Michael Saylor’s Strategy has added another 397 Bitcoin worth about $45.6 million, but the firm’s buying pace continues to slow compared to its pre-October accumulation streak.
Strategy acquired 397 Bitcoin (BTC) worth $45.6 million last week at an average price of $114,771 per coin, according to a Monday filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission.
This brings its total holdings to 641,205 BTC acquired for $47.49 billion at an average price of $74,047 per coin, with a Bitcoin yield of 26.1% year-to-date (YTD) , according to a Monday X post from Strategy.
Analysts warn that the slower pace could weigh on Bitcoin’s price recovery. Strategy and US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have been the primary drivers of demand throughout 2025, according to analytics platform CryptoQuant.
The analytics platform predicted that Bitcoin’s price will be unable to recover to its previous highs until these entities restart large-scale accumulations.
“Demand is now driven mostly by ETFs and MicroStrategy, both slowing buys recently. If these two channels recover, market momentum likely returns,” said Ki Young Ju, the founder and CEO of crypto analytics platform CryptoQuant, in a Sunday X post.
XRP can serve as short-term working capital for currency exchanges, as transactions typically take only a few minutes to complete.
Orders move through central exchanges, and if any money needs to be held briefly, companies can hedge that risk using XRP futures.
The idea is to use local liquidity at both ends of a transaction while using XRP as a bridge in between. This approach keeps the time money is held to a minimum, helping prevent price differences from building up.
The October 10 deleveraging event, where order-book depth vanished within minutes across majors, served as a live-fire reminder that execution is path-dependent and inventory can become stuck during stress.
The hedging toolset improved this year, with the CME Group listing XRP and Micro-XRP futures on May 19, and more than $19 million of notional trading on day one. The combination shifts the calculus for treasurers who could not access a regulated delta hedge in 2024.
The working path today is straightforward.
Source fiat to XRP on the most liquid venues in the origin market, atomize across books using TWAP or VWAP, transfer and settle, then convert XRP back to fiat at the destination, keeping XRP exposure to minutes.
If any non-zero hold is unavoidable, open a short CME XRP future concurrent with the spot buy and unwind against the destination leg. Residuals remain, including futures-spot basis and intraday liquidity on the specific expiry, but a listed contract reduces onboarding friction for regulated balance sheets.
[Editor’s Note: The methodology below is for educational and analytical purposes only in relation to institutional FX trading and should not be considered FX trading advice for retail investors.]
Time in inventory dominates basis risk, which rises non-linearly with hold time.
A 95 percent one-tailed VaR model across annualized volatility bands of 40, 55, and 70 percent shows how tight the window must be to keep drift inside treasury tolerances.
To keep VaR at or below 10 basis points, allowable holds compress to approximately 1.2 minutes at a 40 percent volume, 0.7 minutes at a 55 percent volume, and 0.4 minutes at a 70 percent volume.
For a 25 basis-point band, the window expands to roughly 7.5, 4.0, and 2.5 minutes, respectively. At 50 basis points, a treasury has about 30.2 minutes at 40 percent, 16.0 minutes at 55 percent, and 9.9 minutes at 70 percent before inventory P&L becomes material.
These thresholds precede fees, spreads, and slippage, so operational buffers should be smaller.
XRP inventory modeling
Local liquidity remains the constraint.
Kaiko’s mid-year depth work ranked XRP among the top altcoins by 1 percent market depth across vetted exchanges, which supports just-in-time execution when orders are split and routed.
Depth is pair and venue specific, so routing should bias toward USDT, USD, and KRW books that routinely carry larger sizes, with care taken around time-of-day effects.
XRPL’s native DEX, including the AMM introduced with XLS-30, provides last-mile fills but not primary size. DeFi Llama shows XRPL DEX volumes in the single-digit millions over 24 hours and approximately $178 million over 30 days at the time of capture, which is helpful for small clips but not a replacement for major CEX liquidity. Treasurers should be takers, not LPs, given price impact and impermanent loss on AMMs.
The corridor view illustrates how execution relies on venue choice at the endpoints. USD and USDT legs typically route through Binance and Coinbase, where XRP books consistently have a depth of 1 percent or more.
EUR legs commonly use Bitstamp and other European venues, with intraday variability that supports TWAP for larger clips.
KRW legs concentrate on Upbit’s retail-driven market, where XRP often ranks among the top pairs by volume, but weekend and off-hours liquidity can thin, according to Kaiko’s Korea market report.
For U.S.–Mexico, Bitso remains a canonical MXN endpoint referenced in Ripple materials. XRPL DEX can assist as a supplementary path for local fills.
Corridor
Primary venues
Depth or volume signals
Caveats
USD ↔ EUR
Coinbase, Binance, Bitstamp
XRP among top altcoins by 1% depth on vetted exchanges
Depth varies intraday, favor TWAP for larger clips
USD ↔ KRW
Upbit
XRP frequently a top KRW pair by volume
Retail-led flows, watch spreads and weekend liquidity
USD ↔ MXN
Bitso
Established endpoint in Ripple corridors
Pair-specific depth varies, confirm book before routing
On-chain last mile
XRPL DEX, AMM
~6.7 million 24h, ~178 million 30d volumes
Supplement only for size, price impact and IL for LPs
Hedging practices are straightforward to operationalize.
Spot-only just-in-time conversion can work for micro-windows under 10 to 15 minutes during USD, EUR, and KRW liquidity hours, especially when splitting across venues and pairs with strong 1 percent depth.
A micro-hedged overlay opens the short CME XRP future at the time of the spot buy, which compresses delta exposure during transit and can be unwound against the destination leg.
Offshore perpetuals introduce funding costs and counterparty considerations that many treasuries cannot accept, whereas listed CME contracts mitigate these hurdles. XRPL AMM can assist with last-mile coverage where CEX books are thin, but operational design should keep treasuries out of LP roles.
Failure modes should be treated as design constraints rather than exceptions.
First, order-book evaporation can turn a minute-scale inventory into an hour if deleveraging hits mid-clip, a dynamic observed on Oct. 10.
Second, hedge liquidity can mismatch the spot leg during stress, widening the futures-spot basis intraday.
Third, venue-specific regimes matter, including KRW retail flows that introduce premiums and spread variability.
Fourth, protocol and SDK incidents remain part of the operational risk set, including XRPL’s AMM bug after launch and the XRPL.js SDK backdoor later disclosed.
Finally, balance-sheet costs weigh on bank participation.
Basel’s crypto standards classify unbacked crypto, such as XRP, in Group 2 with punitive capital, and the EBA’s draft technical standards align the EU prudential regime with Basel, which raises the cost of warehousing XRP inventory on regulated balance sheets.
The decision framework collapses to three cases.
If both ends can convert within roughly 5 to 10 minutes, spot-only just-in-time conversion on deep CLOBs can keep 95 percent VaR inside roughly 25 to 50 basis points, contingent on realized volatility.
If the operation requires up to about an hour, overlay a futures hedge and split execution across multiple venues to limit basis drift and execution slippage.
If routine holds stretch to multi-hour windows, XRP does not serve as a low-basis working capital rail today because inventory carry, capital costs, and event risk dominate.
What comes next is measurable. CME XRP futures need to sustain open interest and ADV so that hedgers can rely on intraday depth and tighter basis, and a build-out would lower residual basis risk for listed hedges.
Kaiko’s post-October debriefs will show whether depth metrics recover or if fragility persists into the fourth quarter. The EBA’s final technical standards will establish the European prudential framework for bank inventory, which will shape the practical scope for just-in-time strategies within regulated treasuries.
Practical implications for FX markets
At a practical level, pairing local liquidity with global payment rails is effective when operations teams minimize settlement time, route orders through the deepest books, and deploy a listed hedge whenever inventory cannot be compressed to just minutes.
Global FX spot averages $7–8 T/day, so even at $5 B/day, XRP would represent roughly 0.06% of global FX turnover. This is small in macro terms but massive in the crypto context.
For context, $5 billion per day would place XRP’s utility-driven flow on par with smaller fiat corridors (e.g., MXN-CLP) and 10 times current ODL peaks that Ripple has hinted at in public filings.
Using this “just-in-time working-capital” strategy, XRP could realistically intermediate $3–8 billion/day of cross-currency settlement volume under current liquidity conditions, and perhaps exceed $10 billion/day if CME and regulatory infrastructure mature.
Scenario
Description
Estimated XRP throughput
Baseline (current liquidity)
Select corridors (USD-KRW, USD-MXN, USD-EUR) using CEX routing
The moved assets included StakeWise Staked Ether (OSETH), Wrapped Ether (WETH), and Lido wstETH (wSTETH).
In September 2023, Balancer suffered a phishing attack that resulted in a loss of about $238,000.
A separate August exploit drained nearly $1 million after a vulnerability was found in Balancer’s liquidity pools.
A suspected exploit involving nearly $70 million worth of digital assets has once again placed Balancer, one of Ethereum’s leading decentralised exchanges, under scrutiny.
The incident has reignited debate over the security of decentralised finance (DeFi), where transparency and automation often coexist with deep structural vulnerabilities.
It also shows how core DeFi features such as permissionless access, open-source code, and composable smart contracts can quickly turn into liabilities when targeted by skilled attackers.
For Balancer, the breach adds to a growing record of cyber incidents that are reshaping risk perceptions across digital finance and prompting calls for stronger, coordinated defences across the DeFi ecosystem.
$70 million in Ether-linked assets transferred to new wallet
Blockchain records on Etherscan show that $70.9 million in assets were moved from Balancer liquidity pools to a newly created wallet via three transactions.
Data from analytics firm Nansen identified the transferred assets as 6,850 StakeWise Staked Ether (OSETH), 6,590 Wrapped Ether (WETH), and 4,260 Lido wstETH (wSTETH).
On-chain analysts began tracking the wallet’s behaviour, observing similarities to previous DeFi drain patterns.
Blockchain security firm Cyvers reported that up to $84 million in suspicious transactions across multiple chains may be linked to Balancer.
The firm is currently analysing whether the transfers were coordinated through smart-contract vulnerabilities or facilitated by an external exploit exploiting inter-protocol liquidity flows.
History of attacks at Balancer
In September 2023, the protocol’s website was compromised through a domain name system (DNS) hijack that redirected users to a phishing interface.
Hackers executed malicious smart contracts designed to capture private keys and drain funds, resulting in losses of approximately $238,000, according to blockchain investigator ZachXBT.
Just a month earlier, in August, Balancer reported a stablecoin exploit that cost liquidity providers nearly $1 million.
That incident occurred shortly after the team disclosed a “critical vulnerability” affecting certain liquidity pools, which had been partially mitigated but remained exploitable in specific configurations.
The recurrence of incidents within such a short timeframe suggests that DeFi’s open-source nature, while fostering innovation, also provides attackers with an evolving blueprint to target protocol weaknesses.
These breaches demonstrate that security audits alone are insufficient without continuous on-chain monitoring and real-time risk mitigation systems.
DeFi’s security paradox
The Balancer case illustrates a paradox at the heart of decentralised finance.
By removing intermediaries, protocols achieve transparency and autonomy, while also eliminating the possibility of intervention when funds are misappropriated.
Unlike centralised exchanges that can freeze or reverse transactions, DeFi protocols operate on immutable smart contracts.
Once exploited, losses are permanent and typically unrecoverable.
This structural rigidity has drawn criticism from institutional investors who view such vulnerabilities as barriers to large-scale adoption.
In response, some DeFi projects have introduced layered defences such as decentralised insurance pools, advanced audit frameworks, and formal verification of contract code.
However, these measures remain inconsistent across the ecosystem.
Balancer’s repeated security issues may therefore serve as a case study in how liquidity incentives and composability can amplify systemic exposure.
As DeFi protocols become more interconnected through shared token standards and cross-chain bridges, a single compromised smart contract can trigger cascading financial risks across multiple platforms.
Standard Chartered’s CEO made comments predicting the end of cash and the digitization of all money at the Hong Kong FinTech Week 2025.
During the event, Standard Chartered Group Chief Executive Bill Winters said that the bank shares a common belief with the Hong Kong leadership that all transactions will eventually be settled on the blockchain.
“All transactions will settle on blockchains eventually, and all money will be digital,” Winters said, framing the shift as nothing less than a “complete rewiring of the financial system.”
He added that while there’s a vision, they didn’t know exactly how the system would be rewired. Because of this, experimentation is necessary, and Hong Kong excels in this area. Winters credited Hong Kong regulators for striking a balance between experimentation and compliance, embracing innovation while maintaining safeguards.
“Hong Kong has already established that leading role,” Winters said. “I have every reason to believe it will continue to play that role.”
Standard Chartered Group Chief Executive Bill Winters. Source: Hong Kong FinTech Week
HSBC expresses confidence in Hong Kong’s financial ecosystem
Apart from Standard Chartered’s prediction, HSBC Group Chief Executive Georges Elhedery also brought up Hong Kong’s talent ecosystem during the discussion.
Elhedery cited the bank’s $13.6 billion investment proposal to privatize Hang Seng Bank as a vote of confidence in the region’s potential.
“This summarizes how much confidence and conviction we have in the outlook for Hong Kong’s financial and technology innovation,” Elhedery said.
He added that beyond banking infrastructure, HSBC is also investing in education and research.
He shared their arrangements with the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology to nurture the next generation of innovators who could drive financial transformation in Hong Kong.
HSBC originated as the Hong Kong and Shanghai Banking Corporation in 1865 but is now a multinational universal bank headquartered in London.
Hong Kong Financial Secretary on having mainland China as backers
During the panel, Paul Chan Mo-po, Hong Kong’s Financial Secretary, also contributed to the discussion by underscoring the region’s unique position as a financial hub and a gateway to mainland China.
When asked whether Hong Kong could overtake Switzerland as the world’s top cross-border wealth management hub, Chan said Hong Kong’s foundation is already strong.
“We have a wonderful ecosystem — excellent products, professional services,” Chan said. “On the other hand, the mainland is our backing. It has a huge population and wealth, so we are very confident.”
BTC is down 3% in the last 24 hours and is now trading below $108k.
The bearish performance comes as momentum in the market continues to weaken.
Bitcoin slips below $108k
The cryptocurrency market is opening the weekly candle bearish, with Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies suffering huge losses in the last 24 hours. Bitcoin has lost 3% of its value since Sunday and is now trading at $107,500 per coin.
Other leading cryptocurrencies, including Ether, XRP, and BNB, are all trading in the red as momentum in the market continues to weaken.
BTC’s price faced rejection at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $115k last week as the Fed rate cut failed to spur a rally. It has lost over 7% of its value since then and could dip lower if the bearish trend continues.
The recent bearish trend comes as the Fed chair Jerome Powell quenched expectations of a December rate cut during his press conference last week. According to Powell, the tariffs continue to affect prices, and this could see the Fed leave interest rates unchanged for a while.
BTC could dip below $107k as bearish momentum strengthens
The BTC/USD 4-hour chart remains bearish and efficient as Bitcoin has lost 3% of its value in the last 24 hours. The technical indicators are currently bearish, with further selling pressure expected in the market.
The RSI of 45 is below the neutral 50, suggesting that sellers are currently in control of the market. The MACD lines are also below the positive zone, indicating a bearish bias.
If the selloff continues, Bitcoin’s price could drop to the $106k level over the next few hours. An extended bearish trend would see BTC drop to he major support level at $103,571.
However, if the bulls regain control of the market, Bitcoin could reclaim the first major resistance level at $111,370. Last week’s high of $116,447 remains unlike at the moment due to the heavy selling pressure.
DOGE is the worst performer among the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market cap, down 7.5% in the last 24 hours.
The bearish performance comes as BTC and other major cryptos underperform.
DOGE leads the market flush
The cryptocurrency market has underperformed over the weekend, with Bitcoin’s price dropping below the $108k mark. As usual, memecoins suffered the heaviest blow, with Dogecoin (DOGE), Shiba Inu (SHIB), and Pepe (PEPE) all recording huge losses in the last 24 hours.
On-chain and derivatives data suggest that large wallet investors and retailers are reducing their risk exposure to Dogecoin and other leading memecoins, boosting the supply pressure.
Data obtained from CoinGlass shows the futures Open Interest (OI) for Dogecoin, the notional value of all outstanding futures contracts, is down by 2% over the last 24 hours, reaching $1.70 billion. A decline in OI value suggests that the traders are reducing risk exposure by lowering leverage or closing positions.
Furthermore, on-chain data reveal that interest from large wallet investors is decreasing in memecoins. DOGE investors with over 100 million tokens have remained flat since the start of the month.
DOGE could retest the monthly support at $0.15
The DOGE/USD 4-hour chart is bearish and inefficient as the memecoin has failed to rally in recent weeks. The technical indicators are extremely bearish at the moment, suggesting further selling pressure.
At press time, DOGE is trading at $0.175, down 7.5% in the last 24 hours. The bulls failed to hold the price above the $0.17816 support level, marked by the October 11 low, with current price action suggesting further downward movement.
A daily close below this level could see DOGE dip towards the $0.15009 level, marked by the October 10 crash. The MACD lines are within the negative territory, while the RSI of 40 both suggests a bearish bias.
However, if the bulls push DOGE’s price above the $0.17819 level by the end of the day, the memecoin could hit Sunday’s high at $0.18884 over the next few hours.
Tax authorities like the IRS, HMRC and ATO classify crypto as a capital asset, meaning that sales, trades and even swaps are considered taxable events.
Tax authorities worldwide are coordinating through frameworks like the FATF and the OECD’s CARF to track transactions, even across borders and privacy coins.
Authorities use blockchain analytics firms like Chainalysis to link wallet addresses with real identities, tracking even complex DeFi and cross-chain transactions.
Maintaining detailed logs of trades, staking rewards and gas fees helps calculate accurate gains and ensures smoother tax filings.
Many traders see crypto as outside the traditional financial system, but tax authorities treat it as property, subject to the same rules as stocks or real estate. That means trading, earning or selling crypto without reporting it can lead to penalties and audits.
This article explains what can happen if you don’t pay your crypto taxes. It covers everything from the first notice you might get from the tax department to the serious penalties that can follow. You’ll also learn what steps you can take to get back on track.
Why is crypto taxable?
Cryptocurrency is taxable because authorities such as the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) in the US, His Majesty’s Revenue and Customs (HMRC) in the UK and the Australian Taxation Office (ATO) in Australia treat it as property or a capital asset rather than currency.
As a result, selling, trading or spending crypto can trigger a taxable event, much like selling stocks. Income from activities such as staking, mining, airdrops or yield farming must also be reported based on the fair market value at the time it’s received.
Even exchanging one cryptocurrency for another can result in capital gains or losses, depending on the price difference between acquisition and disposal. To comply with tax rules, individuals should maintain detailed records of all transactions, including timestamps, amounts and market values at the time of each trade.
Accurate documentation is essential for filing annual tax returns, calculating gains and maintaining transparency. It also helps prevent penalties for underreporting or tax evasion as crypto tax rules keep changing.
Common reasons people skip paying crypto taxes
People may not pay taxes on their cryptocurrency transactions because they’re confused, uninformed or find compliance too complicated. Here are some common reasons why individuals don’t report or pay the crypto taxes they owe:
Assumption of anonymity: Some users mistakenly believe cryptocurrencies are anonymous and that transactions can’t be traced. This misconception often leads them to skip reporting their activity to tax authorities.
Use of private platforms: Some individuals use non-Know Your Customer (KYC) exchanges or self-custody wallets in an attempt to keep their crypto transactions hidden from authorities.
Confusion over taxable events: Many users don’t realize that everyday actions like trading, selling or spending crypto are taxable events, similar to selling traditional assets such as stocks.
Compliance complexity: The challenge of keeping detailed records, including market values and timestamps, and the lack of clear tax guidance often discourage people from properly reporting their crypto transactions.
Did you know? Simply buying and holding crypto (hodling) in your wallet or on an exchange isn’t usually a taxable event. Taxes apply only when you sell, trade or spend it and make a profit.
How authorities track crypto transactions
Governments use advanced technology and global data-sharing systems to monitor cryptocurrency transactions. Agencies such as the IRS, HMRC and ATO often work with companies such as Chainalysis and Elliptic to trace wallet addresses, analyze transaction histories and link anonymous accounts to real-world identities.
Exchanges share user data on crypto trades and holdings through reports like the US Form 1099-DA and international frameworks like the Common Reporting Standard (CRS). Even decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms, mixers and cross-chain bridges leave traceable records on blockchains, allowing investigators to follow transaction paths with precision.
Moreover, countries are strengthening cooperation through the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s (OECD) Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework (CARF), which standardizes global sharing of crypto transaction data. These measures make cryptocurrencies far less anonymous, allowing governments to identify tax evasion, money laundering and unreported profits more effectively.
Consequences of not paying crypto taxes
Failing to pay taxes on your cryptocurrency holdings can lead to serious legal and financial consequences. At first, tax authorities may impose civil penalties, including fines for late payments, underreporting and accrued interest. For example, the IRS can charge up to 25% of the unpaid tax, while the UK’s HMRC issues penalties for non-disclosure or inaccurate reporting.
Continued noncompliance can lead to audits and frozen accounts, as tax agencies detect unreported crypto transactions through their databases. Authorities may obtain user information from regulated exchanges like Coinbase and Kraken through legal requests or international data-sharing agreements.
In serious cases, willful tax evasion can result in criminal charges, leading to prosecution, heavy fines or even imprisonment. Ignoring crypto tax obligations also harms your compliance record and can increase the likelihood of future scrutiny from tax authorities, making timely reporting essential.
Did you know? If your crypto portfolio is down, you can sell assets at a loss to offset any capital gains you’ve made. This strategy, known as tax-loss harvesting, can legally reduce your overall tax bill.
How the global crypto tax net is tightening
Global efforts to enforce cryptocurrency tax compliance are intensifying as regulators increase collaboration. The Group of Twenty (G20) nations, together with the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) and the OECD, are backing standards to monitor and tax digital assets. The OECD’s CARF will enable the automatic sharing of taxpayer data across jurisdictions, reducing opportunities for offshore tax evasion.
Authorities are paying closer attention to offshore crypto wallets, non-compliant exchanges and privacy coins such as Monero (XMR) and Zcash (ZEC), which conceal transaction details. Recent actions include warning letters from the IRS and HMRC to thousands of crypto investors suspected of underreporting profits.
Authorities in both the EU and Japan are taking strong enforcement action against unregistered crypto platforms. These steps reflect a wider global push to monitor digital assets, making it increasingly difficult for crypto holders to rely on anonymity or jurisdictional loopholes to avoid taxes.
Did you know? Holding your crypto for more than a year before selling may qualify your profits for lower long-term capital gains tax rates in some countries, such as the US and Australia, where these rates are significantly lower than short-term rates.
What to do if you haven’t reported
If you haven’t reported your cryptocurrency taxes, it’s important to act quickly to minimize potential penalties. Start by reviewing your complete transaction history from exchanges, wallets and DeFi platforms. Use blockchain explorers or crypto tax tools such as Koinly, CoinTracker or TokenTax to accurately calculate your capital gains and losses.
Submit amended tax returns to correct any previous oversights, as many tax authorities, including the IRS and HMRC, allow this before taking enforcement action. Several countries also offer voluntary disclosure or leniency programs that can reduce fines or prevent criminal charges if you report proactively.
Acting promptly shows good faith to regulators and greatly increases the chances of a positive outcome. The sooner you correct errors and report unreported income, the lower your legal and financial risks will be.
How to stay compliant with crypto tax laws
To avoid cryptocurrency tax issues, stay compliant and maintain thorough documentation. Keep detailed records of all transactions, including trades, swaps, staking rewards and gas fees, since these affect your taxable gains or losses. Use regulated exchanges to access transaction data easily and ensure alignment with local reporting rules, such as those under the CARF or the CRS.
Regularly review your country’s crypto tax guidelines, as rules and definitions often change. For DeFi or cross-chain platforms, record wallet addresses and timestamps for each transaction. If you’re unsure about complex activities such as airdrops, non-fungible tokens (NFTs) or staking rewards, seek advice from a professional who specializes in digital asset taxation.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
Bitcoin has treated $106,400 as a pivot across the current cycle, acting as both resistance and support.
Price has repeatedly clustered near the level, cleared it on retests, and expanded toward the next channel bands, while breaks below the level often required a repair phase before any advance.
My charts below show price channels that have been most influential to Bitcoin since the start of 2024, with $106,400 highlighted by the solid yellow line.
In mid-December 2024, the price first broke $106,000 after a steady climb from sub-$100,000 areas. Once the level cleared, the price pressed to $107,800 before failing a retest of $106,400 and falling back into the mid-$90,000s.
Bitcoin price test of $106,400 December 2024
Late January 2025 brought a similar pattern with more back-and-fill. Bitcoin met $106,400 from below, then stalled. Follow-through carried the intraday price into the $108,300 range before again failing the retest.
Even with noise inside the channel grid, the inflection at $106,400 organized the action, with the market repeatedly checking the level before moving back down. The consistency of this behavior across weeks is what makes the line useful for risk management.
Bitcoin price test of $106,400 January 2025
By late May 2025, the relationship flipped. The price tested $106,400 twice from below and then twice more from above before using this level as support several more times.
Bounces carried to $111,900 and $110,300, then momentum faded on the sixth retest, and a grind lower began.
During this period, $106,400 behaved like a floor. As long as closes held above it, sellers failed to press the next lower bands in size. Once that floor finally gave way by the end of the month, recovery took longer, reinforcing the idea that losing the pivot changes the tempo.
Bitcoin price test of $106,400 May 2025
June 2025 illustrated the support and resistance function again.
After dipping below the level in mid-month and subsequently being rejected four more times (with one intraday breakout above), Bitcoin eventually reclaimed $106,400 at the end of the month, held multiple intraday highs, and advanced to $108,300 and $109,400.
The response after each retest was orderly, which is typical when a widely watched pivot is respected. Traders who waited for confirmation at the line had explicit invalidation if the price fell back through $106,400, and clear targets in the upper bands if it held.
Bitcoin price test of $106,400 June 2025
This saw Bitcoin crack into price discovery territory and eventually reach its cycle high of $126,000. We did not see $106,400 tested again until the Trump trade tariff $19 billion wipeout on October 10.
The sequence from October to early November 2025 shows the other side.
A decisive drop from higher levels wicked down to $106,400 before surging back toward $115,000. Bitcoin has attempted to hold the pivot several times, and as of press time, it is about to mark its eighth test.
So far, each time $106,400 has been tested since we hit $126,000, the price immediately bounced back toward $110,000 – $115,000.
Ominously, Bitcoin has never held $106,400 after eight retests before.
Bitcoin price test of $106,400 October – November 2025
These repeated interactions matter because they compress a complex set of variables into a single reference.
$106,400 aligns with the middle of the current channel pack on the displayed framework, which means it sits near a fair-value axis where both buyers and sellers find liquidity.
When the price is accepted above this level, the path of least resistance shifts to the next upper cluster. When the price rejects or loses its level, the market often has to rebuild participation below before buyers regain control again.
The pattern across the screenshots can be summarized as follows.
Date window
Interaction with $106,400
Immediate outcome
Next band(s) reached/tested
Dec 16–22, 2024
First breakout above $106,000; failed retest of $106,400
Rejection and drop into mid-$90,000s
$107,800
Jan 20–27, 2025
Approach from below, stall, then failed retest after intraday push higher
Consolidation beneath the pivot
$108,300
May 19–31, 2025
Flip from resistance to support; held several times, then lost floor late-month
Bounces then grind lower after breakdown
$111,900 and $110,300 before slipping under
Jun 9–30, 2025
Reclaimed and held after multiple failed mid-month tests
Orderly advance and confirmation of pivot
$108,300 and $109,400
Jul–Sep 2025
Consolidation above; not retested during rally to cycle high
Cycle high formation
$126,000 peak (no contact with pivot)
Oct 10–21, 2025
Tariff shock wick to $106,400, sharp rebound
Bounce toward $115K
$110,000-$115,000
Oct 22–Nov 3, 2025
Repeated retests of $106,400 (approaching eighth as of press time)
Still holding intraday, but risk of loss rising
Rebounds toward $110K-$115K
For traders who map decisions to levels, the playbook is straightforward.
When price clears $106,400 and confirms on a retest, attention naturally shifts to the next overhead clusters around $107,800, $108,300, $109,400, and $110,500, which line up with the dashed yellow rungs on the displayed ladder.
Failure back through the pivot returns focus to the downside stack around $105,500, $104,500, and $103,800, where the market has repeatedly found liquidity during breakdowns.
This framework does not predict direction; it defines areas where execution quality tends to improve and where invalidation is unambiguous.
This level also helps reconcile conflicting signals from momentum or funding.
During periods when momentum turns but price still sits above $106,400, the path to higher bands often remains open as long as the pivot holds.
During periods when derivative positioning appears crowded, yet the market cannot reclaim its level, the burden of proof remains with buyers until acceptance returns. The outcome is a practical approach to managing exposure without overfitting to short-term indicators.
None of these assigns special status to a single number beyond its repeated use in the current structure. Markets evolve, and pivots migrate as distributions shift.
However, the charted channels have depicted intraday support and resistance levels for almost 2 years at this point.
The value of $106,400 lies in the tape that keeps returning to it, the reactions that form around it, and the clarity it offers for planning the next trade.
Thus, $106,400 appears to be functioning as the cycle’s balance point, and price continues to treat it accordingly..
Bitcoin Market Data
At the time of press 10:12 am UTC on Nov. 3, 2025, Bitcoin is ranked #1 by market cap and the price is down 2.92% over the past 24 hours. Bitcoin has a market capitalization of $2.14 trillion with a 24-hour trading volume of $45.93 billion. Learn more about Bitcoin ›
Crypto Market Summary
At the time of press 10:12 am UTC on Nov. 3, 2025, the total crypto market is valued at at $3.59 trillion with a 24-hour volume of $142.93 billion. Bitcoin dominance is currently at 59.65%. Learn more about the crypto market ›
Stablecoin company Zerohash has secured a license under the European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA), making it one of the first infrastructure providers authorized to offer stablecoin services across the EU.
Zerohash Europe announced Sunday that it acquired a license from the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM). This allows the company to provide stablecoin and crypto products to banking institutions, financial technology companies and payment platforms across the 30 European Economic Area (EEA) countries. The AFM’s official registry confirmed that Zerohash has become a registered crypto-asset service provider (CASP).
The approval positions Zerohash’s European arm as a CASP that can function as the backbone for organizations exploring tokenized assets, stablecoins and other blockchain-based financial products.
Cointelegraph reached out to Zerohash for more information, but had not received a response by publication.
Zerohash wins EU license as Mastercard eyes $2 billion acquisition
Zerohash was founded in 2017 and provides crypto infrastructure solutions to clients including Morgan Stanley, Franklin Templeton and Stripe. The company’s MiCA license approval follows reports that payments provider Mastercard is eyeing a $2 billion acquisition of the company.
Citing anonymous sources, Fortune reported Wednesday that Mastercard was in advanced talks to acquire the startup in a deal valued from $1.5 billion to $2 billion.
The development follows earlier efforts from Mastercard to expand its participation in the stablecoin space.
In August, Mastercard announced that it would enable acquirers and merchants in Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EEMEA) to settle transactions in Circle’s USDC (USDC) and Euro Coin (EURC).
Companies like the Arab Financial Services and Eazy Financial Services will be the first to adopt the services. This marks the first stablecoin settlement available through Mastercard in the EEMEA region.
In September, Kazakhstan’s central bank collaborated with Mastercard and Solana on a pilot project involving a stablecoin pegged to its local fiat currency.
On Sept. 23, the National Bank of Kazakhstan launched the stablecoin project within the framework of its Digital Assets Regulatory Sandbox.
The Evo (KZTE) stablecoin is pegged to the country’s tenge currency and is issued by sandbox participant Intebix Crypto Exchange and local lender Eurasian Bank.
Lawmakers in France have voted to advance an amendment to the country’s tax laws that would impose levies on “unproductive wealth,” including some types of property and crypto holdings.
Centrist MP Jean-Paul Matteï filed the amendment on Oct. 22, with members of the National Assembly, the country’s lower house, passing the amendment with a vote of 163-150 late on Friday, with the backing of socialist and far-right MPs.
The measure will still have to survive the remainder of the parliamentary process as lawmakers look to pass a budget for 2026 and will have to pass through the Senate before it becomes law.
Matteï’s summary of the amendment said that the current real estate wealth tax law was “economically inconsistent” as it “excludes unproductive goods from its plate,” such as “gold, coins, classic cars, yachts, works of art.”
He claimed that the new tax would “encourage productive investment,” as the current system did not account for assets that could “contribute to the dynamism of the French economy.”
Crypto wrapped up in “unproductive” assets
The summary notes that “unproductive goods” would no longer be exempt under the law, and taxable assets have been expanded to include “non-productive” real estate, property such as “precious objects” and planes, and as well as “digital assets.”
Only those with “unproductive wealth” exceeding 2 million euros ($2.3 million) will be taxed, rising from the threshold of 1.3 million ($1.5 million) under current laws.
The tax rate is also changed, charging a flat rate of 1% on the taxable assets over the 2 million euro threshold.
The current real estate wealth tax is progressive, ranging from no tax on assets below 800,000 euros ($922,660) and jumping to 1.5% for assets above 10 million euros ($11.5 million).
The amendment to include digital assets has seemingly disappointed local crypto enthusiasts.
Éric Larchevêque, the co-founder of crypto wallet maker Ledger, said on Saturday that the amendment “punishes all savers who wish to financially anchor themselves to gold and Bitcoin in order to protect their future.”
“The political message is clear: ‘Crypto is equated with an unproductive reserve, not useful to the real economy,’” he added. “This is a major ideological error, but revealing of a fiscal shift: punishing the holding of value outside the fiat monetary system.”
Larchevêque stated that French crypto holders may be compelled to sell their assets to pay the tax if they have no other liquid assets, and expressed concern that the 2 million euros threshold could be subsequently lowered.
“There is certainly still a legislative process for this to be included in the 2026 PLF [budget], but the probability of it coming into effect on January 1 remains strong,” he said.
