Bitcoin’s price appears to be losing steam, which may mean that the more optimistic forecasts for the end of 2025 may not materialize this year.
However, analysts are divided on whether Bitcoin (BTC) will see renewed momentum in 2026.
“We don’t expect crypto to go any higher than $125K USD in 2025,” ShapeShift analyst Houston Morgan said in comments viewed by Cointelegraph. That target is just below Bitcoin’s Oct. 4 all-time high of just over $126,000.
Morgan said that Bitcoin would need to untether itself from its current correlation with announcements made by US President Donald Trump before another bull run could occur.
It comes as Bitcoin selling intensified on Tuesday as BTC abruptly fell to 4-month lows of $100,800. Bitfinex analysts said on Tuesday that “persistent distribution from Bitcoin long-term holders continues to exert structural pressure on the market.”
Bitcoin analysts point to “broader signs of exhaustion”
Bitfinex analysts said that “this sustained outflow aligns with the broader signs of exhaustion visible across the market, as long-term holders continue to offload into declining demand.”
They warned that if Bitcoin doesn’t quickly rebound to recent levels above $116,000, it could face further downside as the year comes to a close.
Bitcoin has declined by 10.01% over the past seven days. Source: CoinMarketCap
“Unless the price recovers decisively above this range, time becomes a growing headwind for bulls, as prolonged stagnation historically erodes sentiment and increases the risk of forced distribution.”
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which measures overall crypto market sentiment, dropped by half to a score of 21 out of 100 on Tuesday, showing the market was in “Extreme Fear.”
Bitcoin’s current price weakness contrasts significantly with recent calls for explosive upside. Just weeks ago, prominent Bitcoin advocates suggested the asset could still reach $250,000 before year-end.
Bitcoiners tip $250,000 by the end of year
Speaking on the Bankless podcast in early October, BitMine chair Tom Lee and BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes said they remain confident Bitcoin can hit between $200,000 and $250,000 by year-end, a prediction they’ve stuck with for most of this year.
However, Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz said planets would almost need to align for Bitcoin to reach that price by the end of the year.
Analysts are divided on how Bitcoin will play out in 2026. Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan tipped in July that 2026 would be an “up year” for Bitcoin.
However, financial analyst Andrew Lokenauth said in an X post on Tuesday that “2026 will likely be a bear market, similar to prior midterm years.”
For nearly a decade, the rivalry between Zcash (ZEC) and Monero (XMR) defined the crypto privacy movement.
The two digital assets promised what Bitcoin couldn’t: true transactional anonymity, but they took very different paths to achieve it. Monero made privacy mandatory, encrypting every transaction by default. Zcash made it optional, allowing users to choose between full transparency and complete privacy.
That choice seemed to hurt Zcash for years. Monero’s uncompromising design has earned it the loyalty of cypherpunks, darknet users, and privacy maximalists, who view ZEC’s “opt-in” model as a compromise.
However, as regulatory scrutiny tightened and exchanges began delisting privacy tokens, Zcash’s hybrid model has evolved from a weakness to a weapon.
This fall, Zcash flipped Monero in market capitalization for the first time in seven years, reclaiming the “privacy crown.” Data from CoinGecko shows ZEC now holds a $7.5 billion market cap, compared to Monero’s $6.3 billion, ranking it among the top 20 cryptocurrencies globally.
Zcash vs. Monero Market Cap. (Source: CoinGecko)
The shift marks not just a leaderboard reshuffle but a more profound narrative reversal. The very architecture that once made Zcash controversial, its balance between privacy and compliance, is now attracting institutional money, ETF links, and mainstream legitimacy.
From Cypherpunk to Compliant
Zcash was launched in 2016 by the Electric Coin Company (ECC) under the leadership of cypherpunk founder Zooko Wilcox. The mission was to address Bitcoin’s biggest flaw: the traceability of its transactions.
Using advanced zero-knowledge proofs (zk-SNARKs), Zcash allowed users to fully encrypt sender, receiver, and amount data while still proving validity to the network.
However, the protocol introduced a novel flexibility which allowed users to opt for transparent (T-address) or shielded (Z-address) transactions. That optionality alienated privacy purists, but it made the project easier to regulate because crypto exchanges could list ZEC, as it wasn’t fully anonymous by default.
On the other hand, Monero, created in 2014, went the opposite direction. It enforced privacy across the board through ring signatures and stealth addresses, making every transaction opaque and untraceable. For years, this gave Monero dominance in the privacy sector, making it a currency immune to chain analysis.
But Monero’s strength has also become its Achilles’ heel. Because every transaction is private, the network remains under regulatory siege. It has been delisted from several major exchanges, including Binance, OKX, and Huobi, due to concerns regarding anti-money laundering (AML) regulations.
Zcash, meanwhile, continues to trade freely on compliant platforms, and that accessibility now matters more than purity.
The 51% moment that changed everything
The tipping point for the two privacy-focused blockchain networks occurred in mid-2025, when the AI-based protocol Qubic claimed to have gained majority control of Monero’s hashing power, a 51% attack that shook confidence in the network.
The attackers allegedly reorganized six blocks and orphaned dozens of others, effectively rewriting parts of the blockchain’s recent history.
A few weeks later, independent monitors reported another 18-block reorganization, the largest in Monero’s history. Although no double-spend occurred, the events revealed structural fragility.
For investors and exchanges, this confirmed long-standing fears: Monero’s commitment to anonymity made it harder to secure and audit.
Zcash, by contrast, had quietly built a more modern governance and upgrade framework through ECC, the Zcash Foundation, and Zashi, its consumer wallet project.
That stability, combined with a perception of regulatory friendliness, created the perfect backdrop for Zcash’s return.
How Zcash rallied
Zcash’s rally didn’t happen in isolation. Over the past year, privacy tokens have surged amid a broader backlash to global surveillance measures, from the EU’s MiCA digital ID rules to the UK’s data-sharing proposals.
Amid this climate, investors rediscovered ZEC. The token surged nearly 200% in a month and 1,000% year-on-year, reaching a seven-year high of $478 before a minor correction to $461. Unlike past speculative pumps, this move had institutional depth behind it.
Grayscale’s Zcash Trust (ZCSH) returned 90% in September alone, while open interest in ZEC has reached a new all-time high of nearly $700 million.
Market participants interpreted these inflows as early signs of a “regulated privacy trade”: exposure to cryptographic privacy without the legal baggage of Monero.
Considering this, Arthur Hayes, CIO of Maelstrom, predicted that the token could reach $10,000 while describing Zcash as the “clean privacy bet.”
Moreover, Zcash’s latest momentum is rooted in genuine technical progress.
In its October 2025 roadmap, the ECC outlined several upgrades aimed at simplifying and securing private transactions.
The plan introduced ephemeral addresses for every swap via the NEAR Intents protocol, automatic address rotation once funds are received, hardware resync capabilities for Keystone wallets, and multisig Pay-to-Script-Hash (P2SH) support to better safeguard developer funds.
Zcash’s Roadmap (Source: Electric Coin Company)
Together, these improvements streamline how users interact with ZEC through the Zashi wallet, which debuted earlier this year. Once criticized for its complex privacy workflows, Zcash’s interface now functions with the ease of mainstream crypto wallets, thereby removing a significant usability barrier.
Perhaps most notably, over 30% of the total ZEC supply now resides in shielded pools, indicating that privacy usage is catching up with market speculation.
As more transactions move into these encrypted channels, Zcash’s overall anonymity set expands, strengthening both its privacy guarantees and the network’s long-term resilience.
The spot Solana ETFs start strong by drawing over $400 million in weekly inflows.
SOL broke its 211-day uptrend, slipping below key moving averages.
Failure to hold $155 could send SOL price into the $120–$100 range.
Spot Solana (SOL) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) start their trading journey with strength, posting record positive inflows that underscored institutional demand for the network’s native asset.
On Monday, spot SOL ETFs recorded a daily high of $70 million in inflows, the strongest since launch, taking the total spot ETF inflows to $269 million since its debut on Oct. 28.
Spot SOL ETF flow: Source: Farside.co.uk
Data from Bitwise indicated that two Solana ETFs, Bitwise’s BSOL US Equity and Grayscale’s GSOL US Equity, collectively attracted $199.2 million in net inflows (excluding seed capital) during their first week.
Bitwise’s BSOL ETF led the charge, amassing $401 million in assets under management (AUM) by Oct. 31. That figure represented over 9% of total global SOL ETP AUM and 91% of global SOL ETP flows last week. In contrast, Grayscale’s GSOL US Equity drew only $2.18 million, accounting for roughly 1% of total ETP flows.
Total SOL ETP net weekly flows: Source: Bitwise
Globally, weekly net inflows into Solana ETPs surpassed $400 million, marking the second-highest weekly inflow on record. Bitwise’s Solana Staking ETF (BSOL) was also the top-performing crypto ETP globally, ranking 16th among all ETPs across asset classes for the week.
Currently, the total Solana ETP AUM stands at $4.37 billion, with US-listed products accounting for the majority of new investment. According to Bitwise’s estimates, a $1 billion net inflow could correspond to a potential 34% increase in SOL’s price, assuming a beta sensitivity of 1.5.
Solana price breaks key downtrend: Will it drop another 20%?
Despite the record inflows, SOL’s price action turned sharply bearish this week, falling over 16%, dropping to $148.11 on Tuesday, its lowest level since July 9. The correction also broke a 211-day uptrend that began on April 7, with the $95 level serving as the yearly low.
Solana is currently testing a daily order block between $170 and $156, an area with limited support. The downturn has pushed the price below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMAs, signaling potential bearish confirmation on the daily chart.
With liquidity lows around $155 now being tested, SOL could stage a mean reversion recovery if buyers defend this zone, especially as the relative strength index (RSI) hits its lowest level since March 2025.
However, acceptance below $160 and a failure to hold $155 could expose the next downside target between $120 and $100, marking a deeper correction phase unless a short-term rebound materializes soon.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
For years, Ripple was best known for its legal battles and its token, XRP, which was a symbol of crypto’s friction with the traditional financial world.
Now, after years of courtroom and regulatory turbulence, Ripple has quietly built something far more ambitious: a full-stack institutional financial platform that resembles a 21st-century investment bank, albeit without a bank charter yet.
With the launch of Ripple Prime, the firm’s new digital-asset brokerage, and the integration of Ripple Payments and Ripple Custody, Ripple is positioning itself at the center of a growing network that settles, secures, and moves digital money globally.
Together, these components form an ecosystem where every transaction, settlement, and custody layer runs on Ripple’s own rails and is powered by XRP and RLUSD, its regulated dollar-backed stablecoin.
From token issuer to financial infrastructure behemoth
Its 2025 acquisition spree, including prime broker Hidden Road, custody firm Palisade, treasury-management platform GTreasury, and stablecoin payments provider Rail, now forms the foundation of a vertically integrated enterprise spanning trading, custody, payments, and liquidity management.
Ripple Prime acts as the trading front end. Ripple Custody secures institutional assets through a mix of multi-party computation (MPC) and zero-trust architecture.
Ripple Payments handles real-time settlements across multiple blockchains and fiat corridors. And Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin ties it all together as the universal medium of exchange across these services.
In effect, Ripple has built a crypto-native equivalent of JPMorgan. This would be an entity that provides liquidity, clearing, and settlement without relying on legacy banking infrastructure.
The difference is that Ripple’s rails are programmable and transparent, with every dollar and XRP token accounted for on-chain.
A closed loop of liquidity and trust
What makes Ripple’s strategy distinct from its competitors is how deeply integrated its internal ecosystem has become.
Ripple’s liquidity design is intentionally circular: institutional clients trade through Ripple Prime, store assets in Ripple Custody, and settle payments via Ripple Payments, all using XRP and RLUSD as the connective tissue.
The result is a closed liquidity loop that reduces friction, improves velocity, and keeps value circulating within Ripple’s own ecosystem.
Notably, this mirrors the “walled-garden” model that Apple perfected in consumer tech, which gives it control over every layer, from hardware to App Store.
Ripple is applying the same principle to institutional finance. By owning the rails, the currency, and the custody, it ensures compliance, speed, and cost efficiency across its product stack.
Already, Ripple’s approach is showing results.
XRP trading volume has surged to multi-year highs this year amid significant adoption, while RLUSD’s supply surpassed $1 billion in November, up more than 30% month-on-month.
Ripple RLUSD Supply (Source: DeFiLlama)
Interestingly, a large portion of that demand came from institutional counterparties using RLUSD to hedge exposure and settle cross-border obligations.
Notably, Ripple’s pursuit of regulatory credibility is deepening that trust.
The company has formally applied for a national bank charter from the US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC). If approved, it would operate under both state (NYDFS) and federal oversight.
At the same time, Ripple has also moved to secure a Federal Reserve Master Account through its subsidiary, Standard Custody. This access would enable RLUSD reserves to be held directly with the Fed, eliminating intermediary risk and providing an additional layer of assurance.
For institutional investors wary of opaque reserve practices, that combination could set a new benchmark for stablecoin transparency and trust.
The end of banking as we know it
Ripple’s broader vision seems clear: to replicate the core functions of a global bank using crypto infrastructure.
Where legacy banks rely on SWIFT messages and multi-day settlements, Ripple offers near-instant clearance through its blockchain-based payment rails.
Where banks use custodians and clearinghouses, Ripple embeds custody and settlement directly into its protocol stack. And where banks issue credit and manage liquidity, Ripple deploys its native stablecoin, RLUSD, to fill the same role, but backed by short-term Treasuries and cash rather than loans.
Ripple executives frame this evolution not as a rebellion against traditional finance but as its modernization. Brad Garlinghouse, Ripple’s CEO, said:
“[Ripple is] pursuing opportunities to massively transform the space, leveraging our unique position and strengths of XRP to accelerate our business and enhance our current solutions and technology.”
With these layers in place, Ripple is effectively bridging the gap between regulated finance and decentralized settlement. Its infrastructure already supports tokenized real-world assets (RWAs), enabling on-chain representations of Treasuries and corporate cash to move as seamlessly as data packets.
Beyond XRP: a broader financial empire
Ripple’s future no longer depends on XRP’s market performance. The token remains a liquidity bridge, but the company’s core business is now infrastructure and institutional adoption.
Its acquisition of GTreasury opened doors to thousands of Fortune 500 treasurers managing trillions in short-term assets, giving RLUSD a direct entry into corporate cash management.
By embedding RLUSD in these workflows, it could evolve from an exchange token into a mainstream treasury instrument used for payments, yield optimization, and liquidity management.
Each layer of Ripple’s stack strengthens the others: custody secures funds, Prime provides liquidity, Payments facilitates capital movement, and RLUSD underpins it all.
With the pending OCC charter and potential Fed account, Ripple edges closer to becoming the first blockchain-native institution with bank-grade authority. In effect, it is building a “bank without a bank,” operating entirely within the scope of US financial law.
Ripple President Monica Long framed the company’s mission succinctly. According to her, the company is focused on modernizing how value moves across borders by replacing legacy systems built on “walled gardens” and fragmented payment rails with open, interoperable infrastructure.
She noted that while decentralized finance has so far mainly catered to crypto-native users, Ripple sees an opportunity to extend its benefits to the broader financial system and dismantle those long-standing barriers.
This effectively means that the company that once fought for XRP’s legitimacy would now be shaping the architecture of regulated crypto finance. However, whether it rivals Wall Street or merges with it, Ripple’s next chapter suggests the same conclusion: the future of banking may not belong to banks at all.
The Independent Community Bankers of America (ICBA) is coming out against cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase’s application for a National Trust Company Charter in the US — a move that could threaten banks’ interests as the company moves closer to traditional finance.
In a Monday letter to the US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) — the office responsible for approving banking applications — the ICBA said it “strongly opposes” Coinbase’s subsidiary applying for a trust charter. The letter cited “untested” elements related to crypto custody, as well as claims that Coinbase’s arm would “struggle to achieve and maintain profitability during crypto bear markets.”
“Imagine opposing a regulated trust charter because you prefer crypto to stay… unregulated,” said Coinbase chief legal officer Paul Grewal in a Tuesday X post. “That’s ICBA’s position. It’s another case of bank lobbyists trying to dig regulatory moats to protect their own.”
Coinbase applied for a national trust charter in October as part of its plans to “bridge the gap between the crypto economy and traditional financial system.” Reports suggested that the OCC could take between 12 and 18 months to review the crypto exchange’s application.
The ICBA letter urged the OCC to deny Coinbase’s application, or, alternatively, allow for more time for public review of the company’s business plan and the “legal, prudential, and public interest implications.”
Cointelegraph reached out to the OCC for comment, but had not received a response at the time of publication.
Crypto companies await notice from US regulators
Although Coinbase said it had “no intention of becoming a bank” through its application with the OCC, other crypto companies, such as Ripple Labs and Circle, have applied for national bank charters. The moves followed the US government passing legislation to establish a framework for payment stablecoins — both Ripple and Circle have issued their own stablecoins, Ripple USD (RLUSD) and USDC (USDC).
The OCC was scheduled to end its review of Ripple’s application last week, but as of Tuesday, the government department had not publicly announced any decision. Cointelegraph reached out to Ripple for comment, but had not received a response at the time of publication.
Bitcoin traded at $100,640.15 as of press time, down 5.6% in the past 24 hours, after briefly losing the $100,000 price threshold on Binance futures for the first time since June 23.
The sell-off wiped billions from the broader crypto market as traders confronted a three-month high in the dollar, equity weakness, and a four-day streak of spot ETF outflows totaling roughly $1.34 billion.
The dollar index rose to 100.215, up 0.3% over the past 24 hours, as markets reassessed the likelihood of near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Equity markets retreated after major bank CEOs warned of a potential 10% to 15% correction in stock prices. This combination of a stronger greenback and risk-off sentiment in traditional markets typically compresses the risk premium in cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin’s correlation to tech equities and its sensitivity to dollar strength placed it directly in the path of the macro shift.
US spot Bitcoin ETF flows turned decisively negative over the past four sessions, with cumulative outflows reaching approximately $1.34 billion, according to data from Farside Investors.
The most recent trading day saw roughly $186.5 million exit the products, with BlackRock’sIBIT accounting for the entirety of the outflows while competing ETFs registered zero net activity.
The sustained withdrawal pattern reflects institutional repositioning as traders weighed macro conditions against Bitcoin’s valuation near six-figure levels.
Leverage magnified the downturn across crypto derivatives markets. According to Coinglass data, $1.3 billion in futures positions were liquidated in the past 24 hours, with long positions accounting for about $1.1 billion of the total. That was the second consecutive day with over $1 billion in liquidations.
The forced unwinding of leveraged bets accelerated Bitcoin’s descent, creating cascading sell pressure that pushed the asset closer to the $100,000 support level.
Futures markets often amplify spot moves during periods of high volatility, and the scale of the washout ranks among the most significant liquidation events in recent weeks.
Altcoins follow Bitcoin lower
The broader crypto market mirrored Bitcoin’s losses, with major tokens posting single-digit percentage declines.
Ethereum traded at $3,328.12, down 8% in the past 24 hours, while BNB fell 7.7% to $917.20. Solana dropped 7% to $154.48, and XRP declined 5% to $2.18. Dogecoin slipped 6.3% to $0.1570, and Cardano lost 6.7% to trade at $0.5153.
The sell-off unfolded against a backdrop of renewed security concerns in the decentralized finance sector.
The Balancer V2 exploit, which drained between $110 million and $128 million across multiple chains, and Berachain’s subsequent emergency network halt and hard fork kept sentiment cautious across protocols and tokens.
While DeFi incidents typically contain their damage to specific ecosystems, the timing of the exploits added a soft headwind to crypto markets already contending with macro pressure and negative flows.
Bitcoin’s losing the $100,000 level arrives as the convergence of dollar strength, equity weakness, institutional outflows, and derivatives liquidations created a technical setup that overwhelmed near-term support.
Bitcoin Market Data
At the time of press 6:54 pm UTC on Nov. 4, 2025, Bitcoin is ranked #1 by market cap and the price is down 5.78% over the past 24 hours. Bitcoin has a market capitalization of $2.01 trillion with a 24-hour trading volume of $92.39 billion. Learn more about Bitcoin ›
Crypto Market Summary
At the time of press 6:54 pm UTC on Nov. 4, 2025, the total crypto market is valued at at $3.35 trillion with a 24-hour volume of $239.71 billion. Bitcoin dominance is currently at 60.16%. Learn more about the crypto market ›
Crypto Twitter is filled with claims that “everyone is buying Bitcoin”, from Michael Saylor and BlackRock to entire countries and even banks.
Yet despite the accumulation narratives, Bitcoin’s price has slipped sharply, breaking below key levels as ETF flows turned negative.
The contradiction between bullish headlines and falling prices emphasizes a crucial point: in markets driven by liquidity and marginal flow, who’s actually buying, and when, matters far more than who says they are.
Bitcoin fell through $106,400 as spot ETF flows turned negative over four consecutive sessions. The shift came as BlackRock’s IBIT logged redemptions over the last four days, totaling $714.8 million, removing a significant source of daily demand right as a widely watched cycle pivot gave way.
According to Farside Investors, the outflows of $88.1 million, $290.9 million, $149.3 million, and then $186.5 million coincided with the breakdown. They forced selling by authorized participants who redeemed shares for underlying Bitcoin and offloaded them into the market.
Thus, the net flow flipped. When creations slow and redemptions rise across the U.S. spot ETF complex, the daily bid that helped absorb volatility turns into a source of supply.
Mid-October saw stretches of net outflows across digital asset funds as Bitcoin battled to stay above $106,400. While there were brief inflow days late in the month, the most recent run tilted back into the red, a pattern that aligns with the IBIT prints captured above.
The mechanical impact matters because ETF flow translates into spot buys or sells, and the timing overlaps with a break of a level that many traders use to distinguish a late-cycle pullback from a trend resumption.
Derivatives added pressure.
The CME three-month futures premium has cooled to roughly 4 to 5 percent annualized over the back half of the year, curbing carry-trade incentives that pull institutional basis demand into rallies.
At the same time, funding on perpetual swaps turned softer or negative at points, a setup that accelerates down moves when longs de-risk and liquidations cluster.
In these conditions, slow, scheduled spot accumulation from corporates or sovereign entities does not offset forced unwinds on leverage or redemptions on regulated products that translate directly to spot sells.
Macro has not eased the path. The U.S. Dollar Index rebounded toward the 98-100 area in November after a weak first half, while the U.S. 10-year yield, near 4.1 percent, keeps real rates restrictive.
A firmer dollar and tight real yields tend to compress global liquidity and weigh on long-duration risk, and bitcoin continues to respond to those impulses at tactical horizons. When flows are roughly flat, the dollar often decides whether a bounce holds or fades.
Supply narratives also persist. The Mt. Gox rehabilitation timeline was extended again to October 31, 2026, following partial distributions earlier this year, which keeps a recurring overhang in focus, even if actual sales are staggered.
Periodic trustee updates and wallet movements have repeatedly tightened risk tolerance on rebounds. Miners remain another valve.
Post-halving economics has also left hashprice near cycle lows relative to the spring spike. That backdrop creates ongoing incentives for treasury monetization on stress days, which can align with soft funding to add procyclical pressure.
Bitcoin hashprice (Source: Luxor)
The cycle framing ties these pieces together.
I recently called $126,000 as the cycle high and $106,400 as the bull-bear pivot.
The price just lost that pivot as the ETF bid turned into net selling, while basis stayed subdued and funding cooled.
Interestingly, common on-chain and cycle monitors, such as the 2-Year MA Multiplier, Pi Cycle Top, and RHODL, have failed to reach euphoria this cycle, even near the highs. Metrics are already slipping toward distribution and mean reversion as flow support has faded.
This could mean the bull run will be extended this cycle, or it could represent diminishing returns when compared to prior cycle transitions.
RHODL Ratio (Source: Bitcoin Magazine)
These tools are not standalone timing devices. Still, when they align with daily flow inflection and macro stiffness, traders tend to withdraw liquidity, which amplifies the impact of incremental sells.
Why is the price falling if BlackRock, corporates, or countries are buying? The flow math provides a direct response.
Nation-state purchases are episodic and small compared to daily turnover, and corporate treasuries operate on idiosyncratic schedules.
Banks often facilitate client activity rather than deploying balance-sheet risk daily. None of those actors offset a week where issuers that normally create shares instead redeem, funding drifts toward or below zero, and the dollar firms. The marginal seller rules the tape in that mix.
The near-term path depends on whether spot creations reappear and the basis expands. A continued run of net outflow days from the largest U.S. spot ETFs, especially IBIT and FBTC, with CME basis pinned near or below 5 percent annualized and funding flat to negative, would keep the market in a distribution phase.
Under that setup, failing to reclaim $106,400 leaves $100,000 as the battleground and opens the mid to high $90,000s on further red sessions, particularly if the macro stays tight.
A more neutral outcome, with oscillating but smaller flows, a basis stabilizing in the 5-7 percent zone, and a range-bound dollar around 97-100, argues for digestion between $100,000 and $106,000 while liquidity rebuilds.
The upside case requires a return of multi-day net creations in the $300 to $800 million range across the complex, based on pushing above 8 to 10 percent, and a softer dollar.
That mix would allow a retest of $110,000 to $115,000 and reopen the debate around the cycle top if flows persist.
One way to track the state of play is to focus on daily issuer-level flows, then layer in derivatives and macroeconomic factors.
How to tell if the Bitcoin bull run is still going
ETF Flows (Farside data): Sustained multi-day creations from major issuers like BlackRock’s IBIT or Fidelity’s FBTC signal renewed demand. Continued redemptions or flat prints, on the other hand, confirm the bid has turned into supply.
Fund Flows (CoinShares report): Broad inflows across the digital asset fund universe, especially when led by Bitcoin, indicate institutional rotation back into risk. Persistent outflows or concentration in defensive alt products point to capital retreat.
Leverage Conditions (CME basis and funding): A rising basis (above ~7–8% annualized) and positive, stable funding suggest appetite for directional risk, typical in active bull phases. A flat or negative setup implies deleveraging and distribution.
Macro Liquidity (DXY and 10-year yield): A weaker dollar (DXY
Mining Supply Pressure (Hashprice trends): Rising hashprice and stable or falling miner selling will hint that the market is absorbing new supply comfortably, bullish behavior. Collapsing hashprice or spikes in miner transfers to exchanges often mark stress points within uptrends.
The last four trading days flipped the spot-ETF bid into a sustained net seller, exactly as Bitcoin lost its pivot. With CME basis subdued and funding soft, the marginal price was driven by de-risking rather than dip-buying.
A firmer USD and sticky real yields rounded out a flow-led break, not a referendum on long-term adoption. Until daily creations return and $ 106,400 is reclaimed, this remains a distribution-and-digest phase within the broader cycle.
IBIT flow date
Net flow (USD millions)
Oct 29
-88.1
Oct 30
-290.9
Oct 31
-149.3
Nov 03
-186.5
Total
-714.8
Lastly, unless the historic Bitcoin cycle pattern has been disrupted by the influx of corporate treasuries and ETF flows, then Father Time has already spoken.
If Bitcoin were to reach a new all-time high by the end of the year or in 2026, it would mark the latest cycle high ever.
Bitcoin miner CleanSpark expanded its power capacity by 28% in October as part of a broader push beyond crypto mining into artificial intelligence and high-performance computing (HPC).
The US-based company said it had acquired 271 acres near Houston, Texas, securing 285 megawatts of long-term power for a dedicated AI data center. The move marks one of CleanSpark’s largest steps yet to diversify its operations as demand for energy-intensive computing continues to surge.
CleanSpark’s AI move also led to a new partnership with Submer, a company that offers cooling solutions for data centers.
“While Bitcoin remains an integral part of our business, we’re equally focused on developing large-scale data centers that will power the next generation of innovation across the digital world,” said Matt Schultz, CleanSpark’s CEO and chairman.
Top Bitcoin mining companies by market capitalization. Source: CompaniesMarketCap
CleanSpark mined 612 Bitcoin (BTC) in October and sold 589.9 BTC for about $64.9 million, averaging $110,057 per coin. The company ended the month holding 13,033 BTC, underscoring its steady accumulation despite regular sales to fund operations.
CleanSpark is part of a growing wave of Bitcoin miners pivoting toward AI and data infrastructure, using their access to low-cost power and existing facilities to host GPU workloads and capture more stable, diversified revenue beyond Bitcoin.
HIVE Digital was among the early miners to diversify, starting its move into AI and high-performance computing in mid-2023 and now earning a growing share of revenue from those operations.
In August, Bitcoin miner MARA Holdings agreed to acquire a 64% stake in Exaion, a subsidiary of French energy giant Électricité de France (EDF), in a $168 million deal aimed at expanding into low-carbon AI infrastructure.
The same month, TeraWulf signed a 10-year, $3.7 billion hosting deal with Fluidstack, backed by Google. The partnership will add over 200 megawatts of new IT capacity to TeraWulf’s New York data centers.
On Monday, IREN signed a GPU cloud services contract with Microsoft valued at $9.7 billion. Under the five-year deal, Microsoft will gain access to Nvidia GB300 GPUs housed in IREN’s data centers.
In an exclusive interview with Cointelegraph, veteran economist and gold advocate Peter Schiff issued one of his starkest warnings yet about Bitcoin’s future, and the powerful forces he believes have inflated it.
Schiff argues that the latest Bitcoin (BTC) bull market isn’t organic, but rather propped up by political influence in Washington, DC and Wall Street’s self-interest. Despite being proven wrong multiple times in the past, Schiff is doubling down on his statement that Bitcoin is a “bubble” and will eventually “go to zero.”
The economist challenges the mainstream narrative that Bitcoin protects investors from inflation or dollar weakness, warning instead that the same institutions Bitcoin was meant to disrupt are now the ones keeping it alive.
That support, Schiff suggests, may soon disappear.
Is Bitcoin’s rise a result of political influence and therefore destined to collapse? And could gold reclaim its role as the true store of value in a time of financial instability?
Watch the full exclusive interview on Cointelegraph’s YouTube channel to hear Peter Schiff’s unfiltered take on Bitcoin, gold, and why he believes the “Bitcoin bubble” is nearing its end.
Bittensor’s token plunged 16% in 24 hours to hit lows of $389.
Losses for the top artificial intelligence coin came amid profit-taking following a recent spike.
Fed’s hawkish stance, the Balancer exploit, and AI-capital rotation has fueled risk-off sentiment.
Bittensor’s native token, TAO, has tumbled 16% over the past 24 hours, dipping to lows of $389 as it outpaced the artificial intelligence sector’s overall decline of 9%.
Losses for Bittensor came as Bitcoin slipped to near $100,000, and the total market capitalization dropped to under $3.4 trillion.
While analysts remain bullish for BTC and the broader market, investors are grappling with a confluence of macroeconomic pressures.
Sector-specific headwinds are also in play and could add to declines driven by panic selling.
Bittensor’s TAO plunges amid profit-taking
Bittensor is a decentralized machine learning protocol that incentivizes collaborative AI model training through its blockchain.
The native token TAO’s price has outperformed recently, tapping into gains for AI-related stocks like Nvidia.
However, the token’s value cratered to $3.89, marking a 16% intraday loss.
Bulls have attempted a recovery, but the price hovers at $400, down from highs of $488.
Meanwhile, trading volume surged 17% to $712 million, a scenario that reflects the heightened panic selling.
Like across the broader market, this comes as retail and institutional holders liquidate positions on jitters around the waning AI-driven rally.
The plunge appears exacerbated by profit-taking following the launch of Europe’s first staked TAO exchange-traded product (ETP) by Safello.
It initially sparked a major rally, but bulls have since failed to sustain momentum.
Broader crypto market sell-off
The cryptocurrency ecosystem has suffered a substantial loss, with over $250 billion evaporating in market value within 24 hours, culminating in a 5.8% contraction in overall market capitalisation to $3.4 trillion.
Bittensor’s underperformance against Bitcoin, down 6% to near $100,000, and top altcoins, in relative terms, highlights TAO’s vulnerability in a risk-off environment.
Multiple closes below the 50W would confirm the top being in as it always has each cycle.
Regardless of whether the top is in, or if we go slightly higher, I still think 2026 will be a bear market, just like all prior midterm years. pic.twitter.com/4T9fAsQchs
“The latest $128M Balancer exploit is a reminder of something fundamental: most smart contracts today rely on audit-based hope. Developers write complex code, auditors review it, and everyone hopes there are no hidden logic flaws. But hope isn’t assurance,”Bitcoin finance platform Blockstream noted on X.
