Spot ETF inflows and declining reserves boost Ethereum’s bullish outlook.
Jack Ma’s reported ETH reserve adds optimism to market sentiment.
$4,400 support and $4,800 resistance are key levels to watch.
Despite the current market correction, Ethereum’s technical and macro fundamentals point to a potential resurgence in the near term.
Strong institutional demand, continuous inflows into spot ETFs, and notable accumulation headlines, including the rumoured reserve by Jack Ma, have reinforced bullish sentiment among traders and analysts alike.
Institutional inflows driving momentum
US spot Ethereum ETFs have continued to attract significant attention, recording $420.90 million in inflows on October 7, marking the seventh consecutive day of positive flows.
The inflows not only bolster liquidity but also suggest growing institutional confidence, which is likely to support a medium-term recovery toward the $4,900–$5,000 range.
The sustained demand has coincided with a decrease in exchange reserves, which have fallen to a three-year low of 17.4 million ETH.
Corporate treasuries and the EIP-1559 burn mechanism are further tightening supply, creating a backdrop for potential price acceleration.
Technical patterns hint at a potential ETH price breakout
Ethereum’s price movements over the past weeks show a mix of consolidation and cautious upward pressure.
The token has been trading near $4,450, with short-term support holding around $4,400–$4,420.
Notably, there is an ascending triangle pattern forming since June, with rising support and a horizontal ceiling near $4,750–$4,800.
This formation suggests that ETH could be poised for a breakout if bulls can reclaim the $4,800 level, opening the path toward the psychological $5,000 milestone.
Despite the volatility, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently hovering around 54, indicating that the market remains balanced and ready for renewed momentum.
Jack Ma’s Ethereum reserve boosts sentiment
While details remain unverified, the news that Jack Ma is accumulating a strategic Ethereum reserve has fueled optimism, particularly in Asian markets where Ethereum (ETH) adoption and staking activity are robust.
The combination of symbolic corporate accumulation and healthy technical positioning has prompted renewed interest among retail and institutional investors.
The report adds a layer of confidence to the bullish narrative, complementing ongoing ETF inflows and decreasing exchange balances.
The key Ethereum price levels to watch
Ethereum’s recent correction from $4,800 to around $4,450 highlights that the market is still quite volatile.
The hourly chart indicates resistance near $4,600 and key support levels at $4,400–$4,420.
If ETH fails to hold the support at $4,400, further downside to $4,320 or even $4,150 could occur.
However, analysts maintain that these dips appear more like momentum resets than trend reversals, especially seeing that even Bitcoin (BTC) is witnessing a similar retest after hitting a new all-time high (ATH) above $126,000.
For Bitcoin, some economists have projected that it could hit $140,000 before the end of October, which, as is usually the case, could lift the entire crypto market sentiment, boosting Ethereum’s price outlook.
If the Ethereum price maintains above $4,400, it could allow bulls to reassert control and drive the token toward its next major targets near $4,950–$5,050.
Crypto firms offering financial products must obtain an AFSL by 30 June.
Bitcoin and NFTs are said to be excluded from the financial product category.
The Treasury has finished consultations on new crypto legislation.
Australia has tightened its regulatory framework for digital assets, introducing updated guidelines that define how crypto service providers will be classified and licensed.
The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) announced revisions to its Information Sheet 225.
Firms offering services tied to financial products will now need to apply for an Australian Financial Services License (AFSL) and join the Australian Financial Complaints Authority by June 30.
The updated document aims to streamline compliance requirements, strengthen investor protection, and bring digital asset providers under the same regulatory standards as traditional financial institutions.
This marks a significant shift in Australia’s approach to overseeing crypto-related businesses and ensuring greater market transparency.
The move aims to bring greater oversight to the rapidly evolving crypto industry while maintaining flexibility for tokens like Bitcoin, which will not be treated as financial products under the new guidance.
Bitcoin excluded, but stablecoins under scrutiny
Under the revised guidelines, ASIC clarified that cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, gaming non-fungible tokens (NFTs), and tokenised event tickets do not fall under the financial product category.
However, stablecoins, wrapped tokens, tokenised securities, and yield-bearing products like staking services and tokenised real estate will require licensing.
ASIC also confirmed in-principle regulatory relief for stablecoin and wrapped token distributors to help transition into compliance ahead of broader legislative reforms.
The updated framework outlines that services offering financial returns or lock-up periods will be classified as financial products, ensuring investors in yield-based assets are protected under existing finance laws.
Industry welcomes clarity but warns of implementation challenges
The update has been broadly welcomed across the blockchain sector for providing long-awaited clarity.
Industry groups and legal experts said the move provides visibility on ASIC’s approach to regulating the digital asset ecosystem.
However, they warned that the transition could create logistical hurdles due to limited local expertise, banking restrictions, and insurance access.
Blockchain APAC’s CEO noted that ASIC’s approach of implementing policy ahead of final legislation brings short-term certainty but also leaves room for interpretation.
These “structural bottlenecks,” including resource and compliance constraints, could shift risks from legal to operational levels if not addressed promptly.
Transition underway as crypto firms prepare for licensing
Industry players are now restructuring their operations to align with the new rules.
The Digital Economy Council of Australia called the update a significant step toward mainstream regulation but expressed concern about ASIC’s capacity to process a large volume of licensing applications in time.
The move follows the Albanese government’s proposal in March for a unified framework that places crypto exchanges under existing financial services laws.
The Treasury concluded consultations last week on draft legislation that would formalise this transition, further aligning Australia’s crypto oversight with global regulatory trends.
The update marks a turning point for Australia’s digital asset market, setting a roadmap for compliance while signalling the government’s intention to balance innovation with investor protection.
The token gained as web3 and gaming investor Animoca Brands makes a strategic investment, a move that helped AERO price extend 24-hours to over 10% and briefly surpass the $1 mark.
The Animoca Brands’ backing of Aerodrome Finance adds to the growing institutional interest in the decentralized exchange project on Base.
Animoca Brands acquires, stakes AERO
Animoca Brands announced its acquisition of AERO tokens on October 28, noting it made purchases on the open market. The company then staked all of these tokens for veAERO, demonstrating long-term commitment to Aerodrome Finance.
We’ve market acquired a position in $AERO and max-locked as $veAERO.@AerodromeFi is an innovative, next-generation AMM that has consistently captured over 50% of @base‘s DEX TVL, establishing itself as the central liquidity hub for the ecosystem.
Buying and staking AERO aligns with Animoca’s mission to generate value in open networks and support innovative protocols.
As noted in the post above, the company sees Aerodrome as a dominant player on Base. With more than 50% of the DEX total value locked (TVL) on the blockchain, Aerodrome has become the central liquidity hub for the ecosystem.
“Aerodrome is a key component in the engine behind Base’s DeFi growth and Coinbase is making it seamless for its CEX users to trade tokens which have liquidity on DEXs such as Aerodrome thus driving more value to Aerodrome voters. With sustainable tokenomics for $AERO and the team’s ability to execute, Aerodrome has proven its standing as a key player in Base infrastructure,” Animoca Brands posted on X.
The investment follows a pattern of institutional backing for Aerodrome, including previous acquisitions by entities like Coinbase Ventures and Wintermute Ventures.
Alexander Cutler, CEO of Dromos Labs and a core contributor to Aerodrome, lauded Animoca’s move. He noted that AERO’s value is accessible only through open market participation and active involvement.
Price outlook: AERO bulls eye breakout above $1
At the time of writing, AERO is up nearly 2% on the day and has extended the uptick to 10% in the past 24 hours.
Over the past week, AERO has climbed 26%. This sees it outperform the broader market gains and form an uptrend since touching lows of $0.70 on Oct. 17.
Currently, price hovers in a key range near $0.99 as bulls aim for a decisive breakout above the $1 psychological level.
If AERO strengthens above $1, it would allow bulls to target the next hurdles around $1.2 and then $1.34.
The RSI at 70 on the 4-hour chart nonetheless suggests gains will firmly push AERO into the overbought zone. However, the MACD points to strength for buyers as the signal line cuts above the zero line, suggesting bullish momentum.
Four altcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) begin trading on Oct. 28, marking the first wave of non-Bitcoin, non-Ethereum spot crypto ETFs in the US and potentially catalyzing rotation into altcoin after months of consolidation.
Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas confirmed that NYSE and Nasdaq posted listing notices for the Bitwise Solana Staking ETF. A few hours later, Bitwise confirmed that BSOL trading starts on Oct. 28.
Additionally, Grayscale’s Solana ETF will convert the following day. Balchunas stated:
“Assuming there’s not some last-minute SEC intervention, looks like this is happening.”
“Litecoin and Hedera are the next two token ETFs to go effective after Ethereum. We look forward to launching tomorrow.”
Multicoin Capital partner Kyle Samani first disclosed the launch date of the Bitwise SOL staking ETF in a now-deleted Oct. 27 post.
Reports following Samani’s publication stated that the NYSE had confirmed the Bitwise Solana Staking ETF had received trading clearance.
Infrastructure built for institutional moment
Thomas Uhm, chief commercial officer at Jito, said the approvals validate months of operational groundwork.
In a note, he stated:
“We’ve been sitting on the precipice of this moment, and I’m immensely proud we’re finally here. The approval of staked Solana ETFs is a significant step for institutional access to crypto.”
He added that this validates the infrastructure work Jito has been doing to integrate with qualified custodians, build liquidity across exchanges and OTC markets, and address regulatory, tax, and accounting issues institutions face.
Jito’s JitoSOL liquid staking token (LST) operates inside REX’s SSK product and is the only Solana LST with a full LST ETF application from VanEck.
Uhm emphasized relationship-building with authorized participants and market makers:
“We’ve built relationships with the largest authorized participants, liquidity providers, and market makers in the world. Business is about relationships, and we’ve been in the rooms that matter for ETF issuers and users to help them understand what liquid staking can do within these structures.”
The staking component differentiates Solana products from Ethereum spot ETFs, which launched in July 2024 without staking features due to regulatory concerns.
Uhm positioned the approval as a starting point rather than a conclusion, mentioning works with “tier 1” investment banks on products related to these ETFs and relationships with major hedge funds.
The Oct. 28 launches follow months of issuer applications and SEC review.
The expansion from Ethereum into other altcoins tests whether institutional demand extends beyond the two largest cryptocurrencies and whether regulated products can absorb supply without triggering the volatility that characterized previous altcoin rallies.
Bitcoin (BTC) briefly breached $116,000 for the first time in two weeks as traders positioned for a dovish Federal Reserve decision and fresh capital flowed back into digital asset products following October’s risk-off stretch.
As of press time, Bitcoin traded at $114,683.03, up 0.15% over 24 hours. The move reflects a convergence of macro tailwinds and technical dynamics that turned sentiment after mid-October weakness left the market vulnerable to short squeezes and renewed institutional demand.
Markets are pricing the Oct. 29 Fed meeting as the catalyst. Traders are betting that easier financial conditions will support risk assets.
Additionally, a softer dollar index (DXY) hovers in the high-98s, and subdued long yields near 4% on the US 10-year Treasury create the macro backdrop crypto typically needs to rally.
Lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets and ease financial conditions broadly.
Major altcoins showed mixed performance. Ethereum traded at $4,148.13, down 0.2% over 24 hours, while Solana fell 0.1% to $199.82. XRP gained 0.1% to $2.64, and BNB rose 0.5% to $1,143.17.
Cardano dropped 1.3% to $0.6725, and Dogecoin declined 1.5% to $0.2026. The divergence suggests capital concentrated in Bitcoin rather than rotating broadly across crypto markets.
The reversal follows cooler CPI data that revived institutional appetite after October saw sustained outflows. The shift explains why dip-buyers showed conviction this week, treating sub-$115,000 levels as entry points rather than resistance.
Derivatives markets amplified the move. Hundreds of millions in short liquidations hit over the weekend and early Oct. 27, per CoinGlass estimates, as bears were forced to exit positions when Bitcoin cleared key technical levels.
That squeeze dynamic magnifies spot demand and accelerates rallies once resistance breaks, creating the momentum that carried BTC toward $116,000.
Supply-side pressure eased at the margin. Mt. Gox’s trustee extended the creditor repayment deadline by one year to Oct. 31, 2026, removing near-term forced selling risk from an overhang that has weighed on sentiment for months.
The formal extension appeared in the trustee’s notice and reduces one variable that traders cited as a headwind.
Despite the recent tailwinds, two risks remain. The same ETF and fund cohort that bought this week were net sellers in mid-October, and Fed messaging can reverse risk sentiment quickly.
If rate-cut odds fade or the dollar rallies sharply, the macro tailwinds supporting Bitcoin can turn into headwinds just as quickly. This week’s Fed decision will test whether today’s positioning holds or unwinds.
World Liberty Financial (WLFI), a crypto venture affiliated with US President Donald Trump, plans to distribute 8.4 million WLFI tokens worth about $1.2 million to early participants in its USD1 stablecoin loyalty program.
The airdrop will reward users who joined the USD1 Points Program, launched two months ago to promote adoption of World Liberty’s US dollar–backed stablecoin. Participants have earned points by trading USD1 pairs on partner exchanges and maintaining balances.
“The criteria and eligibility for earning points and rewards and distribution details may vary based on each exchange’s rules,” the company said in a Wednesday post on X.
World Liberty added that the initial WLFI distribution will occur on six exchanges, including Gate.io, KuCoin, LBank, HTX Global, Flipster and MEXC, with eligibility and rewards determined by each platform.
WLFI announces airdrop to early USD1 users. Source: WLFI
World Liberty said the points initiative will expand to include new venues, decentralized finance integrations and more ways for users to earn and redeem rewards. “This is only the beginning,” the company wrote.
USD1, issued by World Liberty Financial and custodied by BitGo, ranks as the sixth-largest stablecoin globally with a market cap of $2.94 billion, according to data from CoinMarketCap.
Earlier this year, Eric Trump revealed that Abu Dhabi investment firm MGX will use USD1 to settle its $2 billion investment in Binance, marking the first institutional investment in the exchange.
WLFI is currently trading at $0.14, down 0.5% over the past 24 hours, data from CoinMarketCap shows. The token is down nearly 70% from its all-time high of $0.46 registered in September.
WLFI token down over 53% since its launch. Source: CoinMarketCap
Trump’s crypto empire nets over $1 billion in profit
Trump’s second term has coincided with a massive surge in his personal fortune, fueled largely by the family’s cryptocurrency ventures. According to a recent Financial Times investigation, Trump’s crypto empire has generated more than $1 billion in pre-tax profits over the past year.
At the center of this windfall is World Liberty Financial. Trump disclosed $57.4 million in income from the firm in June. However, the family’s stake surged to $5 billion after a recent token unlock. The FT estimated they have earned $550 million from WLFI alone this year.
The Trump family has also profited from its branded memecoins, Official Trump (TRUMP) and Official Melania Meme (MELANIA), earning about $427 million combined. Additionally, their USD1 stablecoin has brought in $42 million in profit since April.
Bitplanet bought 93 BTC in Korea’s first regulated corporate purchase.
The firm plans daily Bitcoin buys to reach a 10,000 BTC treasury.
Backed by major investors, Bitplanet leads Korea’s Bitcoin adoption.
Bitplanet has made history in South Korea’s financial landscape by becoming the nation’s first publicly traded company to purchase Bitcoin (BTC) through a regulated domestic exchange.
The KOSDAQ-listed technology firm recently acquired 92.67 BTC — worth approximately $10.9 million — marking a new chapter in the country’s corporate embrace of digital assets.
Korea’s first regulated corporate Bitcoin buy
The BTC acquisition positions Bitplanet as a pioneer in compliant Bitcoin adoption within Asia’s evolving financial ecosystem.
For the past month, @Bitplanet_KR has been quietly building the most reliable and compliant Bitcoin treasury infrastructure in Korea — culminating in becoming the first public company to purchase Bitcoin directly through a licensed domestic crypto exchange. As of October 26,… pic.twitter.com/hEmpvh9fUL
It is the first time a listed company has acquired Bitcoin through a licensed exchange within the country’s regulated financial infrastructure.
Executed entirely under the supervision of South Korea’s Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU), the transaction signals growing confidence among institutional investors that Bitcoin can serve as a legitimate, strategic treasury asset.
The Seoul-based company described the move as a deliberate, rules-based initiative rather than a speculative trade.
Co-CEO Paul Lee explained that the purchase marks the start of a disciplined, long-term accumulation plan designed to reduce timing risks while positioning Bitcoin as a strategic treasury reserve.
The transaction was executed fully in compliance with domestic financial laws, a milestone that could encourage other listed companies to follow suit.
Notably, the timing of Bitplanet’s move coincided with a strong rally in Bitcoin prices, which recently climbed above $115,000 amid optimism about US Federal Reserve rate cuts and increasing exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows.
By choosing this moment to make its first acquisition, Bitplanet demonstrated not only market awareness but also confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term role as a corporate asset.
From its IT roots to a Bitcoin treasury company
Founded in 1997 as SGA Co., Ltd., Bitplanet has deep roots in IT, cybersecurity, and education technology services.
The company rebranded in September 2025 to reflect a broader shift toward blockchain and Bitcoin-focused ventures.
Its pivot follows the full $50 million acquisition of SGA earlier in the year and the completion of a $40 million fundraising round to support its new treasury strategy.
This strategic transformation underscores Bitplanet’s vision of becoming South Korea’s first institutional-grade Bitcoin treasury company.
The firm has developed a comprehensive infrastructure for compliant digital asset management, including regulated custody solutions, secure storage, and real-time audit systems that meet government and financial oversight standards.
Bitplanet’s management says it intends to accumulate Bitcoin daily through licensed domestic exchanges, aiming to build a reserve of up to 10,000 BTC over time.
This steady, methodical approach minimises exposure to market volatility and mirrors similar strategies employed by firms such as Japan’s Metaplanet, one of Bitplanet’s key backers.
Backed by global Bitcoin advocates
Bitplanet’s Bitcoin strategy is supported by a global network of digital asset investors.
The firm’s backers include Simon Gerovich of Metaplanet, AsiaStrategy, Sora Ventures, UTXO Management, KCGI, Kingsway Capital, and ParaFi Capital — groups known for advancing institutional Bitcoin adoption worldwide.
Their involvement signals strong confidence in Bitplanet’s compliance-focused model and its potential to establish a new standard for Bitcoin treasury management in Asia.
Industry observers believe the company’s regulated approach could pave the way for broader corporate participation in South Korea’s growing digital asset market.
The BTC purchase also aligns with the country’s forthcoming Digital Asset Basic Act, scheduled to take effect by 2027, which will formalise the rules for cryptocurrency custody and corporate holdings.
By moving early, Bitplanet positions itself to benefit from the regulatory clarity that this law is expected to bring.
Brevis will develop a trustless rebate system for routers that integrate v4 hooked pools.
The initiative will verify rebates automatically without centralized supervision.
The program aims to supercharge Uniswap v4 adoption by rewarding aggregators.
The Uniswap Foundation has awarded blockchain infrastructure company Brevis a significant grant in efforts to fuel the adoption of its recent upgrade, Uniswap 4.
According to today’s official blog, the foundation plans to allocate up to $9 million to launch and manage an innovative Hooks Routing Rebate program.
The new initiative offers gas rebates to routers that have integrated v4’s hooked pool.
Notably, the grant aims to hasten Uniswap’s version 4 adoption.
To accelerate v4 hook adoption and make aggregator integration more rewarding, Uniswap has awarded a grant to Brevis to leverage its ZK Data Coprocessor and zkVM to deliver trustless gas rebates to any routers that route order flow through v4 hooked pools.
🚀 @UniswapFND has awarded Brevis a grant to build a trustless gas rebate program for v4 routers!
Up to $9M in rebates for DEX aggregators integrating v4 hooked pools. All calculations verified by Brevis ZK proofs.
The decentralized trading protocol released its V4 update early this year, introducing advanced features like hooks – which are modules that developers can use to personalize liquidity pools.
Moreover, V4 launched a singleton infrastructure that merges pools under a single contract.
These upgrades introduced friendly fees, on-chain automation, and enhanced experience for decentralized application (dApp) developers.
Furthermore, v4 promised traders reduced slippage, lowered fees, and more efficient trade execution.
Beyond customizability, Uniswap v4 provides gas savings for both swappers and LPs. Creating new pools with v4 is up to 99.99% cheaper than in previous versions, and swappers can expect gas savings on multi-hop swaps.
Rewarding aggregators after resource-intensive tasks
Besides introducing new advancements, the upgrade brought new challenges for decentralized aggregators like Velora, 1inch, and 0X.
Decentralized aggregators are platforms that find the top trade routes by combining liquidity across different DEXs.
Previous versions had easier integrations.
For instance, Uniswap v2 adopted a constant-product approach, whereas version 3 amplified complexity through concentrated liquidity and fee tiers.
Nonetheless, v3 still ensures a consistent model.
Meanwhile, the much-awaited Uniswap version 4 allowed each pool to function independently based on the hooks it utilizes.
With that, hooks could introduce new execution ideas, apply special trading conditions, and adjust fees.
That offers the flexibility that boosts integration.
However, it made everything demanding and complex, as aggregators should familiarize themselves with how every personalized pool functions before using it to route trades.
That’s where the new rebate program by the Uniswap Foundation comes in.
The initiative allows the interoperable protocol to incentivize routers that integrate hooked pools successfully, offering up to $9 million in gas rebates.
Users will receive the rewards automatically according to their routing activity.
Meanwhile, these rebates can lower trading fees, fund ecosystem developments, and offset gas expenses.
The team said:
These rebates provide routers new economic relief to experiment with v4 hooks. Whether routers use them to offset their own operating costs, pass rebates back to traders as lower fees, or build sustainable treasuries, the result is the same: faster integrations, deeper liquidity, and better swap execution with reduced fees for users.
Uniswap’s native token, UNI, trades at $6.24 after an over 1% increase in the past 24 hours.
Bitcoin breached $116,000 for the first time in two weeks, and the usual narrative surfaced: inflation hedge.
But the data tells a different story. This cycle, Bitcoin trades less like a consumer-price shield and more like a real-time barometer of dollar liquidity and discount rates.
The question isn’t whether Bitcoin hedges inflation, but whether a weaker dollar and falling real yields drive it now.
BTC ≠ CPI hedge anymore?
The inflation-hedge thesis isn’t wrong, just mistimed. Data suggests that Bitcoin rallied amid liquidity shifts and monetary pivots, not because the Bureau of Labor Statistics printed 3.1% instead of 3%.
CPI measures price levels with a lag. Bitcoin trades forward-looking liquidity and discount rates in real time.
Across this cycle, the relationship between Bitcoin and headline inflation weakened while correlations with the dollar index and real yields tightened.
A snapshot of directional relationships reveals the shift:
Pair
Typical Sign
Stability
What It Reflects
BTC × CPI (m/m or y/y)
Near zero, unstable
Weak, flips frequently
Prints are lagged; policy reaction moves BTC, not the CPI print itself
BTC × DXY (log returns)
Inverse
Strengthens in dollar downtrends
Global dollar liquidity channel and cross-border risk appetite
BTC × 10y real yield (DFII10, Δ)
Inverse
Time-varying by regime
Higher real rates tighten conditions; lower real rates ease financial plumbing
Current 30-day Pearson correlations show Bitcoin/DXY at approximately -0.45 and Bitcoin/DFII10 near -0.38, while Bitcoin/CPI hovers around zero with frequent sign changes.
The 90-day window smooths noise but confirms the pattern: Bitcoin responds to the Fed’s reaction function and dollar liquidity conditions, not the inflation print itself.
Why USD strength and real yields transmit into BTC
Real yields represent the market’s price of money after inflation. When the 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities yield rises, the dollar typically firms, global financial conditions tighten, and long-duration risk assets de-rate.
Bitcoin’s funding costs compress, basis trades narrow, and marginal buyers retreat. Conversely, when real yields roll over, the dollar softens, cross-border US dollar scarcity eases, and crypto risk premia shrink.
The same plumbing shows up in stablecoin funding rates, market-maker inventories, and the basis between spot, futures, and perpetual swaps.
The transmission runs through portfolio allocation decisions at scale. Institutional desks adjust risk exposure based on the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.
When real yields climb, cash and short-term Treasuries compete directly with Bitcoin. When real yields decline, competition weakens, and capital rotates into growth and speculative allocations.
Real-yield change (bps)
Exp. BTC return (%)
Indicative BTC (mid)
Lower band (±1σ)
Upper band (±1σ)
−25
1.42
$231,263
$217,731
$244,795
−50
1.35
$231,096
$217,564
$244,628
−75
1.28
$230,928
$217,396
$244,460
Additionally, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) flows act as an amplifier.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs turned macro signals into immediate on-chain demand. Creations pull authorized participants to source coins in size through institutional desks and OTC brokers, while redemptions push inventory back into the market.
That flow is contemporaneous with macro impulses: a softer dollar and lower real yields usually coincide with easier risk conditions, making creations more likely and redemptions rarer.
Flows don’t cause the macro backdrop, they magnify it. A 25-basis-point drop in DFII10, paired with a 2% decline in DXY, can trigger the creation of baskets worth hundreds of millions as portfolio managers rebalance.
The opposite dynamic, consisting of rising reals and a firming dollar, drains liquidity through redemptions and forces spot selling.
ETFs converted what used to be a slow, over-the-counter process into a same-day feedback loop between traditional finance investors positioning and crypto spot markets.
Bitcoin price and spot ETF net flows showed strong correlation through 2024-2025, with major inflows coinciding with price rallies above $200,000 in early and late 2025.
What flipped when
Three standard flip zones define regime changes. First, risk-off dollar surges when everything sells together. Bitcoin’s inverse relationship with DXY weakens toward zero as correlations collapse into a flight-to-safety bid for the US dollar.
Second, early easing phases as markets price lower real rates and Fed cuts, and the inverse relationship strengthens, raising Bitcoin’s macro beta role.
Third, policy-messaging whipsaws. Around FOMC meetings or CPI beats that shift rate-cut odds, rolling correlations can lurch for weeks before settling into a new regime.
The most recent inflection occurred in mid-October, when real yields spiked amid stubborn core inflation data and the DXY rallied through key resistance.
Bitcoin’s 30-day correlation with DXY flipped from -0.50 to near zero as both sold off together. By late October, softer payrolls and renewed dovish Fed messaging reversed the move, real yields declined 15 basis points, DXY retreated, and the inverse correlation re-established at -0.45.
That two-week window shows causality running through policy expectations, not inflation prints.
Relating ETFs to USD and real yields
Weekly spot ETF net flows track dollar and real-yield movements with minimal lag. Weeks with extreme creations of over $500 million typically coincide with DXY falling and DFII10 easing.
A simple contemporaneous regression confirms the relationship. Bitcoin weekly returns regress positively on ETF net flows and negatively on changes in DXY and DFII10.
The adjusted R² hovers near 0.35, indicating that roughly one-third of Bitcoin’s weekly variance is directly tied to those three variables.
Coefficients drift by regime. During Fed easing cycles, the DXY beta strengthens as dollar weakness signals easier global liquidity.
During tightening phases, the real-yield beta dominates as the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin rises. Re-estimating the regression each quarter captures those shifts and keeps the model aligned with current macro conditions.
CoinShares reported $921 million of net inflows into digital asset products for the latest week, led by US vehicles, following cooler CPI data.
That reversed mid-October’s risk-off stretch when redemptions hit $400 million as DXY rallied and real yields climbed.
The swing illustrates how quickly flows respond to macro pivots and why watching the dollar and real yields provides earlier signals than waiting for fund-flow announcements.
Scenarios into 2026 and what to expect
The base case is that real yields slip by 25 to 50 basis points on softening growth and steady inflation, while the DXY drifts lower.
That translates into modestly positive Bitcoin carry, with wider-than-usual confidence bands due to elevated volatility around year-end tax considerations and ETF rebalancing.
Path dependence on weekly flows matters, as sustained creations push the range higher, while stalled flows keep Bitcoin rangebound.
The upside scenario is a faster policy pivot or growth scare drives real yields down more quickly, DXY breaks trend support, and ETF creations re-accelerate past $1 billion weekly.
Bitcoin’s beta to macro rises, spot momentum extends, and the market reprices higher targets as financial conditions ease aggressively.
Conversely, a downside scenario: real yields stay sticky or rise on stubborn core inflation, the dollar catches a safe-haven bid, and ETF flows stall or flip negative. Range support breaks lower, volatility picks up, and Bitcoin’s correlation structure collapses as risk-off dominates.
A signal to watch out for is real yields holding above 2% and DXY reclaiming its 200-day moving average as warning signs.
Additionally, three dials are worth tracking. First, the DXY trend: monitoring the 20-day and 50-day moving averages and the distance to the 200-day moving average. A breakdown below 98 with momentum confirms the dollar-weakness trade remains intact.
Second, DFII10 level and 30-day change: a decline below 1.8% signals easing conditions; a spike above 2.2% tightens the screws.
Third, daily or weekly spot-ETF net flows: sustained creations above $300 million daily suggest institutional conviction; redemptions signal macro headwinds.
These dials work with a dated event calendar. The next FOMC decision on Dec. 18, CPI print on Dec. 11, payrolls on Dec. 6, and any large Treasury refunding or auction clusters that can move real yields intraday.
Does a weaker dollar drive Bitcoin now? This cycle, yes. But through the real-yield channel and amplified by ETF flows, not through the inflation-hedge narrative.
Bitcoin trades more like a dollar and real-yield beta than a CPI hedge. Data suggests that it is wise to keep focus on those three dials and treat correlation as a regime-switcher, not a constant.
When the dollar softens and real yields decline, Bitcoin typically rallies. When the opposite occurs, risk compresses and spot demand evaporates.
That’s a potential playbook for positioning into next year’s first quarter.
Linea token LINEA has jumped by over 14% to reach highs of $0.029 amid major SWIFT news.
Reports say SWIFT and bank partners including PNB Paribas and BNY are set to test blockchain messaging system.
SWIFT has selected Linea for the pilot.
LINEA, the native token of the Ethereum Layer 2 network Linea, has surged by 14% in the past 24 hours, with a sharp spike coming on the back of a major SWIFT announcement.
The token reached intraday highs of $0.029 as news emerged that the interbank messaging platform has selected Linea for testing its system on the blockchain. Gains saw LINEA outpace many altcoins that struggled amid broader crypto price turmoil.
SWIFT to test messaging system on Linea blockchain
SWIFT, the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication, which facilitates secure messaging for over 11,000 financial institutions across more than 200 countries, is embarking on a transformative experiment.
According to exclusive insights from The Big Whale, SWIFT has partnered with Consensys-developed Linea, an Ethereum Layer 2 solution, to explore migrating its core messaging system onto the blockchain.
Gregory Raymond, co-founder of The Big Whale, shared the news on X.
The collaboration will also involve global banking giants, with over 10 banks including BNP Paribas and BNY.
SWIFT is also set to team up with over a dozen institutions on the project, said The Big Whale, with many of these already engaged in the initiative’s proof-of-concept phase.
According to a well-placed source, the project, though still in development, could herald a significant technological overhaul of the international interbank payments industry.
Why the layer 2 blockchain Linea?
Linea’s appeal lies in its emphasis on privacy, enabled by advanced cryptographic proofs.
The banks see this as aligning with the regulatory and security demands of the banking sector.
Linea offers an enterprise-grade infrastructure platform for global finance.
Per details on its website, the network already supports financial institutions like Mastercard, Visa and JP Morgan.
The Consensys-backed platform is designed for blockchain solutions, including tokenization, trading, payments, and onchain settlement.
It allows for integration with decentralized finance protocols, custodians, and real-world asset tokenization platforms.
LINEA price spikes amid news
SWIFT’s plans and The Big Whale’s report on the development triggered a notable market reaction from the LINEA community.
