分类： Bitcoin

• Starknet (STRK) price technical breakout signals bullish momentum with new resistance near $0.214.
• Bitcoin staking and BTCFi incentives drive STRK adoption and network growth.
• S-Two prover deployment has also boosted throughput, privacy, and decentralisation on Starknet.

Starknet (STRK) price has surged dramatically in recent days, catching the attention of traders and crypto enthusiasts alike.

The altcoin has gained more than 30% in just 24 hours, fueled by a combination of technological upgrades, strategic integration with Bitcoin, and renewed market optimism.

This sudden upswing has sparked questions about what is driving STRK’s momentum and whether the altcoin can sustain its gains in the near term.

Bitcoin staking boosts STRK utility

One of the primary drivers behind the rally is Starknet’s BTCFi initiative, which allows Bitcoin (BTC) holders to stake their BTC and earn STRK rewards while maintaining custody.

The program has already attracted significant capital, with over $200 million staked on the network, including 880 million STRK and 835 BTC, according to the latest reports.

Over $200,000,000 are now staked on Starknet.

That’s 880M STRK and 835 BTC strengthening Starknet’s consensus.

Numbers don’t lie. pic.twitter.com/NS2zzqCfty

— Starknet (BTCFi arc) (@Starknet) November 10, 2025

By tapping into Bitcoin’s massive $2.1 trillion market capitalisation, Starknet positions STRK as a key rewards token and a practical asset for paying network fees.

The BTCFi ecosystem expansion not only strengthens Starknet’s liquidity but also enhances its cross-chain utility.

Investors are closely monitoring total value locked (TVL) in Bitcoin staking, which currently sits at around $1.5 billion, to gauge continued adoption and the altcoin’s potential growth.

The influx of BTC and STRK into the network has bolstered confidence in the protocol’s future, creating a clear catalyst for the recent price surge.

S-Two Prover accelerates adoption and decentralisation

Another major factor propelling STRK is the deployment of StarkWare’s next-generation S-two Prover.

Released on the mainnet a few days ago, this open-source zero-knowledge proof system is designed to increase throughput, reduce verification costs, and strengthen decentralisation.

By producing validity proofs for every block up to ten times faster than its predecessor, the S-two prover allows real-time verification of off-chain transactions and supports new types of applications, from private DeFi protocols to zk-secured games and verifiable AI.

S-two is designed to operate efficiently even on consumer hardware, meaning that anyone can participate in the network without relying on centralised data centres.

This advancement not only improves network security and censorship resistance but also significantly enhances user experience.

The combination of speed, privacy, and accessibility makes Starknet a more compelling platform for developers and investors alike, contributing directly to bullish sentiment surrounding STRK.

Market analysts also note that the recent surge is supported by optimism surrounding Starknet’s v0.14.0 upgrade.

The update introduces distributed sequencers, 6-second blocks, and EIP-1559-style fee burns, all of which improve decentralisation and network efficiency.

While early migration caused temporary outages, the upgrade underscores Starknet’s commitment to building a secure, scalable Layer 2 ecosystem that can interact with both Ethereum and Bitcoin.

Technical breakout fuels the STRK price rally

From a technical perspective, STRK has confirmed a major bullish breakout.

The altcoin surpassed the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.1343 and remains above the 30-day simple moving average of $0.1216.

Momentum indicators such as the RSI and MACD show strong upward trends, signalling that the altcoin has invalidated much of its previous yearly downtrend.

With resistance set near $0.214, traders should closely watch whether the current momentum can push STRK to new highs.

Bitcoin traders are monitoring the latest CME futures gap between Friday’s close at $104,160 and Sunday’s open at $110,370.

This six-thousand-dollar “missing” price action often attracts short-term moves. With Bitcoin near $105,900, focus is on whether the market will fill the gap or climb away from it.

When CME Bitcoin futures close on Friday, trading pauses until Sunday evening.

If Bitcoin moves sharply during this break, a chart gap appears between the last trade and the new open. Traders watch these gaps, viewing them as key indicators of price action. Over two-thirds of CME gaps since 2022 have closed within 48 hours.

The latest gap appeared as spot prices rallied over the weekend, spurred by improving sentiment in risk assets. Washington’s progress on ending the government shutdown reduced fiscal uncertainty, helping equities, crypto, and gold rebound.

The dollar weakened in early European trade, while Treasury yields eased, conditions that boost risk exposure.

On charts, the CME gap band runs from $104,160 to $110,370, placing the current spot roughly halfway inside it. A quick move through the lower edge could finish the “fill,” a term traders use when spot retraces into the gap’s empty zone and trades back across it.

Alternatively, if buyers defend current levels and momentum persists above $106,000, the space could remain open for a while.

Intraday setups revolve around that range. A decisive move below $104,000 could trigger short-term unwind pressure toward $102,000-$103,000, where liquidity is more pronounced on Coinbase order books.

Holding above $106,000-$107,000, on the other hand, would signal resilience and may realign futures with spot without a deep retrace.

For context, the CME has recorded four material weekend gaps since late summer. Three closed within 24-48 hours; one, from early September, stayed open for more than a week before eventually filling. These episodes tend to compress volatility temporarily before resuming the prior trend.

As the US market open nears, traders are watching whether the shutdown resolution and broader risk-on tone provide enough momentum to keep Bitcoin from revisiting the full $104k-$110k range, or if the futures magnet pulls it back once again.

Bitcoin is back at $106,400, a pivot point that has been critical to this cycle’s rallies and pullbacks.

As we outlined in “Today’s $106k retest decided Bitcoin’s fate,” acceptance above this band has tended to unlock the next level. At the same time, rejection has forced a rebuild below a fair-value axis that acts as both support and resistance, depending on the flows and positioning.

As we outlined in “Today’s 106k retest decided Bitcoin’s fate,” the $106,400 band is this cycle’s fair-value axis, a support and resistance (S/R) pivot that has repeatedly organized trends.

Acceptance (after a retest) is typically bullish, usually unlocking the next shelf; rejection forces a rebuild to the lower level.

That dovetails with my previous analysis, “The bear market cycle started at 126k,” which argues that the burden of proof now lies with flows and skew, without a 5- to 10-day streak of net ETF creations, a visible skew pivot toward calls. Ultimately, a hold above about $126,272, the market should treat rallies as distribution.

In short, if $106.4k is flipped, the bull extends toward $114k to $120k; if it fails, the $126k-top framework remains in control, reopening at 100k to the high-90ks.

The tape case rests on whether fresh demand actually arrives.

Bitcoin investment products experienced roughly $946 million in net outflows during the week to November 3, following heavy inflows the previous week. That kind of flow whiplash is not the 5-to-10-day creation streak we set as the opposite-case checklist.

Daily flow prints across the United States spot ETF complex have been mixed and choppy, according to Farside’s dashboard, with one-off creation days failing to build momentum. When the burden of proof lies with the flow, streaks matter more than single prints, and so far, the data show inconsistent demand.

Derivatives positioning adds a second gate. Options open interest on Deribit reached a record of nearly $50.27 billion on October 23, with notable put interest clustered around $100,000. Elevated open interest changes how dealers hedge, often pinning prices near round strikes and capping upside until the skew flips from put-bid to call-bid.

Without that pivot in 25-delta skew, and without a sustained expansion in spot volume alongside creations, price tends to fade back toward the fair-value axis rather than building a platform above it.

The level map is straightforward and mechanical.

A clean daily close, followed by a weekly close, above $106,400 to $108,000, would convert the band from ceiling to support, which has historically released prices into the $114,000 range, then $117,000 to $120,000, where supply reappeared.

Confirmation comes from two to three consecutive net inflow days across the United States ETF set, a flattening of skew toward calls, and real spot follow-through. If those conditions expand to a 5- to 10-day creation streak, the path opens to prior high-volume nodes above $120,000 before the next decision.

Failure appears as a clean intraday stab over the pivot that slips back into the close, or a lower high beneath it, while ETF flows remain net negative and skew leans put-bid again. That sequence keeps the $126,000 top framework in control.

The path of least resistance becomes $103,000, then $100,000, with a break reopening the high-$90,000s. This is consistent with prior pivot-loss repair phases around the same axis, where failed reclaims forced price to rebuild structure below until flows and skew turned.

There is also the range case.

With open interest heavy and dealers sensitive to gamma around the $100,000 and $110,000 dollar strikes, pinning between $102,000 and $109,000 is a reasonable near-term outcome if the ETF prints fail to string together and the skew oscillates.

That setup bleeds volatility and creates false breaks around $106,400, which keeps the burden on structural demand to resolve the range. Single-day outflow spikes of nearly $500 million in late October are examples of headline risk that move prices without shifting the regime, a pattern that tends to unwind once the tape returns to its axis.

The halving-clock and cycle math keep the broader frame intact. If $126,000 stands as the peak printed in early October, the gain over the 2021 high sits near 82 percent, which fits a diminishing returns profile that we mapped to prior cycles, even if it lands slightly above a straight-line decay.

That timing lens aligns with the idea that the bear cycle began at $126,000, and that invalidation requires more than price tapping a line. It requires proof from the plumbing, meaning sustained creation and a durable skew pivot, then a hold above $126,272 to open, ranging from $135,000 to $155,000 before distribution resumes.

Quant guardrails help ensure the subsequent tests are accurate.

We flagged an eighth approach to $106,400, which is uncommon for a level that has held this long. Historically, repeated retests erode support or resistance until a decisive break forces repricing.

Setups like this reward a rules-based approach, where acceptance or rejection dictates positioning and risk, rather than a narrative that assumes the level will continue to work. The same discipline applies to flows, where a green day without follow-through does not meet the 5- to 10-day bar that defines a structural bid.

Macro will modulate the tape, but the triggers remain local. A back-up in yields or a firmer dollar tends to pressure risk and validate failed reclaims, while easing financial conditions tend to aid Scenario A.

Those are secondary toggles following ETF creations and options skew, which carry the proximate burden for this market, given the size of passive spot demand and the concentration of options positioning at round strikes. The flow path has to change before the price path can extend beyond the known shelves.

If $106,400 is reclaimed with a two-to-three-day ETF inflow streak, $114,000 to $120,000 returns to the deck.

If the pivot rejects while the next weekly ETF print shows net outflows, the $126,000 top framework drives the next leg lower. If skew stays put-heavy into expiry, derivatives gravity will keep price pinned beneath the pivot until that burden of proof flips.

The chart draws the lines, but flows and skew pull the trigger. Without a 5- to 10-day run of net creations, a visible skew toward calls, and a hold above approximately $126,272, rallies are considered distribution, and $100,000 comes back into view.

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) just fell off a cliff. For most people outside financial circles, that means absolutely nothing. For markets, it’s seismic.

Borrowing money overnight in U.S. markets suddenly got much cheaper. And in the plumbing of the global financial system, that’s the equivalent of someone opening the floodgates a little wider.

A falling SOFR looks good on paper.

On paper, this appears to be a win for liquidity. Cheaper short-term financing suggests that banks can breathe easier, businesses can roll credit more affordably, and risk appetite can expand again. That’s historically good news for risk-on assets like Bitcoin and crypto.

But as analysis from End Game Macro points out, this isn’t just another statistical blip. The financial system quietly adjusted itself, and not by coincidence.

When the cost of borrowing against Treasuries drops this quickly, “it usually means there’s too much cash and not enough collateral, money chasing safety.” That imbalance doesn’t appear out of nowhere. It often stems from Treasury spending surges or institutions front-running a policy shift that has not yet been made public.

In simple terms? Liquidity got cheaper not because risk declined, but because someone (or something) turned the tap back on.

The quiet stimulus

Liquidity waves like this have a history of jolting risk assets higher. As End Game Macro points out, the same mechanics that helped soothe repo markets in 2019 and kept credit flowing after the 2023 bank failures are back in motion.

With a low SOFR, treasury dealers and leveraged funds suddenly face easier financing conditions, and that relief ripples into equities, tech, and increasingly, digital assets.

Bitcoin, in particular, tends to love this kind of stealth easing. When cash is abundant and interest rates ease unexpectedly, investors shift toward assets that thrive in a liquidity-rich environment.

As Ray Dalio recently warned, when policymakers stimulate “into a bubble,” risk markets often overshoot in the short term before reality catches up.

That dynamic is unfolding again: a liquidity jolt that lifts everything, disguising fragility as strength.

Control, not stability. We’ve seen this movie before. In 2020, the system was flooded in response to a crisis. In 2023, it quietly loosened again after regional bank tremors. Each time, calm returned through intervention rather than resilience. This time is no different. The fall in SOFR gives markets a shot of calm but signals that true normalization never arrived.

For traders and asset managers, that translates to lower funding costs and a temporary window of risk-on conditions. For retirees, savers, or small businesses financed at floating rates, it serves as another reminder that yield is fleeting and prices remain policy-dependent.

The illusion holds for now.

The immediate effect is that asset prices are buoyant, credit spreads are tightening, and market sentiment is turning optimistic again. Bitcoin and other risk assets are likely to catch a bid as SOFR liquidity returns to the market. However, this isn’t organic growth; it’s a revival of leverage.

As End Game Macro concludes, liquidity hides risk; it doesn’t erase it. A system that depends on ever-larger fixes becomes numb to fundamentals. Each injection of liquidity feels good while it lasts. Markets rally, confidence builds, and the illusion feels real. Until it doesn’t.

All eyes in global finance are glued to liquidity. As the global broad money supply reaches a record $142 trillion, this monetary firehose has macro investors sitting up in their seats. Surging 6.7% year-on-year as of September, China, the EU, and the U.S. are driving this unprecedented expansion, and Bitcoin and the broader crypto market may be next in line.​

The countdown to QE: NY Fed sets the stage

New York Fed President John Williams signaled on Friday that the era of Quantitative Easing (QE) could return sooner than markets were prepared for. With persistent liquidity pressures and money market signals flashing amber, Williams confirmed the central bank is poised to end Quantitative Tightening (QT) and may need to expand its balance sheet again.

Once the balance sheet has reached ample reserves, he told attendees at the European Bank Conference, “it will then be time to begin the process of gradual purchases of assets,” hinting that bond purchases could resume to support market stability.

Many analysts now expect the Fed could restart asset acquisitions as soon as Q1 2026, which would be a watershed event for global liquidity.​ As macro investor Raoul Pal urged his followers:

“You just need to get through the Window of Pain and The Liquidity Flood lies ahead.”

Massive money supply: Where does the cash go?

The ripples from the money press are global. The Kobeissi Letter broke down the numbers: since 2000, global broad money supply has grown by 446%, up $116 trillion from the turn of the millennium.

China now leads the pack with $47 trillion, followed by the EU and U.S. at $22.3 trillion and $22.2 trillion, respectively. In other words?

“Money supply is through the roof.”

That’s a compounded annual growth rate of 7.0%, and a flood of potential capital hunting yield and shelter from currency debasement.​

When liquidity surges like this, it doesn’t slosh evenly; risk assets, hard assets, and new money narratives become magnets for global flows. Bitcoin, notoriously volatile but increasingly institutionalized, looks better positioned than ever to absorb the next reallocation wave, especially as bond yields compress and traditional assets stagnate.

Bad price action… Or bad assumptions?

Crypto Twitter, for all its noise, has spent the week tearing itself apart over red numbers and portfolio trauma. Dan Tapiero, founder of 10T Holdings and a longstanding macro trader, reminded us that bull markets rarely end when panic is everywhere.

“This bull phase in BTC and crypto ends when no one thinks it’s ending (ie not now)… Bad price action is supposed to shake weak hands. Mkts 101.”​

He’s not alone in this perspective. Even with frustrating tape and sentiment-charged exits, the structural story of money supply through the roof, and central banks flashing pivot, looks like the perfect setup for another speculative surge.

In fact, the most dangerous time for new capital chasing yield is often when the crowd is convinced the run is already over.

With the NY Fed ready to roll out QE once more and global liquidity showing no sign of slowing, the conditions are ripening for another rally in Bitcoin and crypto.

Weak hands may wobble, but as seasoned macro voices note, real bull phases end in euphoria, not despair. Money pouring into the system must find a home, and the sequence of the global money supply flows may soon ignite the next big leg up in digital assets.

Renowned short seller James Chanos has officially closed his $MSTR/Bitcoin hedged trade after 11 months, marking an end to his high-profile bet against Bitcoin-linked equities and Strategy stock.​ The unwinding of institutional short positions is a trend reversal indicator that could mean the worst for Bitcoin treasury companies is behind them.

The bitcoin treasury ecosystem has been battered and bruised in recent weeks. Most companies’ stock is significantly down from peaks earlier this year, and analysts have been calling investors to short stocks like MSTR. They fervently cautioned that a bubble was present in bitcoin treasury companies, and it was about to unceremoniously burst.

But just as the shorting pressure was reaching fever pitch, a reprieve may be on the horizon. On Saturday, Pierre Rochard, CEO of The Bitcoin Bond Company and treasury sage, declared that the bear market for Bitcoin treasury companies is “gradually coming to an end.”

To his mind, the unwinding of institutional shorts, one of the cleanest signals in the game, suggests the tide may be turning:

“Expect continued volatility, but this is the kind of signal you want to see for a reversal.”

Not exactly champagne-popping territory, but for those who have waded through endless bearish sentiment and mNAV headaches, hope is about as welcome as rain in a desert.

James Chanos unwinds his Bitcoin treasury short

One of those shorts belonged to none other than James Chanos, the renowned investor and long-time foe of anything with “Bitcoin” on the label.

Chanos has officially closed out his $MSTR/Bitcoin hedged trade after 11 months, marking the end of a high-profile bet against the poster child for corporate BTC accumulation. For those keeping score at home, MicroStrategy is now holding over 640,000 BTC, and steadily buying every dip as if Michael Saylor never heard of risk management.

Chanos confirmed the move on X, sparking a flurry of takes and “is this the bottom?” threads across crypto Twitter.​ He posted:

“As we have gotten some inquiries, I can confirm that we have unwound our $MSTR/Bitcoin hedged trade as of yesterday’s open.”

The institutional players changing the game

Meanwhile, the institutional mood is quietly shifting. Traditional finance heavyweights are entering the chat; not as naysayers, but as stakeholders, participants, and, crucially, treasury innovators.

JPMorgan’s recent maneuvering in BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF, plus a slew of custody and settlement deals popping up in the news, point to a world where corporate Bitcoin adoption is less “wild west,” more boardroom strategy. Whether it’s pushing up ETF flows, tweaking treasury yield strategies, or rating digital assets on par with real-world securities, the shift is happening beneath the surface.​

Of course, none of this suggests an imminent escape from volatility for Bitcoin treasury companies. Bitcoin remains haunted by the ghosts of macro uncertainty and regulatory U-turns. But the closure of headline shorts, especially those run by high-profile skeptics like Chanos, isn’t just about dollars; it’s a psychological turning point.

For both Bitcoin’s price and the institutional narrative, the message is clear: the worst may just be behind us, and the next chapter isn’t being written by the usual suspects.​

UK citizens are currently blocked from viewing certain Ledger blog pages, including an educational post on multisig wallets, due to new compliance rules. When visiting these pages, users in the UK receive a message:

“Due to new rules in the UK, certain Ledger.com webpages are restricted.”

These restrictions affect crypto educational resources and are linked to more stringent financial promotions rules instituted by UK regulators in late 2025, requiring strict registration and approval processes for crypto-related content or inducements.​

This clampdown means that important guides, like Ledger multi-sig instructions, meant to help users secure their assets or download associated technical materials, are currently inaccessible if their connection is detected as UK-based. Some users have reported needing to rely on VPNs just to access documentation or binary verification files for their hardware wallets.​

The Ledger block is part of a broader regulatory trend in the UK

The Ledger situation is part of a broader regulatory trend, as the UK implements a suite of new rules designed to tightly govern crypto communications, restrict unapproved financial promotions, and regulate access to certain investment products.

The intention, according to official statements, is increased consumer protection. But critics argue it puts practical blockchain education and security at arm’s length for UK retail users.​

Further reflecting this tightening regulatory environment, a recent Coinbase advertisement was banned in the UK for allegedly making misleading claims and criticizing local economic conditions. The ad was ultimately distributed via online channels after being pulled from television and billboards.

Major banks, particularly NatWest, also continue to restrict crypto transactions for UK residents, refusing business clients who accept Bitcoin and capping deposits for retail customers. Many UK banking apps now warn users against crypto spending or block outbound payments to exchanges, a trend seen as stifling access to digital assets for everyday investors.​

Reduced privacy, increased surveillance

Beyond the blocking of certain Ledger pages, the UK’s digital ID scheme, announced in September 2025, will make digital identification mandatory for work eligibility and accessing public services, with government assurances of strong encryption and personal privacy.

Civil liberties groups, however, warn that such systems, especially given their expansion into real-time database checks, pose major risks of surveillance, exclusion, and data breaches, with fears that vulnerable populations could be further marginalized.

The scheme puts Britain squarely into a global trend, as Europe advances a digital euro for retail settlements and discusses programmable central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). This initiative has drawn parallel concerns about anonymity and data use.​

Globally, the crackdown on privacy-centric crypto projects has intensified as well. The recent sentencing of Samourai Wallet developer Keonne Rodriguez in the U.S. highlights how privacy-enhancing technologies are being policed and increasingly equated with criminal activity by regulators.

As UK regulators impose heavier controls across banking, advertising, and personal identification, the partial Ledger website blockade could be just one of many more such issues to come.

Bitcoin’s recent struggle to hold the $100,000 level has revived familiar doubts about whether institutional demand is durable.

However, in a new filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, BlackRock signals the opposite conclusion, saying its conviction in Bitcoin’s long-term relevance remains intact despite short-term market weakness.

The firm frames Bitcoin as a decades-long structural theme shaped by adoption curves, liquidity depth, and the declining credibility of legacy monetary systems.

While this view acknowledges volatility, it argues that Bitcoin’s strategic value is accelerating faster than its price suggests. That tone contrasts with a market where each pullback often renews questions about institutional endurance.

The paradox of slowing prices and rising institutional demand

A central pillar of BlackRock’s argument is Bitcoin’s network-growth profile, which it describes as one of the fastest seen in any modern technology cycle.

The filing cites adoption estimates showing that Bitcoin surpassed 300 million global users roughly 12 years after launch, outpacing both mobile phones and the early internet, which each took significantly longer to reach similar thresholds.

For BlackRock, this curve is more than a data point. It reframes Bitcoin as a long-duration asset whose value reflects cumulative network participation rather than month-to-month price moves.

The firm also includes a decade-long performance matrix showing that, despite wild swings in individual years, which often place Bitcoin at either the top or bottom of annual return tables, its cumulative and annualized performance still exceeds that of equities, gold, commodities, and bonds.

That framing positions volatility as a built-in cost of exposure rather than a structural flaw.

For an asset manager whose products are designed for multi-decade allocations rather than short-cycle momentum trades, temporary stagnation appears less like a warning and more like a familiar feature of Bitcoin’s cyclical rhythm.

The filing also emphasizes that the asset’s current slowdown has not dented institutional participation. If anything, BlackRock argues, Bitcoin’s underlying fundamentals of digital adoption, macroeconomic uncertainty, and the expansion of regulated market infrastructure continue to strengthen even as spot prices cool.

How IBIT changed Bitcoin’s market structure

A second theme in the filing is the argument that BlackRock’s own product, the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), has reshaped access to the asset in ways that support deeper institutional involvement.

The firm highlights three areas, including simplified exposure, enhanced liquidity, and the integration of regulated custody and pricing rails.

BlackRock stated that IBIT reduces operational frictions by allowing institutions to hold Bitcoin through a structure they already understand.

According to the firm, custody risks, key-management issues, and technical onboarding, which have historically been barriers for institutions, are abstracted away in favor of traditional settlement channels.

At the same time, BlackRock also highlighted liquidity as one of the most significant impacts IBIT has had on the market.

Since its launch, the product has become the most actively traded Bitcoin ETF, contributing to tighter spreads and deeper order books. For large allocators, execution quality acts as a form of validation: the more liquid the product, the more institutionally acceptable the underlying asset becomes.

Moreover, BlackRock also highlighted its multi-year infrastructure work with Coinbase Prime, regulated price benchmarks, and strict audit frameworks as evidence that Bitcoin exposure can now be delivered with standards comparable to equities or fixed income.

Because of that design, the firm has processed more than $3 billion in in-kind transfers — a sign, it says, of institutional and whale confidence in its custody architecture.

Notably, IBIT flows reinforce all of the points above. Since its launch, IBIT has emerged as the dominant Bitcoin ETF product in the market, with cumulative net inflows of $64.45 billion and over $80 billion in assets under management.

In fact, IBIT’s inflows for this year have outpaced all of the combined flows recorded by the other 10 Bitcoin products in the market, according to K33 Research data.

Bitcoin as a global monetary alternative

The most assertive section of the filing is labeled “global monetary alternative.” BlackRock describes Bitcoin as a scarce, decentralized asset positioned to benefit from persistent geopolitical disorder, rising debt burdens, and long-term erosion in fiat credibility.

The firm does not frame Bitcoin as a direct replacement for sovereign currencies, but the implication is clear: the asset’s relevance increases as traditional monetary systems face stress.

BlackRock also situates Bitcoin within a broader technological transition. As the most widely adopted cryptocurrency, Bitcoin functions as a proxy bet on the mainstreaming of digital-asset infrastructure, including blockchain-based payments, settlement systems, and financial market rails.

In this context, Bitcoin has two intertwined identities as a monetary hedge and a technological exposure.

This dual narrative helps explain BlackRock’s sustained bullishness. One pillar of the thesis is macroeconomic, tied to inflation dynamics, fiscal trajectory, and geopolitical fragmentation. The other is structural, tied to the ongoing global expansion of blockchain networks.

Considering this, the recent slow price action does not meaningfully disrupt either thesis.

Welcome to Slate Sunday, CryptoSlate’s weekly feature showcasing in-depth interviews, expert analysis, and thought-provoking op-eds that go beyond the headlines to explore the ideas and voices shaping the future of crypto.

Michael Burry, the “Big Short” protagonist whose bet against the mortgage bubble made him a living legend, is back in the business of raining on parades. This time, instead of subprime debt, his sights are locked on Silicon Valley, specifically, the AI bubble he believes is about to pop.

This week, Burry’s hedge fund revealed a whopping $1.1 billion in put options against the AI titans Nvidia and Palantir. For those less versed in Wall Street lingo, that means Burry is betting that the stocks will… well, go splat.​

Why is this important? Because when Michael Burry thinks there’s a bubble, people listen (if not for investment advice, at least for the entertainment value). After all, for every housing-market Cassandra, there’s a hundred Chicken Littles. But Burry is no stranger to calling out absurd market exuberance (and making bank while doing it).

‘Bats*** crazy’ vs. billion-dollar bets: The Palantir perspective

Enter Alex Karp, Palantir’s CEO, wielding a verbal flamethrower. Karp’s response to Burry’s big bet? The notion that anyone would short AI companies is utterly absurd. He retorted:

“The two companies he’s shorting are the ones making all the money, which is super weird.”

He didn’t stop there, doubling down:

“The idea that chips and ontology is what you want to short is bats*** crazy… He’s actually putting a short on AI.”

Palantir’s numbers do back up a certain bravado. The company upgraded full-year revenue forecasts after a record Q3 and posted 173% gains over the last year.

Yet Wall Street’s obsession with AI is a double-edged sword, and even as Palantir beats forecasts, its share price can tumble 8–10% in a single breath, all thanks to valuation jitters and the swirling specter of “AI bubble trouble.”​

Nvidia’s cycle: Virtuous or viscous?

As for Nvidia, CEO Jensen Huang had his own take, downplaying investor fears.

“I don’t believe we’re in an AI bubble,” Huang asserted in a Bloomberg Television interview, immediately after announcing a slew of new partnerships and the company’s projection to generate half a trillion dollars in revenue.

Huang isn’t fazed by the bubble talk; he’s too busy selling the world’s hottest chips and projecting a multi-trillion-dollar industry. If anything, the Nvidia CEO believes the U.S. isn’t doing enough to develop AI, and its restrictive policy vis-à-vis China will ultimately hurt the world’s number-one superpower. He ruefully told reporters at the Financial Times’ Future of AI Summit on Wednesday:

“China is going to win the AI race… we need to be in China to win their developers. A policy that causes America to lose half of the world’s AI developers is not beneficial in the long term; it hurts us more.”

Still, if you peek under the hood, Nvidia’s stock (which has soared more than 50% this year) slipped 3–4% intraday on November 4, on news of Burry’s short.

And some investors remain jittery, especially with looming U.S. chip export restrictions to China and the trillion-dollar question: Is momentum fueling monstrous valuations, or is it genuine demand?

AI bubble mania meets reality: Trillions on the table, triggers everywhere

Let’s zoom out. Nvidia just became the world’s first tech firm worth $5 trillion. That’s bigger than all the banks in the U.S. and Canada combined. The “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks (including Nvidia) now occupy a regal 35% of the S&P 500’s entire market cap.

AI investment has soared past $1 trillion a year, while consumer stocks like Kraft Heinz are getting trounced. As global capital markets expert, The Kobeissi Letter, pointed out:

“There are 2 US economies: Rich vs Poor, and AI is the lifeline of it all.”

Car repossessions are climbing. Wage growth is stalling. And Americans are carrying record levels of credit card debt, with interest rates hovering near historic peaks. Unless you count the influence of AI and data centers, America’s real economic growth is barely limping along, clocking in at just 0.01% according to Harvard economist Jason Furman.

Meanwhile, Wall Street’s top performers are running laps around Main Street, which is still struggling to catch its breath. The gap between winner-takes-all tech stocks and everyday households paints a pretty stark picture of today’s economy. If and when the AI bubble bursts, it’s going to hit like a Tyson left hook.

Macro analyst and goldbug Peter Schiff, never one to miss an opportunity to dunk on Bitcoin, is wholly pessimistic as ever. Not only does he believe that crypto is about to blow up, but he’s right up there with Burry on AI:

“The losses that will be suffered by Bitcoin HODLers and crypto investors will be staggering. More money will be lost in this bubble than was lost when the dot-com bubble popped. But if this signals an aversion to risk in general, look out for the even bigger AI bubble to burst.”

Yet the most poignant critic of the moment is Burry himself, betting 80% of his portfolio on the AI bubble. He mused to his audience on Twitter:

“Sometimes, we see bubbles. Sometimes, there is something to do about it. Sometimes, the only winning move is not to play.”​

Technicals, tension, and the trouble with timing

If the spectacle feels familiar, that’s because it is. In the dot-com era, pet-food websites with no earnings became household names, only to crash harder than a piano from a fourth-floor window.

Today, instead of dogs.com, it’s chips and data lakes; “chips and ontology,” as Karp jibes, with RSI readings above 70, price-to-earnings ratios exceeding 200 for Palantir, and price-to-book rocketing past 69. Nvidia and Palantir are riding a wave of profitability, but also expectations that would make a seasoned gambler sweat bullets.​

The sell-off that followed Burry’s disclosure was real: Palantir shares dropped nearly 9%, Nvidia shed over 3%, and the S&P 500 retreated alongside tech sector peers Oracle and Tesla. The sell-off bled into crypto as well, with Bitcoin briefly falling below $100,000 a coin for the first time since June.

CNBC reported Karp’s outrage, suggesting Burry’s actions were bordering on market manipulation as much as macro pessimism. He seethed:

“I think what is going on here is market manipulation. We delivered the best results anyone’s ever seen… I mean, these people, they claim to be ethical, but you know, they’re actually shorting one of the great businesses of the world.”

Big tech’s bubble or a decade of dominance?

Meanwhile, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has openly acknowledged that the AI market is likely in a bubble. He told reporters:

“Are we in a phase where investors as a whole are overexcited about AI? My opinion is yes. Is AI the most important thing to happen in a very long time? My opinion is also yes… When bubbles happen, smart people get overexcited about a kernel of truth.”

Still, he also argued that bubbles don’t kill revolutions, and sometimes they birth the next economy.​ Wall Street isn’t sure whether to clap or cringe. And Burry’s short has gotten them nervous.

Palantir, despite “otherworldly growth,” now has to deliver on 40–50% annual revenue expansion and 50% gross margins just to justify its price. The sector-wide rally is monumental, but a single tweet or earnings miss could knock out tens of billions in minutes.​

The punchline: Everything’s absurd; until it isn’t

Burry’s bearishness, Karp’s swagger, Huang’s angst; the AI bubble debate is a masterclass in financial melodrama. Are we witnessing history rhyming, or is tech simply flexing its muscles in a world desperate for new growth drivers?

If you trust Burry’s gut, there’s pain ahead. If you prefer your tech with a heaping side of chips (the silicon kind), maybe this is just the beginning. Karp insisted:

“I do think this behavior is egregious, and I’m gonna be dancing around when he’s proven wrong.”​

Either way, bubbles are only obvious after they burst. Until then, thank Michael Burry for keeping the punch bowl spiked (and the market narrative anything but dull).

Ark Investment Management has just trimmed its 2030 Bitcoin bull case from $1.5 million to $1.2 million, and a $300,000 cut may sound dramatic until one understands what actually changed.

Cathie Wood didn’t panic about bond markets or abandon her thesis, but instead adjusted for competition.

In recent CNBC appearances and updates, Wood explicitly tied the revision to stablecoins “usurping part of the role we thought Bitcoin would play” in payments and as a dollar proxy in emerging markets.

The $1.2 million target still assumes Bitcoin captures substantial shares of gold’s market cap, strategic reserve allocation, and institutional adoption. The thesis was just moderated, it didn’t collapse.

But the stablecoin explanation doesn’t tell the whole story.

To understand why a lower, but still extraordinary, target makes sense now, it is necessary to connect three structural shifts: the explosive growth of on-chain dollars, the re-pricing of risk-free rates, and the maturation of Bitcoin’s institutional infrastructure through ETFs.

The stablecoin takeover

The aggregate stablecoin market capitalization stands at over $300 billion as of press time, with usage expanding across layer-2 networks and emerging market payment rails.

This is an operational infrastructure replacing correspondent banking and remittance networks.

Tether and its peers have become massive buyers of US Treasury bills, with its recent attestation report revealing that they hold $135 billion in T-bills as of September 30, making them the 17th-largest holder in the world.

That’s a sufficient scale to influence front-end yields materially. The USDT doesn’t just sit, it settles cross-border payments, facilitates on-chain commerce, and increasingly, passes yield to Tether.

Regulatory frameworks have accelerated adoption. MiCA in the EU, Hong Kong’s stablecoin regime, and the GENIUS Act in the US, along with active bank and fintech issuance plans, have transformed stablecoins from a regulatory gray area to a sanctioned infrastructure.

Major financial institutions are building stablecoin products not as crypto experiments but as core settlement layers.

Ark’s original $1.5 million path assumed that Bitcoin would dominate both the “digital gold” and the “better money for emerging markets” use cases.

However, the data now shows a massive share of that monetary function migrating to regulated stablecoins instead. Cutting the target by $300,000 is Ark acknowledging that Bitcoin’s total addressable market has contracted because its closest ally has eaten one of its roles.

Where bond chaos actually matters

Between April and May 2025, Treasury markets experienced significant volatility. The 10-year yield punched above 4.5%, the 30-year topped 5%, and term premia expanded sharply.

Drivers included persistent fiscal deficits, tariff uncertainty, signs of foreign buyer fatigue, and leveraged basis trades unwinding under stress. Liquidity thinned precisely when markets needed it most.

This matters for Bitcoin’s valuation story through three channels.

First, discount rate mathematics. Ark’s extreme targets conceptually rest on Bitcoin earning a substantial “monetary premium” compared to risk-free assets. A structurally higher term premium of 4% to 5% on the long end raises the hurdle for a zero-yield asset.

When T-bills accessed via stablecoins pay attractive yields and settle instantly on-chain, the relative upside needed to justify $1.5 million increases.

Second, the signal versus the story. If bond chaos had hardened into a true debasement crisis, surging inflation expectations, dollar flight, failed auctions, Ark could have argued for an even more extreme Bitcoin hedge.

Yet, the data cut both ways. Long-end yields spiked, yet inflation expectations remained contained, and subsequent months saw volatility cool as markets priced in Federal Reserve cuts and continued robust demand for US paper.

This backdrop undercuts the clean “bonds are broken, only BTC works” narrative.

Third, competition for safe yield. The combination of higher real yields and stablecoins absorbing T-bills while passing yield through various structures makes it easier for large allocators to park capital in tokenized dollars instead of moving fully out of the risk curve into Bitcoin.

On-chain Treasuries deliver yield, regulatory compliance, and instant settlement, making them a compelling alternative to a non-yielding monetary alternative.

The bond turmoil reinforces the logic of recognizing stablecoins and on-chain government debt as serious competitors to Bitcoin’s non-sovereign savings role. But it’s context, not cause.

ETF flows and the institutional maturation

Since its launch, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have accumulated over $135 billion in assets under management, with cumulative net inflows of around $60.5 billion. BlackRock’s IBIT alone approaches $100 billion in AUM and holds over 750,000 BTC, more than Strategy or any single entity.

These products fundamentally altered Bitcoin’s liquidity profile, as net outflows create mechanical sell pressure by authorized participants redeeming shares and returning Bitcoin to the market.

Conversely, net inflows generate mechanical buy demand that can dwarf daily issuance. The 2025 bond shocks and rate swings were reflected directly in ETF flows: during stress windows, several-day runs of net redemptions materialized as macro funds de-risked and retail investors cooled.

Wood’s revised target implicitly acknowledges this more mature structure. Bitcoin is no longer purely a reflexive high-beta debasement bet.

It’s an asset increasingly dominated by regulated vehicles whose flows correlate with rates, volatility, and equity risk, not just crypto narratives.

A world where Bitcoin gets absorbed into IBIT, FBTC, and ARKB and traded as macro collateral looks less explosive than Ark’s original “monetary revolution” adoption curve, especially once stablecoins capture the transactional lane.

That trims the upside tail without killing the thesis.

As a result, the $300,000 cut makes sense when you layer the structural changes. Stablecoins directly eat into the “Bitcoin as everyday money and emerging market escape hatch” segment while deepening on-chain dollar liquidity and absorbing Treasury bills.

That’s a direct hit to Ark’s earlier total addressable market assumptions.

Bond markets and term premiums raise the bar for non-yielding assets, demonstrating that not every yield spike signals an imminent collapse of the fiat system.