Bitcoin (BTC) miners have raised $11 billion in convertible debt — corporate debt that is convertible to stocks — over the last year, amid a pivot into artificial intelligence data centers.
The average convertible bond issue more than doubled, with mining companies MARA, Cipher Mining, IREN and TeraWulf each raising $1 billion through single bond issues. Some offerings have featured coupons as low as 0%, signaling investors’ willingness to waive interest payments in exchange for potential equity upside.
Convertible bond deals from July 2024 to October 2025. Source: TheMinerMag
In contrast, most convertible bonds issued by Bitcoin miners the preceding year ranged from $200 million to $400 million.
The mining industry diversified into AI data centers to address revenue shortfalls following the April 2024 halving. Miners continue to struggle with a challenging business model, which is affected by tokenomics, trade policies, supply chain issues, and rising energy costs.
However, VanEck analysts Nathan Frankovitz and Matthew Sigel noted that these debt levels reflect a fundamental problem in the mining industry — heavy capital expenditures on mining hardware that must be upgraded annually in some cases.
“Historically, miners relied on equity markets, not debt, to fund these steep capex costs,” they wrote, and called the significant hardware costs to remain competitive a “melting ice cube.”
Bitcoin’s network hashrate continues to rise.
The rising Bitcoin mining hashrate, the total amount of computing power securing the Bitcoin network, also continues to rise, forcing miners to expend ever-greater computing and energy resources as time goes on.
In October, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright proposed a regulatory change to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) that would allow data centers and miners to connect directly to energy grids.
This would allow these energy-intensive applications to satisfy their energy needs while they act as controllable load resources for the energy grid, balancing and stabilizing the electrical infrastructure during times of peak demand and curtailing excess energy during low demand.
The Financial Services Authority is enforcing AML compliance for stablecoin traders.
Indonesia ranks seventh in the 2025 Global Crypto Adoption Index.
The government is exploring Bitcoin as a potential reserve asset.
Bank Indonesia (BI) is advancing plans to introduce a blockchain-based financial instrument described as the country’s “national stablecoin version,” a digital currency backed by government bonds.
The initiative was unveiled by BI Governor Perry Warjiyo at the Indonesia Digital Finance and Economy Festival and Fintech Summit 2025 in Jakarta.
It reflects Indonesia’s effort to integrate blockchain technology into its monetary system through tokenised securities tied to the digital rupiah. The announcement was first reported by CNBC Indonesia.
The central bank said the new digital assets will take the form of tokenised government securities backed by the central bank’s planned digital rupiah, Indonesia’s central bank digital currency (CBDC).
The project is designed to blend monetary innovation with national financial stability, positioning Indonesia among a handful of emerging economies developing bond-backed digital assets.
Digital rupiah to underpin Indonesia’s national stablecoin
According to Warjiyo, the bank will issue digital versions of its securities, referred to as Bank Indonesia securities in digital form, which will operate as blockchain-based representations of sovereign bond holdings.
These digital securities will be backed by the digital rupiah, making them the foundation of what the central bank describes as Indonesia’s national stablecoin.
He explained that the stablecoin structure would rely on government bonds, or Surat Berharga Negara (SBN), as its underlying collateral, ensuring that its value remains tied to official assets rather than speculative cryptocurrencies.
The initiative marks a step towards tokenising the country’s debt market, creating an ecosystem where digital securities, stablecoins, and the central bank digital currency coexist.
Warjiyo said the plan reflects BI’s broader digital finance strategy aimed at improving transparency, efficiency, and liquidity across financial markets.
If successful, it could reshape how monetary authorities interact with blockchain infrastructure in Southeast Asia.
Blockchain integration into Indonesia’s monetary system
The introduction of the bond-backed digital rupiah is expected to strengthen Indonesia’s transition towards a blockchain-integrated economy.
While stablecoins are not currently recognised as legal tender, their use in payments and remittances has increased, prompting regulatory attention from Indonesia’s Financial Services Authority, known as the OJK.
Dino Milano Siregar, who leads the OJK’s crypto and digital asset division, said the agency enforces anti-money laundering (AML) compliance and requires periodic reporting from stablecoin traders.
The OJK’s supervision reflects growing awareness of the potential systemic role of digital assets, even without formal recognition as payment instruments.
Siregar added that stablecoins are already being used as hedging tools, especially those backed by credible assets such as government bonds or reserve currencies.
Their comparatively lower volatility makes them appealing for remittance transactions and cross-border settlements.
This practical use case aligns with BI’s ambition to institutionalise a regulated form of stable value exchange through the digital rupiah.
Indonesia among global leaders in crypto adoption
Indonesia’s rapid shift towards digital finance is underpinned by strong adoption trends. The country ranks seventh in the 2025 Global Crypto Adoption Index published by Chainalysis.
It placed ninth in retail activity, seventh in value received through centralised exchanges, and fourth in decentralised finance (DeFi) transactions.
These figures highlight Indonesia’s growing role in global digital asset markets.
In August, local advocacy group Bitcoin Indonesia reported that government officials were exploring Bitcoin as a potential reserve asset, with discussions centred on how such holdings could diversify national reserves and stimulate economic growth.
If Indonesia proceeds with its stablecoin framework alongside its digital rupiah and potential Bitcoin reserve diversification, it could emerge as a major blockchain hub in Asia.
The combination of regulatory oversight, tokenised government debt, and CBDC integration places Indonesia among countries like China and Singapore that are redefining the future of sovereign-backed digital assets.
The United Kingdom has opened the floodgates for crypto exchange-traded notes (ETNs) to retail investors — a market that was previously limited to professional traders — sparking a price war among issuers vying for market share, according to the Financial Times.
In a report published on Thursday, the FT said several Bitcoin ETN issuers have slashed their fees to as low as 0.05%, describing the resulting competition as a “cut-throat battle” for investors. Meanwhile, other crypto-linked ETNs continue to charge annual fees of up to 2.5%.
The fee war follows the Financial Conduct Authority’s (FCA) decision to lift its 2021 ban on retail access to crypto-linked funds, a change that took effect on Oct. 8.
At the time of the policy reversal, Ian Taylor, board adviser at trade association CryptoUK, told Cointelegraph: “We are delighted to see this reversal,” highlighting the “progress we’ve made toward introducing a more proportionate approach to consumer risk.”
The Financial Conduct Authority’s roadmap for digital asset regulations. Source: FCA
Among the newly accessible ETNs are 21Shares’ Core Bitcoin and Ethereum Core Staking ETPs, which have had their fees reduced to 0.1%; Fidelity’s Physical Bitcoin ETP, now charging 0.25%; and CoinShares’ Physical Staked Ethereum ETP, which currently carries no management fee.
The FCA rule change also forms part of a broader effort to revive the United Kingdom’s waning position in global crypto adoption.
One of the key flashpoints has been the treatment of stablecoins after industry participants pushed back against the Bank of England’s (BoE) proposals to impose strict corporate holding limits.
According to Bloomberg, the BoE is now considering softening its stance amid growing concern that the United States is pulling ahead following the passage of the GENIUS Act, which aims to provide clearer rules for stablecoin issuers.
BoE Governor Andrew Bailey has also moderated his tone in recent months, stepping back from earlier warnings that private stablecoins could pose a threat to financial stability. Instead, he has acknowledged the technology’s potential for innovation and its growing role within the financial system.
Flutterwave has partnered with Polygon to enable fast, low-cost stablecoin payments.
Pilot is scheduled to start before the end of 2025, expanding to consumers via the Send App in 2026.
Verified merchants will benefit first, ensuring compliance and smooth adoption.
Flutterwave, one of Africa’s largest financial infrastructure providers, has announced a partnership with Polygon Labs to leverage blockchain technology for cross-border payments.
Fresh off the thrill of @money2020, we’re teaming up with @0xPolygon to make cross-border payments faster, cheaper & more accessible than ever!
With Polygon Proof of Stake (PoS) powering our new solution, businesses and individuals will soon be able to move money across borders… pic.twitter.com/7vmr88zy8e
Under the multi-year collaboration, Polygon will become Flutterwave’s default blockchain network, powering a new cross-border payments product designed around stablecoins.
These digital currencies, pegged to traditional fiat currencies like the US dollar, are expected to streamline international payments by reducing the inefficiencies that have long plagued Africa’s $2 trillion cross-border market.
For many businesses, settlement can take several days, and fees often exceed 8%, creating significant operational challenges.
Flutterwave plans to pilot the new system in 2025 with a select group of verified merchants, before rolling it out more broadly to enterprises and consumers through its Send App in 2026.
The initial rollout will prioritise global corporations such as Uber and Audiomack, which already rely on Flutterwave’s existing payment infrastructure, while subsequent phases aim to bring the benefits of blockchain-powered stablecoins to millions of everyday users.
The partnership also positions Africa alongside other regions where Polygon is already enabling major fintech innovations, including Europe and Asia.
With over a hundred fintech companies globally using Polygon to move money efficiently, Flutterwave’s adoption of the network demonstrates the continent’s growing embrace of blockchain technology for real-world commerce.
For Flutterwave, this initiative represents more than a technological upgrade; it aligns with the company’s broader mission to simplify international payments for African businesses.
CEO Olugbenga “GB” Agboola explained that by making cross-border transactions faster, cheaper, and more accessible, the collaboration sets a new standard for financial inclusion while providing a scalable solution for global commerce.
Faster, cheaper cross-border payments
By integrating Polygon’s high-performance blockchain, Flutterwave aims to cut both costs and settlement times dramatically.
Transaction fees on Polygon are typically fractions of a cent, and settlements can occur in near real-time.
Marc Boiron, CEO of Polygon Labs, highlighted the significance of this development, noting that stablecoins on Polygon can transform settlement periods from days into seconds and reduce fees from percentages into mere pennies.
This partnership not only reduces operational friction but also strengthens financial inclusion by making cross-border payments affordable and reliable.
For small merchants in Lagos, Nairobi, or Johannesburg, as well as individuals sending remittances, the technology promises to make previously cumbersome financial processes simpler and faster.
Regulatory compliance
Flutterwave is taking a cautious approach to regulatory compliance, initially limiting the stablecoin service to verified merchants who meet enhanced Know Your Customer (KYC) and Know Your Business (KYB) standards.
Vincent Yang, Flutterwave’s Senior Product Manager for Stablecoins and Cryptocurrency, emphasised that the company is working closely with regulators to ensure that the service launches only in markets with appropriate regulatory support.
The integration is designed to be seamless for merchants, requiring no technical changes to Flutterwave’s existing API.
This approach allows businesses to access the new payment options without disruption, embedding blockchain capabilities into familiar systems rather than replacing them entirely.
Lawmakers previously proposed a $19 billion Bitcoin reserve.
Countries like Germany, Pakistan, and the Philippines are reviewing similar plans.
Brazil’s Drex CBDC could support future digital reserve systems.
Brazil’s central bank is preparing to host one of Latin America’s most closely watched financial events next month, as global reserve managers gather in Rio de Janeiro for the Central Banking Autumn Meetings.
Among the top items on the agenda is the growing debate over whether Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies could play a role in national reserves.
The meetings, as reported by local media, will bring together central bankers and policymakers from across the region to discuss new approaches to financial resilience, digital innovation, and inflation management.
Brazil’s participation marks a critical step in positioning the country at the centre of the region’s emerging digital asset strategy.
Brazil’s growing focus on Bitcoin as a reserve asset
At the Rio meetings, Brazil’s representatives will join officials from Colombia, Jamaica, and the Bahamas to discuss how Bitcoin could be integrated into sovereign reserves.
The discussions will cover issues such as volatility, liquidity, and the potential of Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation.
This focus comes as Brazil’s lawmakers continue to evaluate a proposal to create a $19 billion sovereign Bitcoin reserve.
The plan, which was previously discussed in parliamentary hearings, seeks to position Bitcoin as both a strategic financial asset and a tool to diversify the country’s holdings.
During earlier sessions, policymakers heard from technical experts in the digital asset sector on how Bitcoin could serve as a reserve asset alongside gold and foreign currencies.
By taking these discussions to an international policy forum, Brazil is signalling that the question of Bitcoin reserves is no longer limited to domestic politics but is becoming a subject of regional collaboration.
Global momentum behind national Bitcoin reserves
Brazil’s renewed interest in digital reserves comes amid a wider global shift toward rethinking reserve composition.
In the United States, officials have begun evaluating a proposal to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve that could act as a safeguard against economic shocks.
Although the plan is still in early stages, it has drawn significant international attention, prompting other economies to assess similar measures.
In Europe, Germany’s second-largest political party recently submitted a motion calling for the creation of a national Bitcoin reserve.
The proposal urged the government to consider Bitcoin as a protection against inflation and currency depreciation, reflecting growing institutional acceptance of digital assets within traditional finance.
Elsewhere, countries such as the Philippines and Pakistan have also initiated reviews of policy drafts that would allow Bitcoin to be recognised as a strategic asset.
While most central banks do not yet hold cryptocurrencies in their reserves, the shift in dialogue from speculation to formal policy review suggests the idea is becoming increasingly mainstream.
Infrastructure and policy implications for Brazil
Brazil’s exploration of Bitcoin reserves is likely to overlap with its ongoing work on the Drex, the country’s central bank digital currency.
The Drex project aims to create a tokenised version of the Brazilian real that could facilitate interoperability between fiat and blockchain-based systems.
Experts believe that the infrastructure developed for Drex could eventually provide the technical foundation needed for managing reserve assets in digital form.
However, central banks worldwide still face challenges in safely storing, auditing, and reporting digital reserves. Market volatility and accounting standards remain major considerations.
For Brazil, next month’s meetings could help shape a roadmap for addressing these operational hurdles through regional cooperation.
A strategic moment for Latin America’s financial policy
The upcoming Rio meetings could mark a turning point for how Latin American economies view digital reserves.
With inflation pressures and currency volatility continuing to shape monetary policy, Bitcoin’s inclusion in sovereign strategies may no longer be a distant possibility.
Although no immediate policy shift is expected, Brazil’s leadership in hosting these discussions places it at the forefront of digital finance policymaking in the region.
The outcomes could determine how quickly central banks move from debate to implementation, setting the stage for future integration of Bitcoin into the global reserve system.
China has again made its position on stablecoins unmistakably clear.
At a recent financial policy forum, Pan Gongsheng, governor of the People’s Bank of China (PBoC), described stablecoins as a “new source of vulnerabilities” within the global financial system. He warned that they could undermine smaller economies’ monetary sovereignty and enable illicit financial flows.
According to him, these assets “amplify loopholes in global financial regulation, such as money laundering, illegal cross-border fund transfers, and terrorist financing.” He also stressed that most stablecoin projects fail to meet basic compliance standards such as customer identification and anti-money-laundering checks.
His remarks reaffirm China’s decade-long stance: private digital currencies and stablecoins remain off-limits, even as Beijing continues to advance its digital yuan (e-CNY) as a state-controlled alternative.
Yet as the rest of the world accelerates toward tokenized finance, China’s absence raises the pressing question of whether stablecoins can truly thrive without the world’s largest fintech economy.
A global market moving without Beijing
For now, the answer appears to be yes.
While China doubles down on restrictions, global stablecoin adoption has surged. According to DeFiLlama data, the sector’s total capitalization recently crossed $308 billion, expanding by nearly $100 billion since January.
At the same time, a report from A16z shows that the sector’s transaction volumes surpassed $46 trillion over the past year, rivaling established payment giants such as Visa when adjusted for legitimate activity.
Stablecoins Volume (Source: A16z)
Chris Dixon, a partner at venture capital firm A16z, said:
“Stablecoins have gone mainstream. [They] have found product-market fit, rivaling the world’s largest payment networks in transaction volume.”
This milestone is unsurprising considering that governments across Asia, which once echoed Beijing’s caution, are moving in the opposite direction.
Japan has legalized fiat-backed stablecoins this year, with fintech firm JPYC Inc. launching the first fully compliant yen-denominated token on Ethereum, Avalanche, and Polygon.
Moreover, other leading jurisdictions, including South Korea, Hong Kong, and Singapore, are preparing similar frameworks to license issuers and protect consumers.
These moves are transforming stablecoins from speculative tools into regulated infrastructure for payments, remittances, and on-chain treasury management.
That momentum suggests the market can function and flourish without China’s participation because the technology has matured beyond its early crypto-native roots.
Essentially, stablecoins now act as the core liquidity layer of decentralized finance and the backbone of on-chain commerce, enabling instant settlement across thousands of platforms.
Thriving without China: But not entirely free from it
Yet even as the industry expands, China’s influence lingers.
The Asian country’s market size, cross-border trade capacity, and digital-payment infrastructure remain unmatched. Platforms such as Alipay and WeChat Pay process more transactions annually than many entire regions combined. Excluding that ecosystem limits stablecoins’ reach and potential scale.
In practice, the ban has not erased stablecoin activity in China. Instead, it has merely pushed it underground.
Chinese investors and businesses still use dollar-pegged tokens like USDT through offshore exchanges and private OTC desks to move funds internationally or hedge against yuan volatility.
Despite official restrictions, stablecoins remain a quiet instrument of capital mobility within Chinese networks.
This underground usage illustrates how the thriving sector could benefit from China’s eventual inclusion in the technology.
A fully integrated Chinese presence, whether through regulated participation or interoperability between the e-CNY and compliant stablecoins, would link the world’s largest trade economy to blockchain-based payments. This would undoubtedly complete the network effect that stablecoins currently lack.
For now, however, two parallel systems are emerging: an open, market-driven ecosystem led by dollar-backed tokens, and a closed, sovereign digital-currency model built around the e-CNY.
A necessary absence?
China’s decision to stand apart may, paradoxically, strengthen the case for decentralized finance and stablecoins.
By refusing to integrate, Beijing is forcing the rest of the world to build independently. As a result, this process has already created a more diversified, regulation-aware, and institutionally supported market.
Stablecoins have become indispensable to global liquidity, powering decentralized exchanges, tokenized bond markets, and US Treasury instruments. Their growth has continued despite regulatory uncertainty, cyberattacks, and central-bank skepticism.
So, each expansion reinforces their staying power and proves that the concept of a borderless digital dollar can survive without China’s approval.
Still, the long-term picture remains nuanced.
Without China, stablecoins lose access to one of the largest pools of fintech innovation and global trade settlement. With it, they could achieve true interoperability between Western and Eastern payment systems.
For now, the market is proving that thriving without China is possible.
However, thriving globally may be much more difficult because the absence of the world’s most significant digital economy limits scale.
Yet the quiet participation of Chinese investors shows that even a strict policy can’t suppress the appeal of programmable money.
The whitepaper announces the world’s first AI-backed RWA marketplace.
It launches on BNB Chain, welcoming participation from AI developers and GPU owners.
AVL gains over 15% on the daily timeframe before cooling.
Amid broader weakness, Avalon Labs fueled optimism through the blockchain industry after releasing its highly anticipated whitepaper.
The document highlights the firm’s mission for launching the world’s first AI-driven RWA marketplace, alongside an AI-MaaS (AI-Model-as-a-Service) platform, which merges blockchain with artificial intelligence.
Today, we’re excited to announce the official release of our Whitepaper for the industry’s first on chain AI-backed RWA marketplace and AI-Model-as-a-Service (AI-MaaS). The exclusive initial launch on @BNBCHAIN!
The new project will debut exclusively on BNB Chain, a move that could welcome lucrative opportunities for GPU owners and AI developers.
The move heralds the next stage of RWA tokenisation’s evolution – powered by innovations beyond blockchain, including self-learning AI programs and intelligent.
According to the announcement:
This marketplace is open to all GPU hardware owners and AI model developers. Our first launch will feature a Reinforcement Learning Model (RL Model) deployed by Avalon abs in collaboration with our AI partner, powered by H200 GPU hardware as the foundation.
Avalon Labs’ alt saw a sharp uptick following the whitepaper release.
AVL soared from the daily low of $0.1436 to $0.1668 – a 16% increase.
However, the digital token has retraced as hype fades and bearish broader sentiments.
Meanwhile, Avalon Labs plans to create a platform that supports artificial intelligence innovation.
The project aims to provide contributors and developers a fair environment to engage in the AI economy.
Avalon to tokenise commercial rights
Beyond the AI-driven marketplace, Avalon Labs also introduced the CRT (Commercial Rights Tokenization) standard.
The concept introduces a new framework for tokenizing commercial rights linked to goods, services, and assets.
CRT might transform how businesses connect with investors and raise capital.
For instance, an enterprise can tokenize rights to future services or sales and offer them to customers via on-chain contracts.
The mode bridged blockchain with traditional commerce to provide a new option for SMEs to access liquidity as investors gain exposure to RWA streams.
CRT isolates and tokenizes commercial rights of access and service. This enables commodities, services, and goods to be legally structured, accessed, exchanged, and monetized through blockchain infrastructure in a regulatory-compliant manner.
Precisely, Avalon Labs is going beyond asset tokenization. It is tokenizing the rights that add value to those assets.
AVL price outlook
Avalon Labs’ native token decoupled from broader declines as the whitepaper sparked optimism.
AVL soared roughly 16% from a daily low of $0.1436 to $0.1668 intraday peak.
Its 24-hour trading volume surged 50% to signal trader enthusiasm.
Nevertheless, it has cooled to $0.1570 as hype fades, possibly as bears rattled the overall cryptocurrency sector.
Continued broader dups could see AVL erasing its latest gains before establishing a decisive trajectory.
Cronos EVM v1.5.0 has officially debuted today, October 30.
The upgrade introduces new EVM opcodes, smart accounts, and enhanced interoperability.
Smarturn targets a more flexible, faster, and developer-friendly blockchain.
The Cronos blockchain has announced the launch of its anticipated Smarturn upgrade, welcoming a new era in its network evolution.
The update brings significant improvements across Cronos’s Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM), including increased interoperability, enhanced ecosystem performance, and smooth wallet functionality.
According to the announcement:
This mainnet upgrade marks a major leap in Cronos’ evolution – unlocking smart accounts, new EVM features, and improved performance for developers and users alike.
🚀 Cronos EVM upgrade complete — “Smarturn” is here!
This mainnet upgrade marks a major leap in Cronos’ evolution — unlocking smart accounts, new EVM features, and improved performance for developers and users alike.
The blockchain temporarily paused operations for roughly 60 minutes to integrate the new components.
Meanwhile, services are resuming gradually as the Cronos ecosystem undergoes a key milestone.
Smarturn aims to revolutionize Cronos through speed and compatibility using its unique innovations.
Smarter accounts arrive on Cronos
The high-end EIP-7702 smart account support is at the core of Cronos’ latest upgrade. With this feature, regular user wallets (Externally Owned Account (EOA) can perform like smart contract wallets.
That helps unlock capabilities previously possible via different accounts. According to the official blog:
EIP-7702 bridges this gap by letting EOAs act like smart contracts. The assigned contract code remains valid until the account issues a new authorization, which can apply to one chain or to multiple chains simultaneously.
Individuals can now perform different activities without changing account types, including using flexible gas payment methods, personalizing permissions, batching many transactions, and programming wallet behavior.
With EIP-7702, Cronos joins the few EVM-compatible platforms boasting such a level of account abstraction, merging automated control with simplicity.
The functionality will advance DeFi platforms and decentralized applications (dApps) on the Cronos blockchain through efficiency and user-friendliness.
Performance sees a massive boost
Furthermore, Cronos upgraded its EVM’s VM to operate on go-Ethereum v1.15.11, aligning with Ethereum’s Prague and Cancun upgrades.
The update aims to make contract execution and transacting cheaper and faster.
Also, it brings comprehensive client improvements and new EVM opcodes on Cronos to enhance efficiency, developer experience, and debugging. The team added:
These opcodes collectively make contract execution more efficient for complex DeFi, gaming contracts that handle multiple operations per transaction, and other computation-heavy applications.
Together, these upgrades make the Cronos EVM runtime faster, lighter, and more developer-centric.
Enhanced interoperability and tools
Smarturn also improves infrastructure for cross-chain builders and developers.
For instance, a new RPC endpoint enables the fetching of full block data in a single query.
That’s a win for dApp backends, analytics dashboards, and blockchain explorers.
Moreover, the mempool now allows users to cancel or speed up pending transactions.
That improves responsiveness amid massive network load.
Also, Cronos has adopted IBC v2 through ibc-go v10.1.1 to bolster cross-chain communication.
CRO price outlook
The alt hovered at $0.1470 after dropping roughly 1.5% the past 24 hours.
Its daily trading volume has collapsed by more than 60%, signaling faded enthusiasm.
Nonetheless, CRO reflects the broader sentiments.
Bitcoin trades below the key $110,000 after shedding nearly 3% of its value over the previous 24 hours.
Markets lost momentum after Powell’s cautious remarks concerning a rate cut in December.
Tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) may reach a cumulative value of $2 trillion in the next three years as more global capital and payments migrate onto more efficient blockchain rails, according to investment bank Standard Chartered.
The bank said in a Thursday report shared with Cointelegraph that the “trustless” structure of decentralized finance (DeFi) is poised to challenge the dominance of traditional financial (TradFi) systems controlled by centralized entities.
DeFi’s growing use in payments and investments may bolster non-stablecoin tokenized RWAs to a $2 trillion market capitalization by 2028, the investment bank predicts.
Of the $2 trillion, $750 billion is projected to flow into money-market funds, another $750 billion into tokenized US stocks, $250 billion into tokenized US funds, and another $250 billion into “less liquid” segments of private equity, including commodities, corporate debt and tokenized real estate.
“Stablecoin liquidity and DeFi banking are important pre-requisites for a rapid expansion of tokenised RWAs,” said Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, Geoff Kendrick, who added:
“We expect exponential growth in RWAs in the coming years.”
Reaching a $2 trillion market capitalization implies an over 57-fold growth for RWAs in the next three years from their current $35 billion cumulative value, according to data from RWA.xyz.
The total stablecoin supply reached a new record of over $300 billion on Oct. 3, marking a 46.8% year-to-date growth rate.
Kendrick said the stablecoin expansion is reinforcing the broader DeFi ecosystem.
“In DeFi, liquidity begets new products, and new products beget new liquidity,” he wrote. “We believe a self-sustaining cycle of DeFi growth has started.”
Despite the optimism, Standard Chartered said regulatory uncertainty remains the biggest threat to the RWA sector. The report warned that progress could stall if the Trump administration fails to deliver comprehensive crypto legislation before the 2026 midterm elections.
The Federal Reserve just cut the policy rate by 25 basis points, moving the target range to 3.75% to 4.00%. However, futures markets have now removed the prospect of a further cut in December.
Before yesterday’s FOMC meeting, many traders expected a third rate cut because inflation had gradually eased, the labor market showed signs of softening, and the Fed had already begun easing.
While the Fed did cut this time, Powell emphasized that another cut in December is “not a foregone conclusion, far from it.”
Powell said.
“There were strongly different views today. And the takeaway from that is that we haven’t made a decision about December, and we’re going to be looking at the data that we have and how that affects the outlook and the balance of risks.”
According to CME FedWatch, probabilities shifted after the press conference from a near lock on an additional cut to a hold as the base case with a live hike tail, and rate path distributions across 2026 moved up and flattened.
The adjustment leaves crypto facing a stickier liquidity backdrop, tighter sensitivity to incoming macro data, and wider dispersion across tokens.
December 10, 2025 FOMC, pre vs. post press conference (CME FedWatch snapshots)
Scenario
Pre-presser
Post-presser
Cut
≈ 96%
0%
Non-cut (hold or hike)
≈ 4%
≈ 100%*
December 10, 2025 FOMC, post-presser breakdown (CME FedWatch snapshot)
Scenario
Probability
Hold
≈ 70%
Hike
≈ 20%–30%
According to FedWatch, January 2026 retains a hike tail near 18.5 percent, which reflects persistent concern that sticky inflation could pull the Committee toward a reversal if data do not cool.
January 2026 FOMC, hike tail (CME FedWatch snapshot)
25 bps hike
Probability
Tail
≈ 18.5%
The longer-run path repriced higher. FedWatch distributions through 2026 collectively shifted roughly 25 basis points upward and flattened, with modal outcomes clustering around 3.00% to 3.25% through mid- and late 2026 and persisting into 2027.
Prior snapshots showed a tilt toward 2.75% to 3.00% late in 2026. The profile implies fewer and later cuts, and a market view that the neutral real interest rate sits above earlier estimates.
Modal policy rate ranges by horizon (CME FedWatch snapshots)
Horizon
Modal target range
Comment
Mid-2026 (Jun, Jul, Sep)
3.00%–3.25%
Mode shifted up, flatter distribution
Late-2026 (Oct, Dec)
3.00%–3.25%
Earlier flirtation with 2.75%–3.00% has faded
2027
3.00%–3.25%
No swift glide to pre-2024 “neutral”
The immediate market read-through for crypto ties back to liquidity and rates.
A higher-for-longer stance supports the dollar and keeps real yields firm, which has often weighed on high-beta risk and long-duration narratives tied to far-dated cash flows.
Bitcoin has tended to absorb that impulse with less drawdown than smaller capitalization tokens and alt-L1s. However, broad crypto liquidity, including stablecoin float and perp leverage, still reflects the same macro setting.
With balance sheet runoff ongoing and the policy rate elevated, the cost of capital within crypto ecosystems remains constrained, and treasury-bill alternatives pull some marginal demand away from basis and carry structures.
Flows become more data-dependent. Spot ETF and fund allocations are sensitive to swings in hike tails around major prints.
Upside inflation or hot labor data tends to lift near-term hike probabilities and pressure risk, while clear disinflation can reopen demand for duration and growth proxies.
That environment favors faster rotations between BTC and alts as probabilities move, with allocators leaning into higher-quality balance sheets and liquid pairs when uncertainty rises.
Policy uncertainty also reshapes the volatility regime.
A fatter hike tail widens the distribution of outcomes for crypto returns, and correlations to real yields and the dollar index often rise into key macro releases.
That pattern can increase dispersion within crypto, with projects anchored by more precise cash flow or fee capture holding up better than tokens with far-dated tokenomics and heavy emissions.
Funding markets may cheapen as the risk-free anchor rises, and miners face higher discount rates for capex and future cash flows, which places attention on power costs, leverage, and treasury mix.
Scenario mapping over the next one to three months centers on three paths.
The base case is a December hold near 70 percent odds on the latest snapshot, with growth cooling and inflation not yet soft enough to invite another quick cut. Under that setup, real yields stay firm, equities and crypto trade choppy ranges, and BTC performance skews toward resilience versus high-beta alt exposure.
A hawkish surprise, defined as a 25 basis point hike in December or January from the aggregated 20 to 30 percent tail, would amplify risk-off pressure, lift the dollar, and compress valuations across long-duration crypto, raising drawdown risk for leverage-intensive segments while pushing flows toward cash-flowing infrastructure and quality L2s.
A dovish surprise, where core measures ebb convincingly, would allow cuts to creep back into mid-2026 pricing. The liquidity impulse would first lift BTC as the cleanest macro proxy and then broaden if the soft-landing narrative strengthens.
Portfolio construction in this tape often prioritizes liquidity management, basis calibration, and convexity.
Given its depth and cleaner macro beta, BTC remains the most direct instrument for tactically expressing shifts in policy odds around CPI, PCE, and labor reports. Within alts, dispersion screening around the runway, emissions, and fee capture matter more when the risk-free anchor is higher.
For miners, sensitivity to power pricing and balance sheet leverage becomes a larger driver of equity-linked tokens and revenue sharing, and forward hedging costs need to be weighed against spot upside optionality.
“The cut landed, but the pivot did not, and traders now lean higher for longer through 2026.”
According to CME FedWatch, the repricing is visible across the entire curve of meeting outcomes, with the December 10 meeting now presenting a hold as the base case and a non-trivial hike tail.
Per the Federal Reserve, the benchmark move delivered the cut, while communication kept the easing path slow and conditional. The December meeting now enters focus with a hold as the central probability and a live hike tail.
Fed rate current probabilities as of Oct 30, 2025 (Source: CME FedWatch)
FedWatch probabilities are implied from futures and update intraday. Snapshots here reflect the attached tables at the time of capture.
