of more bonds, further weakening the yen, which would prompt the Bank of Japan to intervene with rate hikes. That could trigger mass sell-offs in the US.
The yen is down over 3% since Takaichi was elected, exactly one month ago on Oct. 21. Source: TradingView
It could happen soon. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Friday, “We are alarmed by recent one-sided, sharp moves in the currency market.” In tandem, Bank of Japan governor Kazuo Ueda said that the bank will discuss the “feasibility and timing” of a rate hike in subsequent meetings.
Bitcoin (BTC) has continued to slump amid this news. Historically, a weakened yen has served as a profitable haven for Bitcoin traders. They could borrow yen at low-interest rates, convert it into US dollars and invest in high-yield assets. However, Japan’s record debt levels and a potential rate hike have prompted traders to reconsider the yen’s stability.
Bitcoin continues its downward spiral amid news of Japan’s stimulus package. Source: TradingView
PubKey opens in Washington, DC
It hasn’t all been doom and gloom for Bitcoin this week. Market hopes rose on Thursday when Bitcoin-themed bar PubKey opened its doors in Washington, DC for the first time.
A surprise appearance by pro-crypto Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent made the rounds on X. Some viewed it as a bullish sign: “Having the Secretary of the Treasury at the Pubkey DC launch seems like a moment I could easily look back on and say ‘wow, it was all so obvious’,” treasury company Strive’s Ben Werkman said in an X post.
Photos from the PubKey launch in DC. Source: Alex Thorn
PubKey first launched in New York City in late 2022. The concept is simple: Combine a local watering hole with a love for crypto. It’s seen notable success, particularly after US President Donald Trump made an appearance during his 2024 campaign run. He ordered 50 burgers and 50 Diet Cokes — and paid for them with Bitcoin on the Lightning Network.
His appearance brought PubKey onto the national stage. “We had people traveling from the tri-state area coming into PubKey,” owner Thomas Pacchia recently told Cointelegraph Magazine. “After that, some people traveled across the US or even globally.”
The bar doesn’t endorse a political party. But PubKey’s expansion to the nation’s political hub is no mistake. “Bitcoin certainly deserves an embassy in Washington, DC,” he said.
Up north, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has had his 2025 budget approved by parliament. Tucked away in the document’s 600-page depths is a section outlining the governance of stablecoins.
Under the budget, stablecoin issuers will need to hold sufficient reserves, set clear redemption policies and implement robust risk management frameworks. Overseen by the Bank of Canada, $10 million will be allocated over a two-year period to ensure smooth operations.
It’s a leap forward for the Canadian stablecoin market. Though the bill is modeled on the United States’ GENIUS Act, there are some differences. For example, Canada’s bill doesn’t ban unlicensed issuing. Instead, it curbs this problem by requiring registration. Any person can become an approved stablecoin issuer with the Bank of Canada — if they jump through the proper hoops.
UK’s NCA identifies billion-dollar crypto laundering ring
There is a small bank in Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan, that may look like any other. Keremet Bank offers mortgages and loans and even celebrates International Women’s Day.
But according to the UK’s National Crime Agency (NCA), it’s owned by money launderers, and they’re using it to wash Britain’s drug money with cryptocurrency.
Last year, on Christmas Day, a company called Altair Holding acquired a 75% stake in Keremet Bank. The NCA has linked the company to George Rossi, a US-sanctioned Ukrainian national and the head of the money laundering network TGR. This network is one of two that the agency has exposed for laundering funds for cybercriminals, drug dealers and firearm traffickers across at least 28 cities and towns in the UK. It has also reportedly helped sanctioned Russians bypass financial restrictions.
“For a fee, the launderers collect ‘dirty’ cash generated from the drugs trade, firearms supply, and organised immigration crime, and convert it to ‘clean’ cryptocurrency,” the NCA said in a report released on Friday.
Operation Destabilise is an NCA-led international Anti-Money Laundering effort. Source: NCA
Since TGR bought a controlling stake in Keremet Bank last year, it has facilitated “cross-border payments on behalf of Promsvyazbank, a Russian state-owned bank, which supported companies involved in the Russian military industrial base.”
Essentially, the NCA said it has exposed a profitable conduit used by Russia to avoid sanctions and illegally fund its war in Ukraine. To date, more than 25 million pounds ($33 million) has been seized in cash and cryptocurrency, the agency said, and 128 arrests have been made internationally.
BlackRock’s head of digital assets, Robbie Mitchnick, said that most of the world’s largest asset managers’ clients aren’t considering Bitcoin’s use for daily payments when deciding whether to invest in the asset.
“I think for us, and most of our clients today, they’re not really underwriting to that global payment network case,” Mitchnick said during a podcast interview published to YouTube on Friday.
“That’s sort of maybe out-of-the-money-option-value upside,” Mitchnick said.
He said this doesn’t mean Bitcoin (BTC) won’t eventually achieve widespread use in payments, but he called that scenario “a little bit more speculative,” stressing that investors are far more focused on the “digital gold” or store-of-value thesis.
“A lot needs to happen” for that to change, says Mitchnick
“There’s a lot that needs to happen in terms of Bitcoin scaling, Lightning, and otherwise to make that possible,” he said. In August 2024, Galaxy Research suggested that most Bitcoin layer-2 scaling networks, particularly “rollups” may not be sustainable in the long term despite their popularity as a promising method to keep Bitcoin payments cheap, fast and decentralized.
Meanwhile, Mitchnick said that stablecoins have been “hugely successful” in the payments sector. “They do have massive product market fit as a payment instrument as a way of moving value around efficiently,” he said.
Robbie Mitchnick spoke to Natalie Brunell on the Coin Stories podcast. Source: Natalie Brunell
“Stablecoins have the potential to greatly expand where they are used today, going beyond just the sort of crypto trading ecosystem and DeFi to actually doing retail remittance payments, corporate, multinational, cross-border transactions, and capital market settlement activity,” he said.
He said Bitcoin has a better chance of competing in retail remittance payments than in other areas, but isn’t ruling anything out. “At some point it is possible, but it’s a more speculative thing to underwrite at this point,” he said.
Stablecoins are ‘scaling faster’ than expected
ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood recently stated that stablecoins “scaling faster” than expected is the reason for her recent lowering her 2030 Bitcoin price prediction.
“Stablecoins are usurping part of the role that we thought that Bitcoin would play,” she said.
Wood explained that she previously projected Bitcoin could reach $1.5 million by 2030, but with stablecoins now serving many of the use cases she thought Bitcoin would dominate, she said it may make sense to trim that forecast by about $300,000.
“I think emerging markets are huge in this regard and we’re starting to see institutions in the United States focused on new payment rails,” she said.
Tether co-founder Reeve Collins told Cointelegraph in September that he expects “all currency” to become stablecoins by 2030 as part of a broader shift that will see all forms of finance go onchain.
The transfer of Bitcoin (BTC) from long-term holders, also known as “OGs,” to “weak” hands will cause future drawdowns to be more severe, according to gold investor and economist Peter Schiff.
Bitcoin is “finally having its IPO moment,” Schiff said on Saturday, adding that there is now enough liquidity in the Bitcoin market for long-term holders to cash out.
“This much Bitcoin moving from strong to weak hands not only increases the float, but also means future selloffs will be bigger,” Schiff added.
The ongoing crypto downturn has left analysts and investors divided about the direction of the market and whether the bull trend will resume once liquidity conditions improve or if we are facing the next crypto bear market.
The Bitcoin exchange inflow, which tracks the number of BTC sent to exchanges for selling, remains elevated. Source: CryptoQuant
High-profile, long-term holders cash out, but can retail and institutions absorb the selling pressure?
Owen Gunden, one of the earliest long-term Bitcoin holders, cashed out, selling his entire stash of 11,000 BTC, valued at about $1.3 billion, in October and November.
Robert Kiyosaki, the author of “Rich Dad, Poor Dad” and an investor, announced on Friday that he sold all of his BTC, valued at about $2.25 million.
Kiyosaki said that he purchased BTC when it was about $6,000 per coin and sold it at the $90,000 level. He added that he will funnel the profits into income-producing businesses.
“I am still very bullish and optimistic on Bitcoin and will begin acquiring more with my positive cash flow,” Kiyosaki said.
The strong selling pressure from long-term holders cashing out and leveraged liquidations in crypto derivatives markets are the main factors driving the short-term drawdown, analysts at crypto exchange Bitfinex said.
Bitcoin’s fundamentals remain strong and attractive to institutional investors, who will continue to adopt BTC and drive demand, according to the Bitfinex analysts.
However, retail investors will likely sell their BTC at the first sign of trouble, Vineet Budki, CEO of venture firm Sigma Capital, told Cointelegraph, adding that this lack of conviction among retail investors will drive a 70% price drawdown in the next bear market.
