A Madras High Court judge barred WazirX from reallocating a customer’s XRP holdings and declared cryptocurrency qualifies as property under Indian law, setting a precedent that may reshape how exchanges handle user assets during insolvency proceedings across multiple jurisdictions.
As The Times of India reported on Oct. 25, Justice N Anand Venkatesh ruled that the entity operating WazirX cannot redistribute, apportion, or reallocate 3,532.30 XRP coins belonging to Rhutikumari, who purchased the assets by transferring funds from her Chennai bank account.
The court granted an interim injunction after finding jurisdiction, despite WazirX’s argument that a Singapore High Court-supervised restructuring scheme controlled the matter.
Justice Venkatesh stated:
“Cryptocurrency is treated as a virtual digital asset, and it is not treated as a speculative transaction.”
The ruling cited Section 2(47A) of the Income Tax Act, which governs virtual digital assets, and found that cryptocurrency “is capable of being enjoyed and possessed (in a beneficial form) and is capable of being held in trust.”
WazirX contended that the platform does not own crypto wallets and that all users would receive pro rata compensation through a three-step process supervised by Singapore’s high court following a hack that halted withdrawals.
The exchange argued that the Madras High Court lacked jurisdiction because the arbitration was seated in Singapore.
The court rejected that position. Justice Venkatesh noted that Rhutikumari transferred funds from India, accessed the platform from within the country, and therefore established that part of the cause of action arose within the Madras High Court’s territorial jurisdiction.
The decision treats crypto holdings as distinct property rights rather than unsecured claims in a bankruptcy pool.
XRP property status shapes remedies in other venues
Courts in the US routinely treat crypto as property for remedial purposes, though regulatory classifications vary by agency.
The New York state court issued a temporary restraining order over stolen USDC in the LCX case and authorized service by NFT. Federal courts freeze wallets and seize crypto under Rule 65 and civil forfeiture statutes.
Relief against exchanges depends on the contractual structure: customers holding assets in omnibus or “Earn” programs that transfer title recover less than those with proper custody arrangements, where platforms act as bailees, as seen in the Celsius Earn ruling.
English courts recognize crypto as property and grant proprietary injunctions, freezing orders, and Bankers Trust disclosure against exchanges, including those overseas.
AA v Persons Unknown established the framework in a Bitfinex ransomware case, while Fetch.ai v Persons Unknown applied it to a Binance case.
LMN v Bitflyer confirmed disclosure orders can reach foreign exchanges. Parliament moved to codify digital-asset property concepts following the Law Commission’s 2023 report, solidifying the legal foundation for such orders.
Issue
India
United States
United Kingdom
Singapore
Is crypto “property”?
Yes; expressly stated and “capable of being held in trust.”
Yes for many purposes (tax/property; courts issue TROs, seizures).
Yes; courts treat crypto as property supporting proprietary relief; government moving to codify.
Yes; recognised across tokens and NFTs; can be held on trust.
Can courts stop an exchange from touching user coins?
Yes; interim injunction barred WazirX from reallocating customer XRP.
Yes, via TRO/prelim injunction and constructive-trust theories, but platform ToS can be outcome-determinative (Celsius Earn).
If ToS transfers title (yield/earn), users may be unsecured creditors in insolvency.
Some injunctions against exchanges have been discharged on the facts; relief is case-specific.
Strong on property/trust, but final outcomes still hinge on facts and contractual terms.
Singapore’s High Court has granted proprietary and worldwide freezing injunctions over stolen crypto in CLM v CLN, recognized NFTs and tokens as property, and, in Bybit v Ho Kai Xin, confirmed that crypto can be held on trust. This doctrine is relevant when users claim an exchange or insider holds assets on their behalf.
Quoine v B2C2 was the first to flag trust issues in exchange settings. Subsequent cases refined the property analysis to support stronger customer protections.
The Madras ruling aligns India with jurisdictions that prioritize property rights over pooling schemes in cases where exchanges face insolvency or restructuring.
By establishing that crypto purchases create enforceable property interests rather than mere contractual claims, the decision may limit how platforms redistribute user holdings during financial distress and clarify that local courts retain jurisdiction over assets accessed and funded domestically, regardless of where corporate restructuring proceedings occur.
Recently, XRP dropped 15% as Bitcoin slipped just 1%, showing amplified volatility.
XRP ETF delays and $8.13M in liquidations deepened XRP’s monthly decline.
Analysts see XRP rebounding toward $5–$12 if ETF-driven supply shock hits.
XRP price has become the focal point of heated debate after the token slid roughly 15% over the past month while the Bitcoin price barely moved.
Market commentators and analysts are asking why XRP would suffer such a steep pullback when the broader market appeared comparatively steady.
The answer, they say, lies in correlation dynamics, liquidations, regulatory lag and nascent institutional activity.
The sharp divergence with Bitcoin
In October, both Bitcoin and XRP rallied, with Bitcoin staying above the six-figure levels and XRP flirting with the $3 mark.
Profit-taking followed quickly, and altcoins absorbed most of the pain.
Traders who had piled into XRP were hit especially hard; one stretch of trading erased about $8.13 million of leveraged positions within four hours.
That sequence amplified losses and sent XRP below the $2.50 support level it had failed to hold after the upswing.
Charles Gasparino, a senior correspondent known for market coverage, spotlighted the paradox: Bitcoin fell only about 1% over the month, yet XRP plunged around 15%.
Why is BTC down 1 percent over the past month but XRP is down 15 percent?
The contrast underscores a structural reality where XRP has historically tracked Bitcoin’s moves but with greater intensity.
When BTC stumbles or consolidates, that sensitivity can turn into outsized downside for XRP.
XRP price and the ETF supply shock
Beyond short-term mechanics, a longer-term narrative is reshaping investor expectations.
Analyst Zach Rector has argued that the launch of multiple spot XRP exchange-traded funds and similar institutional vehicles could effectively remove a substantial portion of circulating supply from the market.
According to Rector, that “supply shock,” Rector says, would create the conditions for a dramatic price re-rating, with conservative models pointing to targets ranging from $5 up to double-digit territory — even as high as $12 by December 2025.
🧵Final 2025 XRP Timeline 🧵 XRP November Pump Coming ✅ $5-$12 XRP by first part of December 🚨
The regulatory backdrop also matters. Bitcoin and Ethereum have benefited from cleared paths to ETF adoption that flooded both markets with fresh capital.
XRP, by contrast, still faces an unresolved approval picture for spot ETFs in many jurisdictions.
That delay has likely depressed demand from risk-averse institutional buyers and made the token more sensitive to retail flows and sentiment shifts.
At the same time, data points show growing institutional interest via derivatives: CME-listed XRP and Micro XRP futures have recorded substantial contract volumes over recent months, a sign that professional desks are increasingly engaging the token.
XRP price analysis
From a technical analysis standpoint, the $2.30 area acted as a concrete support during mid-month liquidations, and the bounce to around $2.50 suggests buyers remain interested at those prices.
A sustained break above $3.40 would, in many analysts’ views, open a path toward $5.5, and if ETF-driven supply lockups occur, upside to substantially higher levels becomes plausible.
On-chain signals constructively complicate the picture.
The XRP Ledger is approaching a major transaction milestone, nearing 100 million recorded transfers.
That activity signals ongoing utility and adoption within payments and DeFi niches where XRP has carved a role.
Such resilience in on-chain throughput can buttress confidence even when price action looks shaky.
Assessing the path forward means weighing an array of forces: correlation-driven volatility, liquidation dynamics, regulatory clarity, and institutional adoption through derivatives and potential ETFs.
Short-term traders must manage the heightened risk that comes with XRP’s amplified moves.
Long-term investors, on the other hand, should watch ETF developments and on-chain adoption as the main levers that could catalyse the next leg of momentum.
Yesterday, Oct. 28, Metaplanet authorized a share buyback program disclosing a Bitcoin (BTC)-secured credit facility of up to $500 million. This capital allocation tool works best when the stock trades below its market-to-net-asset-value ratio, amplifying gains in Bitcoin rallies and magnifying losses in drawdowns.
The Tokyo Stock Exchange filings set a buyback cap of ¥75 billion, or 150 million shares, over the next year, and approved a credit facility “secured by BTC” held with a custodian.
For reference, Metaplanet holds 30,823 BTC and states buybacks become “most effective” when the stock trades below 1x mNAV, which is market capitalization divided by net asset value.
Bitcoin treasury companies function as levered, flow-driven vehicles rather than simple proxies for spot Bitcoin. So, does recent outperformance reflect sustainable a business model or a momentum cycle that will fade when Bitcoin stalls or mNAV premium compresses?
Leverage and buybacks drive equity convexity
A Bitcoin-collateralized credit line used to repurchase shares increases per-share Bitcoin exposure and typically pushes the equity’s mNAV back toward or above 1x during rallies.
The exact structure increases downside convexity if Bitcoin falls or the mNAV premium compresses, because debt remains fixed. At the same time, the collateral asset fluctuates, and share-count reductions magnify per-share volatility.
Strategy has deployed convertible debt and at-the-market equity programs across multiple cycles, delivering equity outperformance during Bitcoin rallies and sharp underperformance during drawdowns.
Semler Scientific funded treasury growth through ATM issuance and later transactions, exhibiting a flow-driven behavior in which equity returns diverge from spot Bitcoin returns during premium cycles and capital-structure moves.
Recent performance illustrates that dispersion. Over the past 30 days, Strategy’s stock declined roughly 13%, Metaplanet’s US over-the-counter listing fell approximately 10%, and Semler Scientific gained about 7.5% following deal announcements.
Those moves were driven as much by mNAV swings and equity flows as by Bitcoin’s relatively flat price action.
The pattern fits a momentum model in which equity performance depends on premium expansion or contraction, issuance or buyback timing, and market appetite for levered Bitcoin exposure, rather than Bitcoin price alone.
Institutional lenders typically require low starting loan-to-value ratios and maintenance triggers for Bitcoin-collateralized credit.
Strategy’s 2022 Silvergate loan involved roughly $820 million in Bitcoin collateral for a $205 million draw, representing approximately 25% LTV and illustrating the over-collateralization standard that forces rapid deleveraging during sharp Bitcoin declines.
Metaplanet’s filings do not disclose specific LTV terms or collateral triggers, leaving open the question of how much cushion the company maintains and whether drawdowns could trigger margin calls or forced asset sales.
Mechanics that amplify cycles
The math behind treasury-stock convexity combines four multipliers: Bitcoin’s price move, Bitcoin’s share of net asset value, changes in the mNAV multiple, and the inverse change in share count.
When a company borrows against Bitcoin to buy back shares, net asset value becomes more sensitive to Bitcoin moves because debt is fixed while the collateral fluctuates.
Simultaneously, share count falls and per-share Bitcoin exposure rises, often leading to mNAV re-rating, but that re-rating reverses violently during Bitcoin drawdowns when markets discount leverage risk and potential margin calls.
Metaplanet’s filings explicitly acknowledge this dynamic by targeting buybacks when the stock trades below 1x mNAV.
If Bitcoin remains flat and the stock trades at 0.95 to 1.00x mNAV, buybacks can close the discount and lift equity returns even if spot Bitcoin remains flat.
If Bitcoin rallies 20% and mNAV expands to 1.1 or 1.2x, leverage combined with reduced share count typically delivers equity outperformance.
If Bitcoin drops 20% and lenders demand collateral top-ups, the equity can underperform Bitcoin as mNAV sags and markets price in deleveraging risk.
That pattern defines momentum amplification rather than a stable, Bitcoin-correlated investment.
The use of proceeds, such as Bitcoin purchases, buybacks, or funding the company’s Bitcoin income business, adds another layer of discretion.
Issuing equity during strength to buy Bitcoin and repurchasing shares during weakness creates per-share Bitcoin growth over time, but leaves the company exposed to cycle risk when premium and discount regimes flip.
Treasury companies that execute this playbook effectively can compound per-share Bitcoin exposure. Those that mistime issuance or face forced deleveraging during drawdowns destroy value relative to holding Bitcoin directly.
Metaplanet’s mNAV proxy fell to 0.87× while bitcoin rose 5% over 30 days, prompting the Oct. 28 buyback authorization targeting sub-1× valuations.
Regulatory and governance context
Japanese corporate law allows boards to authorize buybacks if the company’s articles so provide, under Companies Act Article 165, the authority Metaplanet cites in its disclosure.
No shareholder vote was required for the buyback program itself, though significant capital-structure changes, including charter amendments and major equity offerings, went to shareholders during 2025.
Coverage of Metaplanet’s recent shareholder meetings indicates that investors approved substantial capital raises earlier this year to fund the Bitcoin strategy.
Listing-rule frameworks differ across markets. The UK Financial Conduct Authority’s July 2024 overhaul removed most shareholder-vote requirements for significant transactions, shifting to a disclosure model and reducing friction for significant capital moves.
Hong Kong still requires shareholder approval and a circular for Very Substantial Acquisitions under Chapter 14 of the listing rules, maintaining process-heavy governance for companies pivoting to treasury strategies.
There is no new, universal regulation forcing votes on Bitcoin treasury shifts. Instead, normal listing and corporate rules apply with varying levels of shareholder gating depending on jurisdiction.
Testing the momentum hypothesis
Treasury stocks function as momentum amplifiers when their returns depend more on mNAV premium cycles and capital flows than on Bitcoin’s spot price.
Evidence supporting that characterization includes the performance dispersion across Strategy, Metaplanet, and Semler Scientific despite similar Bitcoin exposure. The companies’ explicit strategies of issuing into strength and buying back into weakness, and the structural leverage that magnifies both upside and downside relative to Bitcoin.
The alternative view, that treasury stocks represent durable business models with sustainable outperformance, requires demonstrating that per-share Bitcoin growth and operational cash flows justify persistent mNAV premia above 1x.
To date, most treasury companies trade at varying premia or discounts based on market sentiment, Bitcoin momentum, and capital-structure announcements rather than on fundamental cash flow generation.
Strategy’s software business contributes modest revenue relative to its Bitcoin holdings. Metaplanet’s operational businesses remain minor relative to its treasury. Semler Scientific generates medical device revenue but frames its equity story around Bitcoin exposure.
Ticker
30D return
Note (mNAV context)
IBIT (BTC proxy)
+5.27%
Baseline for NAV; use as BTC reference.
MSTR
−8.6% to −7.3%*
Equity premia/issuance flows swing mNAV vs. BTC.
SMLR
−27.4% to −24.2%*
Treasury/deal headlines moved premiums sharply.
Metaplanet (OTC: MTPLF)
−9.77%
Under BTC → implied mNAV compression this month.
The key variables to track include facility drawdowns and their timing, disclosed collateral terms and LTV triggers, and the company’s mNAV relative to 1x over time.
Suppose Metaplanet draws the full $500 million to repurchase shares during periods when the stock trades below 1x mNAV and Bitcoin remains flat or rising.
In that case, the strategy can deliver equity outperformance by closing the discount and increasing per-share Bitcoin. If the company draws during a Bitcoin rally when mNAV already exceeds 1×, it amplifies upside exposure but also magnifies downside risk if Bitcoin subsequently corrects and lenders tighten collateral requirements.
Historical precedent suggests that Bitcoin-collateralized credit introduces margin-call risk during fast drawdowns.
Lenders commonly require conservative LTVs and over-collateralization, meaning companies must maintain excess collateral or face forced deleveraging, the signature characteristic of a momentum amplifier rather than a defensive treasury.
Metaplanet’s filings state that proceeds may fund buybacks, additional Bitcoin purchases, or the company’s Bitcoin income business, but do not specify collateral management protocols or LTV maintenance covenants.
What defines durable versus cyclical models
A treasury stock stops functioning as a momentum vehicle when Bitcoin declines, the mNAV premium compresses, and debt LTV constraints tighten simultaneously, forcing equity to underperform spot Bitcoin.
The same stock can generate positive returns even when Bitcoin is flat if buybacks close an mNAV discount to 1x.
During Bitcoin rallies with expanding premia, the equity typically outperforms through leverage, reduced share count, and multiple expansion. The momentum flywheel turns at full speed.
Corporate Bitcoin finance now includes convertible debt, Bitcoin-secured credit, ATM equity programs, preferred shares, and warrants.
The differentiator over time is the cost of capital and collateral terms rather than headline Bitcoin exposure.
Companies that access low-cost financing and maintain conservative LTVs can weather drawdowns without forced selling. Those operating at tight LTV margins or high borrowing costs face greater cycle risk.
Listing-rule evolution also matters. The UK’s reform reduces vote friction for large transactions, potentially enabling more aggressive capital cycling.
Hong Kong’s continued requirement for shareholder approval on big moves provides a gating mechanism that could dampen momentum cycles.
If additional treasury companies list or relist in jurisdictions with lighter governance requirements, flow-driven strategies could become more pronounced with fewer structural checks.
Metaplanet’s Oct. 28 disclosure positions the company as executing a mature treasury playbook, using Bitcoin as collateral to manage equity valuation through buybacks while maintaining flexibility to deploy capital across purchases, repurchases, or operations.
The effectiveness of that strategy depends on execution timing, collateral management, and whether the mNAV premium persists or compresses.
The one-year authorization window through Oct. 28, 2026, will test whether Bitcoin treasury stocks represent a new asset class with durable premia or momentum trades that fade when underlying cycles turn.
Four altcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) begin trading on Oct. 28, marking the first wave of non-Bitcoin, non-Ethereum spot crypto ETFs in the US and potentially catalyzing rotation into altcoin after months of consolidation.
Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas confirmed that NYSE and Nasdaq posted listing notices for the Bitwise Solana Staking ETF. A few hours later, Bitwise confirmed that BSOL trading starts on Oct. 28.
Additionally, Grayscale’s Solana ETF will convert the following day. Balchunas stated:
“Assuming there’s not some last-minute SEC intervention, looks like this is happening.”
“Litecoin and Hedera are the next two token ETFs to go effective after Ethereum. We look forward to launching tomorrow.”
Multicoin Capital partner Kyle Samani first disclosed the launch date of the Bitwise SOL staking ETF in a now-deleted Oct. 27 post.
Reports following Samani’s publication stated that the NYSE had confirmed the Bitwise Solana Staking ETF had received trading clearance.
Infrastructure built for institutional moment
Thomas Uhm, chief commercial officer at Jito, said the approvals validate months of operational groundwork.
In a note, he stated:
“We’ve been sitting on the precipice of this moment, and I’m immensely proud we’re finally here. The approval of staked Solana ETFs is a significant step for institutional access to crypto.”
He added that this validates the infrastructure work Jito has been doing to integrate with qualified custodians, build liquidity across exchanges and OTC markets, and address regulatory, tax, and accounting issues institutions face.
Jito’s JitoSOL liquid staking token (LST) operates inside REX’s SSK product and is the only Solana LST with a full LST ETF application from VanEck.
Uhm emphasized relationship-building with authorized participants and market makers:
“We’ve built relationships with the largest authorized participants, liquidity providers, and market makers in the world. Business is about relationships, and we’ve been in the rooms that matter for ETF issuers and users to help them understand what liquid staking can do within these structures.”
The staking component differentiates Solana products from Ethereum spot ETFs, which launched in July 2024 without staking features due to regulatory concerns.
Uhm positioned the approval as a starting point rather than a conclusion, mentioning works with “tier 1” investment banks on products related to these ETFs and relationships with major hedge funds.
The Oct. 28 launches follow months of issuer applications and SEC review.
The expansion from Ethereum into other altcoins tests whether institutional demand extends beyond the two largest cryptocurrencies and whether regulated products can absorb supply without triggering the volatility that characterized previous altcoin rallies.
Bitcoin (BTC) briefly breached $116,000 for the first time in two weeks as traders positioned for a dovish Federal Reserve decision and fresh capital flowed back into digital asset products following October’s risk-off stretch.
As of press time, Bitcoin traded at $114,683.03, up 0.15% over 24 hours. The move reflects a convergence of macro tailwinds and technical dynamics that turned sentiment after mid-October weakness left the market vulnerable to short squeezes and renewed institutional demand.
Markets are pricing the Oct. 29 Fed meeting as the catalyst. Traders are betting that easier financial conditions will support risk assets.
Additionally, a softer dollar index (DXY) hovers in the high-98s, and subdued long yields near 4% on the US 10-year Treasury create the macro backdrop crypto typically needs to rally.
Lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets and ease financial conditions broadly.
Major altcoins showed mixed performance. Ethereum traded at $4,148.13, down 0.2% over 24 hours, while Solana fell 0.1% to $199.82. XRP gained 0.1% to $2.64, and BNB rose 0.5% to $1,143.17.
Cardano dropped 1.3% to $0.6725, and Dogecoin declined 1.5% to $0.2026. The divergence suggests capital concentrated in Bitcoin rather than rotating broadly across crypto markets.
The reversal follows cooler CPI data that revived institutional appetite after October saw sustained outflows. The shift explains why dip-buyers showed conviction this week, treating sub-$115,000 levels as entry points rather than resistance.
Derivatives markets amplified the move. Hundreds of millions in short liquidations hit over the weekend and early Oct. 27, per CoinGlass estimates, as bears were forced to exit positions when Bitcoin cleared key technical levels.
That squeeze dynamic magnifies spot demand and accelerates rallies once resistance breaks, creating the momentum that carried BTC toward $116,000.
Supply-side pressure eased at the margin. Mt. Gox’s trustee extended the creditor repayment deadline by one year to Oct. 31, 2026, removing near-term forced selling risk from an overhang that has weighed on sentiment for months.
The formal extension appeared in the trustee’s notice and reduces one variable that traders cited as a headwind.
Despite the recent tailwinds, two risks remain. The same ETF and fund cohort that bought this week were net sellers in mid-October, and Fed messaging can reverse risk sentiment quickly.
If rate-cut odds fade or the dollar rallies sharply, the macro tailwinds supporting Bitcoin can turn into headwinds just as quickly. This week’s Fed decision will test whether today’s positioning holds or unwinds.
Bitplanet bought 93 BTC in Korea’s first regulated corporate purchase.
The firm plans daily Bitcoin buys to reach a 10,000 BTC treasury.
Backed by major investors, Bitplanet leads Korea’s Bitcoin adoption.
Bitplanet has made history in South Korea’s financial landscape by becoming the nation’s first publicly traded company to purchase Bitcoin (BTC) through a regulated domestic exchange.
The KOSDAQ-listed technology firm recently acquired 92.67 BTC — worth approximately $10.9 million — marking a new chapter in the country’s corporate embrace of digital assets.
Korea’s first regulated corporate Bitcoin buy
The BTC acquisition positions Bitplanet as a pioneer in compliant Bitcoin adoption within Asia’s evolving financial ecosystem.
For the past month, @Bitplanet_KR has been quietly building the most reliable and compliant Bitcoin treasury infrastructure in Korea — culminating in becoming the first public company to purchase Bitcoin directly through a licensed domestic crypto exchange. As of October 26,… pic.twitter.com/hEmpvh9fUL
It is the first time a listed company has acquired Bitcoin through a licensed exchange within the country’s regulated financial infrastructure.
Executed entirely under the supervision of South Korea’s Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU), the transaction signals growing confidence among institutional investors that Bitcoin can serve as a legitimate, strategic treasury asset.
The Seoul-based company described the move as a deliberate, rules-based initiative rather than a speculative trade.
Co-CEO Paul Lee explained that the purchase marks the start of a disciplined, long-term accumulation plan designed to reduce timing risks while positioning Bitcoin as a strategic treasury reserve.
The transaction was executed fully in compliance with domestic financial laws, a milestone that could encourage other listed companies to follow suit.
Notably, the timing of Bitplanet’s move coincided with a strong rally in Bitcoin prices, which recently climbed above $115,000 amid optimism about US Federal Reserve rate cuts and increasing exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows.
By choosing this moment to make its first acquisition, Bitplanet demonstrated not only market awareness but also confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term role as a corporate asset.
From its IT roots to a Bitcoin treasury company
Founded in 1997 as SGA Co., Ltd., Bitplanet has deep roots in IT, cybersecurity, and education technology services.
The company rebranded in September 2025 to reflect a broader shift toward blockchain and Bitcoin-focused ventures.
Its pivot follows the full $50 million acquisition of SGA earlier in the year and the completion of a $40 million fundraising round to support its new treasury strategy.
This strategic transformation underscores Bitplanet’s vision of becoming South Korea’s first institutional-grade Bitcoin treasury company.
The firm has developed a comprehensive infrastructure for compliant digital asset management, including regulated custody solutions, secure storage, and real-time audit systems that meet government and financial oversight standards.
Bitplanet’s management says it intends to accumulate Bitcoin daily through licensed domestic exchanges, aiming to build a reserve of up to 10,000 BTC over time.
This steady, methodical approach minimises exposure to market volatility and mirrors similar strategies employed by firms such as Japan’s Metaplanet, one of Bitplanet’s key backers.
Backed by global Bitcoin advocates
Bitplanet’s Bitcoin strategy is supported by a global network of digital asset investors.
The firm’s backers include Simon Gerovich of Metaplanet, AsiaStrategy, Sora Ventures, UTXO Management, KCGI, Kingsway Capital, and ParaFi Capital — groups known for advancing institutional Bitcoin adoption worldwide.
Their involvement signals strong confidence in Bitplanet’s compliance-focused model and its potential to establish a new standard for Bitcoin treasury management in Asia.
Industry observers believe the company’s regulated approach could pave the way for broader corporate participation in South Korea’s growing digital asset market.
The BTC purchase also aligns with the country’s forthcoming Digital Asset Basic Act, scheduled to take effect by 2027, which will formalise the rules for cryptocurrency custody and corporate holdings.
By moving early, Bitplanet positions itself to benefit from the regulatory clarity that this law is expected to bring.
Bitcoin breached $116,000 for the first time in two weeks, and the usual narrative surfaced: inflation hedge.
But the data tells a different story. This cycle, Bitcoin trades less like a consumer-price shield and more like a real-time barometer of dollar liquidity and discount rates.
The question isn’t whether Bitcoin hedges inflation, but whether a weaker dollar and falling real yields drive it now.
BTC ≠ CPI hedge anymore?
The inflation-hedge thesis isn’t wrong, just mistimed. Data suggests that Bitcoin rallied amid liquidity shifts and monetary pivots, not because the Bureau of Labor Statistics printed 3.1% instead of 3%.
CPI measures price levels with a lag. Bitcoin trades forward-looking liquidity and discount rates in real time.
Across this cycle, the relationship between Bitcoin and headline inflation weakened while correlations with the dollar index and real yields tightened.
A snapshot of directional relationships reveals the shift:
Pair
Typical Sign
Stability
What It Reflects
BTC × CPI (m/m or y/y)
Near zero, unstable
Weak, flips frequently
Prints are lagged; policy reaction moves BTC, not the CPI print itself
BTC × DXY (log returns)
Inverse
Strengthens in dollar downtrends
Global dollar liquidity channel and cross-border risk appetite
BTC × 10y real yield (DFII10, Δ)
Inverse
Time-varying by regime
Higher real rates tighten conditions; lower real rates ease financial plumbing
Current 30-day Pearson correlations show Bitcoin/DXY at approximately -0.45 and Bitcoin/DFII10 near -0.38, while Bitcoin/CPI hovers around zero with frequent sign changes.
The 90-day window smooths noise but confirms the pattern: Bitcoin responds to the Fed’s reaction function and dollar liquidity conditions, not the inflation print itself.
Why USD strength and real yields transmit into BTC
Real yields represent the market’s price of money after inflation. When the 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities yield rises, the dollar typically firms, global financial conditions tighten, and long-duration risk assets de-rate.
Bitcoin’s funding costs compress, basis trades narrow, and marginal buyers retreat. Conversely, when real yields roll over, the dollar softens, cross-border US dollar scarcity eases, and crypto risk premia shrink.
The same plumbing shows up in stablecoin funding rates, market-maker inventories, and the basis between spot, futures, and perpetual swaps.
The transmission runs through portfolio allocation decisions at scale. Institutional desks adjust risk exposure based on the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.
When real yields climb, cash and short-term Treasuries compete directly with Bitcoin. When real yields decline, competition weakens, and capital rotates into growth and speculative allocations.
Real-yield change (bps)
Exp. BTC return (%)
Indicative BTC (mid)
Lower band (±1σ)
Upper band (±1σ)
−25
1.42
$231,263
$217,731
$244,795
−50
1.35
$231,096
$217,564
$244,628
−75
1.28
$230,928
$217,396
$244,460
Additionally, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) flows act as an amplifier.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs turned macro signals into immediate on-chain demand. Creations pull authorized participants to source coins in size through institutional desks and OTC brokers, while redemptions push inventory back into the market.
That flow is contemporaneous with macro impulses: a softer dollar and lower real yields usually coincide with easier risk conditions, making creations more likely and redemptions rarer.
Flows don’t cause the macro backdrop, they magnify it. A 25-basis-point drop in DFII10, paired with a 2% decline in DXY, can trigger the creation of baskets worth hundreds of millions as portfolio managers rebalance.
The opposite dynamic, consisting of rising reals and a firming dollar, drains liquidity through redemptions and forces spot selling.
ETFs converted what used to be a slow, over-the-counter process into a same-day feedback loop between traditional finance investors positioning and crypto spot markets.
Bitcoin price and spot ETF net flows showed strong correlation through 2024-2025, with major inflows coinciding with price rallies above $200,000 in early and late 2025.
What flipped when
Three standard flip zones define regime changes. First, risk-off dollar surges when everything sells together. Bitcoin’s inverse relationship with DXY weakens toward zero as correlations collapse into a flight-to-safety bid for the US dollar.
Second, early easing phases as markets price lower real rates and Fed cuts, and the inverse relationship strengthens, raising Bitcoin’s macro beta role.
Third, policy-messaging whipsaws. Around FOMC meetings or CPI beats that shift rate-cut odds, rolling correlations can lurch for weeks before settling into a new regime.
The most recent inflection occurred in mid-October, when real yields spiked amid stubborn core inflation data and the DXY rallied through key resistance.
Bitcoin’s 30-day correlation with DXY flipped from -0.50 to near zero as both sold off together. By late October, softer payrolls and renewed dovish Fed messaging reversed the move, real yields declined 15 basis points, DXY retreated, and the inverse correlation re-established at -0.45.
That two-week window shows causality running through policy expectations, not inflation prints.
Relating ETFs to USD and real yields
Weekly spot ETF net flows track dollar and real-yield movements with minimal lag. Weeks with extreme creations of over $500 million typically coincide with DXY falling and DFII10 easing.
A simple contemporaneous regression confirms the relationship. Bitcoin weekly returns regress positively on ETF net flows and negatively on changes in DXY and DFII10.
The adjusted R² hovers near 0.35, indicating that roughly one-third of Bitcoin’s weekly variance is directly tied to those three variables.
Coefficients drift by regime. During Fed easing cycles, the DXY beta strengthens as dollar weakness signals easier global liquidity.
During tightening phases, the real-yield beta dominates as the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin rises. Re-estimating the regression each quarter captures those shifts and keeps the model aligned with current macro conditions.
CoinShares reported $921 million of net inflows into digital asset products for the latest week, led by US vehicles, following cooler CPI data.
That reversed mid-October’s risk-off stretch when redemptions hit $400 million as DXY rallied and real yields climbed.
The swing illustrates how quickly flows respond to macro pivots and why watching the dollar and real yields provides earlier signals than waiting for fund-flow announcements.
Scenarios into 2026 and what to expect
The base case is that real yields slip by 25 to 50 basis points on softening growth and steady inflation, while the DXY drifts lower.
That translates into modestly positive Bitcoin carry, with wider-than-usual confidence bands due to elevated volatility around year-end tax considerations and ETF rebalancing.
Path dependence on weekly flows matters, as sustained creations push the range higher, while stalled flows keep Bitcoin rangebound.
The upside scenario is a faster policy pivot or growth scare drives real yields down more quickly, DXY breaks trend support, and ETF creations re-accelerate past $1 billion weekly.
Bitcoin’s beta to macro rises, spot momentum extends, and the market reprices higher targets as financial conditions ease aggressively.
Conversely, a downside scenario: real yields stay sticky or rise on stubborn core inflation, the dollar catches a safe-haven bid, and ETF flows stall or flip negative. Range support breaks lower, volatility picks up, and Bitcoin’s correlation structure collapses as risk-off dominates.
A signal to watch out for is real yields holding above 2% and DXY reclaiming its 200-day moving average as warning signs.
Additionally, three dials are worth tracking. First, the DXY trend: monitoring the 20-day and 50-day moving averages and the distance to the 200-day moving average. A breakdown below 98 with momentum confirms the dollar-weakness trade remains intact.
Second, DFII10 level and 30-day change: a decline below 1.8% signals easing conditions; a spike above 2.2% tightens the screws.
Third, daily or weekly spot-ETF net flows: sustained creations above $300 million daily suggest institutional conviction; redemptions signal macro headwinds.
These dials work with a dated event calendar. The next FOMC decision on Dec. 18, CPI print on Dec. 11, payrolls on Dec. 6, and any large Treasury refunding or auction clusters that can move real yields intraday.
Does a weaker dollar drive Bitcoin now? This cycle, yes. But through the real-yield channel and amplified by ETF flows, not through the inflation-hedge narrative.
Bitcoin trades more like a dollar and real-yield beta than a CPI hedge. Data suggests that it is wise to keep focus on those three dials and treat correlation as a regime-switcher, not a constant.
When the dollar softens and real yields decline, Bitcoin typically rallies. When the opposite occurs, risk compresses and spot demand evaporates.
That’s a potential playbook for positioning into next year’s first quarter.
A quiet but historic moment has unfolded, which may reshape how traditional markets value digital assets like Bitcoin.
For the first time, a major global rating agency has evaluated a company whose borrowing model is directly tied to BTC.
On Oct. 27, S&P Global Ratings assigned Strategy Inc. (MSTR) a “B-” rating with a Stable outlook.
Speaking on this, Mathew Sigel, the head of digital asset research at VanEck, said:
“That’s high-yield territory. Able to service debt for now, but vulnerable to shocks. “
Nonetheless, the rating marks a recognition of the firm’s debt structure and the role of Bitcoin as legitimate collateral within the global credit system.
In doing so, S&P placed Bitcoin on the same analytical map as corporate debt, sovereign bonds, and commodities-backed loans. This transforms what was once a theoretical concept into a rated financial reality.
Risk or Opportunity?
Meanwhile, S&P’s methodology views Bitcoin primarily as a source of volatility rather than capital.
The firm cited Strategy’s “heavy reliance on Bitcoin”, “thin capitalization,” and “fragile dollar liquidity” as reasons for the speculative-grade classification.
However, crypto analysts disagree with that interpretation, arguing that the model misjudges Bitcoin’s liquidity and structural resilience.
Unlike traditional corporate reserves, BTC can be converted instantly, across jurisdictions, and without banking intermediaries.
Jeff Park, chief investment officer at ProCap BTC, argued that S&P’s model undervalues Bitcoin’s liquidity and independence from the banking system.
According to him:
“Treating Bitcoin as NEGATIVE capital ignores its incredible liquidity, independence from the rest of the financial system, and all of its hedging properties.”
Park furthered that accounting and tax frameworks are already catching up to this reality. The Financial Accounting Standards Board’s ASC 820 rule now allows companies to mark Bitcoin at fair value.
At the same time, US Treasury CAMT guidance enables firms to exclude unrealized gains or losses from minimum-tax calculations.
He noted:
“RAC is the last loner of the the three governing bodies standing illogically orphaned.”
How does the rating impact Bitcoin?
Credit ratings are the gatekeepers of global finance. They determine how $130 trillion in fixed-income capital, spanning pension funds, insurers, and sovereign wealth portfolios, allocates risk.
So, a single-letter upgrade or downgrade can redirect billions in capital flows overnight.
Until this month, Bitcoin had no place in that ecosystem. Most regulated investors are prohibited from holding unclassified assets, leaving BTC exposure largely to equities or ETFs.
However, S&P’s evaluation of Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin-centric firm changes that framework.
This reclassification opens a narrow but significant channel for this class of investors.
Institutional investors constrained by mandate can now gain indirect Bitcoin exposure through the rated debt of a Bitcoin-backed issuer.
While these funds may never hold BTC directly, they can hold bonds tied to it, thereby providing an entry point that embeds Bitcoin into the architecture of global credit.
So, if only 1% of the world’s bond market were to rotate toward Bitcoin-linked instruments, that would translate to roughly $1.3 trillion in potential inflows. Notably, this is more than twice Ethereum’s market capitalization and larger than Mexico’s GDP.
Moreover, the implications extend beyond Strategy’s borrowing costs.
The rating represents BTC’s first credential within the credit hierarchy, signaling the asset’s entry into the structured finance core.
As a result, three systemic effects follow:
First, Bitcoin climbs the collateral ladder, joining gold and investment-grade bonds as acceptable security for loans and structured products.
Second, institutional eligibility widens—pension funds and credit vehicles can justify exposure to BTC-backed instruments under existing regulatory mandates.
Third, regulatory integration accelerates as rating methodologies inform Basel-aligned risk-weight frameworks, allowing Bitcoin exposure to be quantified rather than disqualified.
Together, these dynamics shift Bitcoin’s behavior. Instead of trading solely on speculative momentum, it begins attracting duration-based capital, which is yield-seeking money that stabilizes sovereign debt markets.
In that sense, S&P’s ‘B-’ designation is less about Strategy’s solvency than Bitcoin’s functional recognition as collateral. It marks the point where volatility starts to be expressed through yield spreads rather than sentiment.
As more rated issuers appear, BTC will build a credit history that agencies can model and investors can price.
Over time, the world’s first “Bitcoin yield curve” could emerge, allowing the asset to trade as digital gold and as a measurable, rated component of the global credit system.
Over the past year, Bitcoin’s exchange-traded fund (ETF) boom has been celebrated as proof that Wall Street has finally embraced crypto. Yet the numbers reveal something far more fragile.
On Oct. 28, Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33 Research, noted that US-traded Bitcoin ETFs have attracted about $26.9 billion in inflows year-to-date.
However, that headline figure hides a stark imbalance that BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) alone accounts for roughly $28.1 billion of those flows.
US Bitcoin ETFs Flows (Source: Vetle Lunde)
In other words, Bitcoin ETFs would be in net outflows this year without IBIT. The product’s relentless accumulation has single-handedly offset redemptions across competitors, keeping aggregate inflows positive and sustaining Bitcoin’s narrative of institutional adoption.
A market held by one fund
Since launching in early 2024, IBIT has dominated every major performance metric in the ETF ecosystem.
According to SoSo Value data, it has seen about $65.3 billion in lifetime inflows, compared to $21.3 billion across all other Bitcoin funds combined.
US Bitcoin ETFs Metrics (Source: SoSo Value)
Meanwhile, Grayscale’s GBTC has suffered roughly $24.6 billion in redemptions, confirming that without IBIT, the aggregate picture would be deeply negative.
This effectively means that BlackRock’s IBIT scale stands in a league of its own.
The fund drew $37 billion in its debut year and has added another $28 billion so far in 2025, pushing its total assets under management past $90 billion, which is well ahead of any competitor.
According to Coinperps data, Bitcoin ETFs collectively hold about 1.3 million BTC, and IBIT accounts for over 60% of that entire stash.
US Bitcoin ETF BTC Holdings (Source: Coinperps)
Why BlackRock’s IBIT was able to dominate
A significant part of IBIT’s growth can be linked to the fact that BlackRock has used its $12.5 trillion AUM, retail brokerage channels, and institutional relationships to channel demand into a single flagship product.
The asset manager’s entry into the emerging industry instantly conferred legitimacy on a sector still reeling from the broader crisis of trust.
“When BlackRock filed for IBIT, the price was $30,000 and the stench of FTX was still in air. It’s now [over] $110k (a return that is 7x that of the mighty S&P 500) and is now seen as legitimate for other big investors.”
Apart from that, the fund’s recent success can also be linked to how Bitcoin has transformed BlackRock’s investor base.
Last year, the firm revealed that three out of four IBIT investors were entirely new to BlackRock’s iShare product suite.
This shows that IBIT has become not just a crypto ETF but also a client-acquisition engine for the world’s largest asset manager.
Indeed, the asset manager’s custom creation mechanisms have become increasingly popular among large Bitcoin holders, or “whales,” who were once wary of traditional financial institutions. These mechanisms allow investors to transfer their Bitcoin directly to the ETF in exchange for new shares, bypassing the need to sell on the open market.
This strong dominance has created a halo effect that has proven very profitable for BlackRock.
Barely more than a year old, IBIT already ranks as BlackRock’s top ten revenue generators, surpassing long-standing funds like the iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF.
BlackRock IBIT Revenue (Source: Bloomberg)
What happens when the flows slow?
IBIT’s overarching dominance of the Bitcoin ETF space begs the question of what will happen when its numbers eventually slow down.
If IBIT’s inflows taper, the immediate impact would be felt across market liquidity and price stability. At its current size, even a modest reduction in buying could remove a significant source of consistent demand. That demand has acted as a quasi-monetary inflow, offsetting miner sell pressure and exchange outflows.
A slowdown would therefore widen spreads on US spot exchanges, reduce arbitrage opportunities for market makers, and weaken the feedback loop that has kept Bitcoin’s price anchored above key support levels. In essence, the ETF bid has become Bitcoin’s floor, and IBIT is most of that bid.
The knock-on effects would also ripple through institutional sentiment.
If month-over-month flows turn negative, family offices and RIA desks benchmarking performance to IBIT could rebalance away from Bitcoin ETFs entirely. That withdrawal would lower the “liquidity premium” currently embedded in Bitcoin’s price.
Finally, a sustained stagnation in IBIT inflows could shift capital toward Ethereum and newly launched altcoins ETFs, eroding Bitcoin’s dominance ratio.
However, Lunde pointed out that BlackRock’s absence from these product suites could limit their overall net flows.
XRP entered the final week of October with leverage rebuilt and a working beta to Bitcoin that can be applied to near-term ranges two weeks after the tariff shock.
Aggregated XRP open interest sits near $4.4 billion and funding has normalized around neutral to slightly positive, a setup that historically favors outsized moves when shorts are forced to cover.
Market context is calmer than the crash window. Data show the VIX near the mid-teens, the dollar index near 98 to 99, and the 10-year Treasury yield close to 4 percent, with the 10-year anchoring rates while positioning rebuilds.
Prices at today’s London open had Bitcoin near $114,300 and XRP near $2.63, framing the base for scenario math over the next ten days.
The reset that put this beta back in focus came during the Oct. 10 to Oct. 13 purge, when forced selling cleared leverage across majors. Crypto futures saw roughly $19 billion in liquidations during that window.
The unwind removed crowded longs and created air pockets in derivatives order books, which is why subsequent positive funding and rising open interest matter for path dependency. With positioning refilling, relief phases often travel farther than the initial drawdown because price can run into stacked short liquidation clusters.
Coinglass liquidation heatmaps make those bands visible in real time, and funding moving above zero over multiple eight-hour intervals is the tell that squeezes can extend once those bands are engaged.
Macro drivers set the backdrop for that microstructure.
Lower volatility in the VIX bucket below 20 has aligned with narrower ranges across risk assets, while a dollar index south of 100 and a 10-year near 4 percent keep the policy channel in focus ahead of the Federal Reserve’s October meeting, followed by third-quarter GDP and PCE readings.
Oil has bounced from this month’s lows as tariff rhetoric cooled, removing a tail-risk that had coincided with the earlier drawdown. Correlation remains elevated enough to anchor a ratio framework, with 30-day reads near 0.8 between XRP and Bitcoin keeping directional beta estimates relevant even though beta expands and contracts with leverage and liquidity conditions.
A state-dependent approach is the cleanest way to carry the story forward. In a base regime where the VIX sits around 14 to 18, the dollar remains under 100, and XRP funding tracks from flat to moderately positive while open interest rises at a measured pace, a working beta of 1.3 to 1.8 times to Bitcoin fits tape behavior since the reset.
In a squeeze regime where volatility drifts lower, spot inflows stay firm, open interest climbs quickly, and funding registers above 0.02 percent per eight hours for at least two days, up-beta has historically stretched closer to 1.8 to 2.6 times as short-covering and liquidation triggers add mechanical extension.
If macro stress returns, for example a hawkish surprise at the Fed or a growth miss that lifts the VIX above 22 and pushes the dollar over 100, down-beta tends to start lower, around 1.0 to 1.3 times, then increase only if long liquidation clusters break.
Trigger setup through Nov. 6
BTC move
Applied XRP beta
XRP move guide
Fed cuts 25 bps with a dovish tone, VIX ≤ 16, DXY
+4% to +6%
1.5x to 2.2x
+6% to +13%
Soft GDP and PCE that keep policy risk contained, VIX 14–15, modest positive funding
+2% to +4%
1.3x to 1.8x
+3% to +7%
Trade tone improves, price trades into near short-liquidation bands, funding elevated for 48h
Second-leg risk-off that hits long-liquidation clusters after an initial drop
−9% to −12%
1.2x to 1.6x
−11% to −19%
Those ranges rest on fresh positioning and macro inputs. XRP open interest near $4.4 billion provides the fuel line for any extension, while open interest and funding readings provide the directional tilt.
A record of over $5 billion dollars in net inflows into crypto investment products at the start of October kept Bitcoin near the top of the cross-market liquidity stack and explains why its path still sets the tape for alt betas.
The SEC and Ripple resolved their case with a $125 million penalty and CME’s XRP futures went live this year, both of which reduce legal friction and expand access, a structural backdrop that can amplify up-moves when positioning flips.
Price levels and macro anchors help frame the next ten days.
Bitcoin and XRP are near all-time highs, the VIX is elevated, Bitcoin and XRP are near all-time highs, the VIX remains elevated, the dollar index steady, and the 10-year yield stable.
Brent crude and WTI are at historically low levels within the past decade. The Federal Reserve’s meeting on Oct. 28 to Oct. 29, then GDP on Oct. 30 and PCE on Oct. 31, is an unusually tight sequence that will steer the VIX, the dollar, and yields, and by extension the beta dial that converts Bitcoin’s move into XRP’s move.
Traders can monitor a simple set of tripwires to keep the map current.
Funding sustained above 0.02 percent per eight hours for two days aligns with squeeze risk.
Open interest moving toward $5 billion deepens fuel for extensions.
A VIX break above 22 argues for using the downside rows in the table
A dollar index over 100 usually dampens risk appetite until it recedes.
The liquidity clusters on the Coinglass heatmap add mechanical extension once price enters those zones, so positioning, not headlines, often decides whether an impulse fades or runs.
The combination of rebuilding open interest and a funding backdrop that leans positive is back in place, which is why the conditional beta approach remains the framework for XRP over this ten-day window.
