Long-term investors have been selling 45,000 ETH daily, increasing sell-side pressure.
Ether’s 50-week EMA and bear flag breakdown target $2,500.
Ether’s (ETH) drop toward $3,000 on Friday was preceded by a significant amount of offloads from long-term holders, which some analysts said may lead to a deeper price correction.
Long-term holders are offloading
Ether long-term holders, entities holding ETH (ETH) for more than 155 days, have intensified their sell-side activity as the price dropped below key support levels.
Analyzing ETH spent volume by age, using a 90-day moving average, Glassnode analysts said that 45,000 ETH, worth about $140 million, is leaving three-to-10-year holder wallets daily.
“This marks the highest spending level by seasoned investors since February 2021.”
Ethereum spent volume by age. Source: Glassnode
This aligns with a surge in spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETF) outflows, which further suppresses ETH price. These investment products recorded $259 million in net outflows on Thursday, marking their worst day since Oct. 10, according to data from SoSoValue.
A cumulative net outflow of $1.42 billion from Ethereum ETFs since early November signals strong institutional selling pressure, fueling fears of a deeper correction.
Ethereum onchain data signals waning demand
Onchain activity over the last seven days paints a worrying picture. While Ethereum continues to lead its competitors, securing roughly 56% of the market’s total value locked (TVL), this metric has dropped by 21% over the last 30 days, according to DefiLlama.
Even more concerning is the decline in network fees, reflecting waning demand for blockspace, which reinforces Ether’s price weakness around $3,000.
Top blockchains ranked by 30-day fees, USD. Source: Nansen
Ethereum’s fees over the past 30 days dropped to $27.54 million on Friday, representing a 42% decrease. Solana’s fees declined just 9.8% while BNB Chain revenue dropped by 45%, reinforcing the bearishness in the market.
Many analysts warn that the current downtrend could accelerate unless a clear bullish shift occurs, possibly adding pressure on day traders and small holders.
“Ethereum loses the 50-week EMA, a key macro support,” said analyst Bitcoinsensus in a Friday X post, referring to the $3,350 level.
Past breakdowns triggered major downside moves, with the last one resulting in a 60% drop to $1,380 from $3,400 between late January and early April.
Bitcoinsensus added:
“Trend remains bearish unless price reclaims this level fast.”
Ether’s price action in the daily time frame has validated a bear flag once it broke below $3,450, coinciding with the 200-day SMA and the lower boundary of a bear flag.
The next major support sits at the $3,000 psychological level, which bulls must defend aggressively.
Losing this level would clear the way for a fresh downward leg toward the measured target of the pattern at $2,280, or a 23% drop from the current level.
As Cointelegraph reported, $3,000 remains a key support zone for the ETH/USD pair, and holding it is crucial to avoiding further losses.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
The average investor still hasn’t reached a clear consensus on which crypto assets beyond the top two warrant serious attention, according to Anthony Bassili, president of Coinbase Asset Management.
“There’s a very, very clear view in the investor community in terms of the right first portfolio is Bitcoin. The next is Bitcoin, Ethereum,” Bassili said during an interview with Cointelegraph at The Bridge conference in New York City on Wednesday.
Bassili pointed out that Solana (SOL) is “maybe” the third asset on the radar. “The market is very unsure as to what’s the next asset they want to own after that,” he said, adding that after Solana, there is a “very wide gap” with XRP (XRP).
Bassili says the fourth position is still up in the air
“We have to see the product market fit of the next network or the next application that will enter that fourth position,” he added.
Bassili said that despite XRP “doing a great job at execution,” investors need to see more network velocity. “So you actually need to see them being a part of the liquidity ecosystem,” he said.
Anthony Bassili spoke to Cointelegraph at The Bridge conference in New York City on Wednesday. Source: Cointelegraph
On Thursday, Canary Capital’s XRP ETF closed its first day with $58 million in trading volume, marking the most successful ETF debut of 2025 among both crypto and traditional ETFs.
Bassili pointed out the significant progress on Ripple’s side, including acquisitions of a custodian, a stablecoin orchestration layer, and a broker-dealer.
Bassili says XRP is “taking all the right steps”
“So they’re taking all the right steps. The question is, you know, does the market think that they’re ready, you know, to be that next top four asset,” Bassili said.
Bassili emphasized that while crypto markets often price assets based on narrative and speculation, a closer look at cash flows can quickly change the perception.
“You’ll see the market doesn’t price things really well, because it starts actually becoming more realistic,” he said.
Cryptocurrency markets have extended their decline despite much-awaited political developments taking place in the US.
On Wednesday, President Donald Trump signed a funding bill to end the record 43-day US government shutdown, after the bill passed through the Senate on Monday and was approved by the House of Representatives on Wednesday.
The bill provides funding to the government until Jan. 30, 2026, and gives Democrats and Republicans more time to strike a deal on broader funding plans for the year ahead.
The end of the shutdown failed to lift demand among Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF) buyers. Spot BTC ETFs saw a brief resurgence on Tuesday, attracting $524 million in inflows, but outflows quickly resumed, with a whopping $866 million in daily net outflows on Thursday, according to Farside Investors.
Bitcoin fell to a six-month low of $95,900 on Friday, a level last seen in May as its biggest demand drivers continued to lack momentum.
Investments from ETFs and Michael Saylor’s Strategy were the two main vehicles driving demand for Bitcoin’s price this year, according to Ki Young Ju, founder and CEO of crypto analytics platform CryptoQuant.
BTC/USD, one-year chart. Source: Cointelegraph
Bitcoin ETF demand stalls as US shutdown optimism fails to lift sentiment
The lack of demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs is raising concerns about Bitcoin’s prospects for the rest of the year.
On Monday, the US Senate approved the funding bill and brought Congress a step closer to ending the shutdown. The legislation headed for a full vote in the House of Representatives, which occurred on Wednesday.
Bitcoin ETF Flows, US dollars (in millions). Source: Farside Investors
“Despite the US shutdown seemingly ending, and the S&P and Gold bouncing hard, Bitcoin ETFs saw NO bid yesterday,” said Capriole Investments founder, Charles Edwards, adding that this is not a dynamic we want to see continue.
“Risk assets usually see a strong bid in the weeks out of the Shutdown. Still time to turn this ship around, but it needs to turn,” Edwards wrote in a Tuesday X post.
Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows were the primary driver of Bitcoin’s momentum in 2025, Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, Geoff Kendrick, told Cointelegraph recently.
Bitwise exec says 2026 will be crypto’s real bull year; here’s why
Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan is more confident that crypto markets will boom in 2026, particularly as there hasn’t been a late 2025 rally.
Speaking to Cointelegraph at The Bridge conference in New York City on Wednesday, Hougan said a crypto market rally at the end of 2025 would have fit the four-year cycle thesis, meaning 2026 would mark the start of a bear market, similar to 2022 and 2018.
When asked to revise his prediction about whether the crypto market will boom in 2026, Hougan said: “I’m actually more confident in that quote. The biggest risk was [if] we ripped into the end of 2025 and then we got a pullback.”
Hougan said interest in the Bitcoin debasement trade, stablecoins and tokenization would continue to accelerate, while arguing that Uniswap’s fee switch proposal introduced on Monday would reinvigorate interest in decentralized finance protocols in the coming year.
“I think the underlying fundamentals are just so sound,” Hougan said. “I think these earlier forces, institutional investment, regulatory progress, stablecoins, tokenization, I just think those are too big to keep down. So I think 2026 will be a good year.”
Matt Hougan at The Bridge conference in New York City. Source: Cointelegraph
Arthur Hayes tells Zcash holders to withdraw from CEXs and “shield” assets
The privacy coin sector returned to the spotlight after BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes urged Zcash holders to withdraw their assets from centralized exchanges (CEXs).
On Wednesday, Hayes told holders to “shield” their assets, a feature that enables private transactions within the Zcash network. “If you hold $ZEC on a CEX, withdraw it to a self-custodial wallet and shield it,” Hayes wrote on X.
The comments came as Zcash (ZEC) saw sharp price swings in the last few days. The token rallied to $723 on Saturday before dropping to $504 on Sunday. It then surged to a high of $677 on Monday, only to see another sharp decline. At the time of writing, ZEC was trading at about $450, marking a 37% decline from its Saturday high.
Analysts had warned that ZEC might undergo a sharp correction due to its relative strength index (RSI) reaching its highest reading after continuing to rally above its overbought zone.
Vitalik Buterin champions decentralization in “Trustless Manifesto”
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has authored and signed the new “Trustless Manifesto,” which seeks to uphold core values of decentralization and censorship resistance and push builders to refrain from adding intermediaries and checkpoints for the sake of adoption.
The Trustless Manifesto, also authored by Ethereum Foundation researchers Yoav Weiss and Marissa Posner, said crypto platforms sacrifice trustlessness from the first moment that they integrate a hosted node or centralized relayer, explaining that while it feels harmless, it becomes a habit, and with each passing checkpoint, the protocol becomes less and less permissionless.
“Trustlessness is not a feature to add after the fact. It is the thing itself,” the Ethereum Foundation members said in the manifesto published Wednesday. “Without it, everything else — efficiency, UX, scalability — is decoration on a fragile core.”
“When complexity tempts us to centralize, we must remember: every line of convenience code can become a choke point.”
While the manifesto wasn’t aimed at any particular person or company, some Ethereum layer 2s have been criticized for sacrificing decentralization to focus on scalability to speed up adoption.
Sonic Labs pivots from speed to survival with business-first strategy
Sonic Labs, the organization behind the Sonic layer-1 blockchain, announced a major strategic shift as it pivots from emphasizing transaction speed to building long-term business value and token sustainability.
After claiming industry-leading performance last year, Sonic Labs said its next chapter will focus on upgrades that deliver measurable financial outcomes, including new Ethereum and Sonic Improvement Proposals (EIPs and SIPs), token supply reductions and revamped rewards for network participants.
“Every decision we make moving forward will be guided by the principles of building real value, with price, growth, and sustainability always in focus,” said Mitchell Demeter, the new CEO of Sonic Labs.
The focus aims to bring “measurable, lasting value” for builders, validators and tokenholders, wrote Demeter in a Tuesday X post. “Our mission at Sonic is to move beyond hype and build a sustainable business model for a layer one, that creates, captures, and returns real value to tokenholders.”
The new fee monetization upgrade will include a tiered reward system for builders and fixed rewards for validators.
Sonic Labs will also increase the rate of programmatic Sonic (S) token burns, which means permanently removing tokens from circulation to tighten the supply.
Sonic claims to be the world’s fastest Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) chain, with a “true” finality of 720 milliseconds (ms) — the assurance that a transaction is irreversible, which occurs after it is added to a block on the blockchain ledger.
According to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, most of the 100 largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization ended the week in the red.
The privacy-preserving Dash (DASH) token fell 45% to stage the biggest decline in the top 100, followed by the Internet Computer (ICP) token, down over 27% on the weekly chart.
Total value locked in DeFi. Source: DefiLlama
Thanks for reading our summary of this week’s most impactful DeFi developments. Join us next Friday for more stories, insights and education regarding this dynamically advancing space.
WisdomTree’s head of digital assets, Will Peck, anticipates that exchange-traded funds (ETF) that hold diversified baskets of cryptocurrencies will fill a significant gap in the market in the coming years.
“It does seem like that’s going to be one of the next waves of adoption,” Peck told Cointelegraph at The Bridge conference in New York City on Wednesday. “It solves a need, I think,” he added.
Peck explained that although many new investors now understand the concept of Bitcoin (BTC), they often struggle to judge the “next 20 range of assets.” He said a multi-asset crypto basket provides them with exposure to the sector while mitigating the “idiosyncratic risk” of investing in individual tokens.
Will Peck says index ETF investors will be backing the tech
“Crypto we talked about as an asset class, but it’s really a technology, and the underlying return drivers of each of these tokens are actually quite different, even though they’re correlated, generally, just because that’s where the market is,” he explained.
Will Peck spoke to Cointelegraph at The Bridge conference in New York City on Wednesday. Source: Cointelegraph
It comes as several crypto index ETFs have launched this year. Most recently, on Thursday, asset manager 21Shares launched two crypto Index ETFs, which are regulated under the Investment Company Act of 1940.
Just a couple of months prior, on Sept. 25, asset manager Hashdex expanded its Crypto Index US ETF to include XRP (XRP), SOL (SOL), and Stellar (XLM), following the generic listing rule change from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Peck said the timing of broader adoption for crypto index ETFs is “tough exactly to forecast,” but suggested it may be inevitable given the straightforward utility of having a product that provides such exposure.
Peck expects a surge in new crypto ETF launches as ETF issuers compete for early advantage, which he said may erode the idea that an ETF automatically signals the cryptocurrency token has any authority or credibility.
Bitcoin ETF success “surpassed” Will Peck’s expectations
“I think it’s going to be a shift, like, where, five years ago, you said, Oh, if something has an ETF, like, Bitcoin is going to get one, maybe it’s the first one, it must have some sort of institutional stamp of, like, approval,” he said.
“I don’t think that’s necessarily how the SEC should be, a merit-based regulator in that regard, right? And it’s really going to be on clients making the right choices with their own money,” Peck added.
Meanwhile, Peck said that the “overall success” of spot Bitcoin ETFs since their launch in January 2024 has surpassed his expectations.
Bitcoin has broken below the psychological support at $100,000, opening the gates for a potential sell-off to $87,800.
Several major altcoins are approaching their support levels but have failed to bounce with strength, increasing the risk of a breakdown.
Bitcoin (BTC) appears weak in the near term as bears pull the price further below the psychological level at $100,000. BTC’s persistent weakness pulled the Crypto Fear & Greed Index into the “extreme fear” category with a score of 15//100 on Thursday, its lowest level since early March.
Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan said to Cointelegraph that had BTC rallied sharply into the end of 2025 and followed it up with a pullback, it would have fit the four-year-cycle thesis. The failure to do so sets up BTC for a good year in 2026, buoyed by positive underlying fundamentals.
Crypto market data daily view. Source: TradingView
Another bullish projection came from Santiment, which said in a post on X that the crowd turning negative on BTC suggests the point of capitulation is nearing. An “unexpected November rally” could happen as stronger hands scoop up the cryptocurrencies sold by weaker hands. It added that it was “not a matter of if, but when this will next happen.”
How far lower could BTC and the major altcoins fall? Let’s analyze the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
Bitcoin price prediction
Sellers are attempting to seize control by sustaining BTC below the psychological support of $100,000.
The downsloping 20-day exponential moving average ($104,850) and the relative strength index (RSI) near the oversold territory indicate that the path of least resistance is to the downside. Any recovery attempt is likely to face selling at the breakdown level of $100,000. If the price drops below $100,000, it signals that the bears have flipped the level into resistance. That suggests the resumption of the downtrend.
There is support at $92,000, but that could be broken. The BTC/USDT pair may then descend to $87,800. Buyers will have to push the price above $107,000 to indicate a potential trend change.
Ether price prediction
The failure of the bulls to push Ether (ETH) above the 20-day EMA ($3,567) attracted sellers on Thursday, pulling the price below the $3,350 support.
Sellers will strive to build upon their advantage by dragging the Ether price below the $3,050 support. If they can pull it off, the selling may accelerate and the ETH/USDT pair could plunge toward $2,500.
The bulls will have to push and maintain the price above the 20-day EMA to signal strength. The pair may then climb to the 50-day simple moving average ($3,930), where the bears are expected to step in.
XRP price prediction
Buyers again attempted to drive XRP (XRP) above the 50-day SMA ($2.56) on Thursday, but the bears held their ground.
The XRP/USDT pair could challenge the $2.06 support, which is at risk of breaking down. If that happens, the XRP price may plummet to $1.90 and thereafter to the crucial support at $1.61.
Any recovery attempt is expected to face selling at the 50-day SMA and then at the downtrend line. A close above the downtrend line signals that the bulls are back in the driver’s seat. The pair may then ascend to $3.20.
BNB price prediction
BNB (BNB) has been gradually dropping toward the $860 level, which is a critical near-term support level to watch.
The downsloping 20-day EMA ($1,004) and the RSI near the oversold zone suggest that the BNB/USDT pair risks a break below $860. If that happens, the BNB price could tumble toward $730.
Instead, if the price turns up sharply from $860 and breaks above the 20-day EMA, it points to a possible range formation. The pair could swing inside the large range between $860 and $1,183 for a while.
Solana price prediction
Solana (SOL) closed below the $155 level on Wednesday and extended the decline below the $145 support on Thursday.
There is minor support at $137, but it is likely to be broken. If that happens, the SOL/USDT pair could nosedive to $126 and eventually to the solid support at $110, where buyers are expected to step in.
The 20-day EMA ($166) remains the key overhead resistance level to watch out for. Buyers will have to pierce the 20-day EMA to signal a comeback. The Solana price could then rally to the 50-day SMA ($191).
Dogecoin price prediction
Dogecoin (DOGE) has been gradually sliding toward the lower end of the $0.14 to $0.29 range, indicating that selling pressure remains intact.
Buyers are expected to fiercely defend the $0.14 support, as a break below it could start a new downtrend toward the Oct. 10 low of $0.10.
Buyers have an uphill task ahead of them. They will have to swiftly push the Dogecoin price above the 20-day EMA ($0.17) to suggest that the selling pressure is weakening. The DOGE/USDT pair may then rally to $0.21. A close above the $0.21 resistance indicates that the pair may extend its stay inside the range for a few more days.
Cardano price prediction
Cardano (ADA) has dropped to the $0.50 level, where the buyers are expected to mount a spirited defense.
If the price turns up from the current level and rises above the 20-day EMA ($0.58), it suggests that selling pressure is reducing. The ADA/USDT pair could then rally to the 50-day SMA ($0.67) and later to $0.74.
Contrarily, if the price continues lower and breaks below $0.50, it signals the start of the next leg of the downtrend. The Cardano price could collapse to $0.40 and below that to the Oct. 10 intraday low of $0.27.
Both moving averages are sloping down, and the RSI is in the negative area, indicating that the bears hold an edge. If the $35.50 support level cracks, the HYPE/USDT pair could slump to $30.50 and later to $28.
The bulls will have to push and maintain the Hyperliquid price above the 50-day SMA ($42.23) to signal strength. The pair could then rally to $52, where the bears are expected to sell aggressively.
Chainlink price prediction
Chainlink (LINK) has gradually slipped near the vital support of $13.69, indicating a negative sentiment.
Sellers will try to resume the downward move by pulling the price below $13.69. If they succeed, the LINK/USDT pair could fall to $12.73 and subsequently to $10.94. Buyers are expected to defend the $10.94 level with all their might, as a break below it could sink the Chainlink price to $7.90.
The RSI is showing early signs of forming a positive divergence, but the bulls will have to push the price above the 20-day EMA ($16.05) to gain strength. The pair may then rally to the resistance line.
Bitcoin Cash price prediction
Buyers repeatedly attempted to push Bitcoin Cash (BCH) above the 50-day SMA ($529) in the past few days, but the bears did not budge.
The sellers are trying to pull the Bitcoin Cash price to the solid support at $443. If the price turns up from the current level or rebounds off the $443 level, the bulls will again try to clear the hurdle at the resistance line. If they manage to do that, the BCH/USDT pair could start a new uptrend to $580 and then $615.
Alternatively, a break below the $443 level opens the doors for a fall to the support line of the falling wedge pattern.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
Eric Trump, a son of US President Donald Trump and co-founder of American Bitcoin, is undeterred by the recent downturn in the cryptocurrency markets, saying that volatility is the cost of achieving outsized returns.
“I think volatility is your friend,” Trump told The Wall Street Journal in an interview, as Bitcoin (BTC) briefly fell below $95,000 and stood about 25% lower than its early-October peak.
The turbulence has been worse in the altcoin segment, with major assets down from 5% to 11% — part of a weakness that began with the Oct. 10 market crash, which wiped out some $19 billion in leveraged positions.
Overall, the crypto market has shed more than $1 trillion in combined market capitalization from its peak.
Trump is at least putting his philosophy into practice. American Bitcoin, the mining company he leads, which went public earlier this year through a reverse merger with Gryphon Digital Mining, added more than 3,000 BTC in the third quarter, bringing its total holdings to over 4,000 BTC.
American Bitcoin has entered the top 25 list of publicly listed Bitcoin holders following its Q3 acquisitions. Source: BitcoinTreasuries.NET
Trump has repeatedly emphasized increasing the company’s Bitcoin reserves, prioritizing metrics such as its Bitcoin-per-share ratio, which he argues will ultimately strengthen shareholder value.
The moves come amid the Donald Trump administration’s push for broader crypto adoption, highlighted by the January executive order on digital assets, the creation of a federal working group on crypto markets and the passage of key stablecoin legislation. Yet, the value of Bitcoin is little changed from its Jan. 1 price.
Steak ‘n Shake, a fast food restaurant company in the United States that accepts Bitcoin (BTC), announced on Saturday that it is expanding into El Salvador.
“We were honored to be in Bitcoin Country,” the company said in an X post following Steak ‘n Shake’s participation in the country’s Bitcoin Histórico event on Wednesday and Thursday.
Steak ‘n Shake started accepting BTC for payment at its stores in May, and the company’s chief operations officer, Dan Edwards, told Cointelegraph that the goal is to have BTC accepted at all of the company’s locations worldwide.
Steak ‘n Shake backtracks on accepting Ether as a payment method and celebrates Q3 sales
Steak ‘n Shake polled its followers on the X social media platform in October, asking whether it should accept Ether (ETH) as payment at its locations.
53% of the 48,815 followers polled voted in favor of the proposal, sparking significant backlash from the Bitcoin community.
“ETH is centralized garbage. Bitcoin is freedom. Doing this would lose you all your Bitcoiner business, including mine,” Bitcoin maximalist Ron Sovereignty Swanson said in response.
Although initially promising to “abide by the results” of the social media poll, Steak ‘n Shake backtracked on the proposal to accept ETH.
“Poll suspended. Our allegiance is with Bitcoiners. You have spoken. Who even allowed this? I’m back at my desk,” the company said on October 11 — the same day the poll was initiated.
Steak ‘n Shake leads the competition in same-store sales increase in Q3. Source: Steak ‘n Shake
In November, the company celebrated strong Q3 sales, touting a 15% quarter-over-quarter increase in same-store sales.
Steak ‘n Shake managed to lead all other competitors in the fast food category for same-store sales increases in Q3, including McDonald’s, Burger King, Taco Bell, and coffeehouse Starbucks.
The crypto market’s long-term fundamentals look promising, despite the shakeup in October and November that has left asset prices down and investor sentiment to crater, according to Hunter Horsley, CEO of investment firm Bitwise.
Horsley said the four-year market cycle is dead, replaced by a more mature market structure and changed dynamics due to the pro-crypto regulatory pivot in the US. He said in a Friday X post:
“Since the launch of the Bitcoin ETFs and new administration, we’ve entered a new market structure: new players, new dynamics, new reasons people buy and sell.
I think there’s a pretty good chance that we’ve been in a bear market for almost 6 months now and are almost through it. The setup for crypto right now has never been stronger,” Horsely added.
His comments offer a contrarian view to crypto investor sentiment, which dropped to its lowest level since February, as asset prices remain well below 2024 highs and fear grips the market.
Sentiment craters to “extreme fear” as analysts project where prices are headed
The “Crypto Fear and Greed Index,” a metric that gauges investor sentiment, is at 16 at the time of this writing, signaling “extreme fear,” according to CoinMarketCap.
Market analyst and CoinBureau founder Nuc Puckrin said that despite the 25% dip being the lowest correction-level drop during this cycle, compared to previous dips over 30%, investor sentiment has still cratered.
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index drops to 16, signaling “extreme fear” among crypto investors. Source: CoinMarketCap
Investor and financial educator Robert Kiyosaki blamed the crypto market downturn on low liquidity levels and said that crypto and precious metal prices will rise once the government resorts to printing more money to finance budget deficits.
Liquidity tends to drive asset prices; high liquidity from low interest rates and the expansion of the money supply drives prices up, and lower liquidity and constrained credit tend to lower asset prices or cause markets to stagnate.
Although the United States Federal Reserve has started slashing interest rates, only about 44% of traders forecast a rate cut in December, according to data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME).
Four days after Uniswap Labs and the Uniswap Foundation proposed merging their operations and activating the long-awaited fee switch, a X spat between the protocol’s founder and Gary Gensler’s former chief of staff reopened wounds that the crypto industry thought had healed.
The exchange wasn’t just about a governance vote, it was a proxy war for how Washington and Web3 remember 2022, and whether decentralization was ever more than regulatory theater.
Amanda Fischer, now at Better Markets after serving as SEC chief of staff under Gensler, fired first. On Nov. 14, she posted that Uniswap’s proposal of consolidating Foundation operations into the for-profit Labs entity while directing protocol fees to UNI token burns, said:
“This site is filled with posts talking about Uni’s switch to centralization because it was never a core philosophical value but a regulatory shield.”
“You tried to hand a centralized monopoly on crypto exchange in the US to FTX. I built the largest decentralized marketplace in the world. And she says decentralization isn’t one of my values? This crashout is insane lmao. Not everything you read on twitter is true Amanda.”
The ghost of SBF’s Washington playbook
Adams’s invocation of FTX wasn’t a rhetorical flourish, but a strategic excavation. In October 2022, one month before his exchange collapsed, Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) published “Possible Digital Asset Industry Standards,” a policy framework that endorsed licensing DeFi front ends and requiring OFAC sanctions screening.
The proposal triggered immediate backlash from builders, who saw it as a surrender disguised as a compromise.
The debate crystallized in a Bankless episode, where Erik Voorhees accused SBF of “glorifying OFAC” and undermining the core values of crypto.
Bankman-Fried countered that front-end licensing would preserve permissionless code while satisfying regulators, a distinction critics found meaningless since the interfaces were how most users accessed protocols.
Simultaneously, SBF became the most prominent industry backer of the Digital Commodities Consumer Protection Act, a legislation critics labeled the “SBF bill” due to its compliance obligations that would effectively ban major DeFi services.
The bill died alongside FTX’s implosion, but the episode cemented a narrative: Bankman-Fried wanted regulatory capture favoring centralized exchanges, and Washington was willing to play along.
Fischer’s SEC tenure overlapped with this period. While she has pushed for transparent Administrative Procedure Act rulemaking, her record is unambiguously pro-enforcement.
In Congressional testimony, she argued that crypto can comply with existing securities laws. A recent analysis co-authored by Better Markets criticized the current SEC for “abandoning” its enforcement efforts.
Her philosophical alignment with vigorous regulation makes Adams’s accusation particularly charged.
The fee switch that took five years
The unification proposal represents genuine structural change. Since launching UNI in 2020, Uniswap Labs operated at arm’s length from governance, restricted in how it could participate in protocol decisions.
The fee switch remained dormant despite repeated attempts, each stalled by legal ambiguity around whether activation would transform UNI into a security.
The Nov. 10 proposal, co-authored by Adams, Foundation Executive Director Devin Walsh, and researcher Kenneth Ng, activates protocol fees across Uniswap v2 and v3 pools, directs proceeds to UNI burns, and immediately destroys 100 million UNI from the treasury.
Labs would also cease collecting its own interface fees, which have generated a cumulative total of $137 million.
The merger folds Foundation operations into Labs, creating “one aligned team” for protocol development. Critics see centralization as a drawback, as fewer entities mean fewer checks. Supporters view efficiency as a benefit, as fewer entities mean faster execution. UNI surged up to 50% on the news before settling at $7.06 as of press time.
Fischer’s reading is that decentralization was always contingent, maintained when it provided legal insulation and abandoned when economic incentives shifted.
Adams’s read is that the move represents maturation, where a protocol that survived five years of regulatory hostility can finally align value creation with governance.
What 2022 actually looked like
The Tornado Cash sanctions in August 2022 shaped the context both parties reference. When Treasury’s OFAC sanctioned the mixer protocol, it marked the first time code itself faced designation.
The action forced every DeFi builder to confront whether American users could legally interact with their protocols and whether front ends bore liability.
SBF’s policy note dropped two months later in that exact atmosphere. His framework acknowledged the new reality: if regulators could sanction protocols, the fight over access became existential.
His answer, which involved licensing the interfaces, screening users, and keeping code permissionless, struck many as capitulation to the very chokepoint model crypto was designed to circumvent.
The alternative position, championed by builders like Voorhees and implicitly by Adams, held that any compromise on access controls recreated TradFi’s gatekeeping in Web3 clothing.
If you screen users at the front end, you’ve already lost the permissionless game.
Uniswap’s position mattered because of its scale. As the largest decentralized exchange, now processing over $150 billion monthly and generating nearly $3 billion in annualized fees, its compliance posture sets industry defaults.
Why this matters now
The current SEC has retreated from crypto enforcement under the new administration. Fischer’s Better Markets analysis explicitly faults this pullback.
For enforcement advocates, Uniswap’s unification is a victory slipping away after regulatory capture has succeeded.
For Adams and the DeFi community, the proposal represents earned autonomy after surviving years of hostile oversight that nearly classified UNI as a security, creating such profound legal uncertainty that the fee switch remained dormant despite token holders’ wishes.
The FTX reference cuts deepest because it reframes the question of who was cooperating with whom. If SBF’s Washington agenda aligned with SEC preferences, then enforcement-minded regulators were enablers of centralization, not protectors against it.
Adams built permissionless infrastructure; Bankman-Fried lobbied for licensed chokepoints. One has survived regulatory scrutiny and now activates value sharing for token holders. The other collapsed into fraud.
Their X exchange crystallized three years of tension into a single question: was DeFi’s decentralization real, or was it always contingent on regulatory convenience?
The $800 million token burn and 79% governance approval odds suggest the market has already chosen its answer.
Crypto investor sentiment is in freefall during the latest market dip as market analysts and traders search for a singular reason for falling asset prices and Bitcoin’s descent below $100,000.
The crypto “Fear and Greed” index, a metric tracking investor sentiment, is at 22, signaling investor caution and hovering just above “extreme fear” territory — its lowest level since March, according to CoinMarketCap
“This dip has been the smallest of this cycle, 25% vs 31% and 32%, but it feels so, so much worse. Sentiment cooked,” market analyst Nic Puckrin wrote.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index sits at 22, signaling investor fear and trending toward “extreme fear.” Source: CoinMarketCap
Over 70% of Polymarket traders now expect Bitcoin to dip below $90,000, a trend that market analysts have attributed to older Bitcoin whales cashing out. Long-term Bitcoin holders dumped over 400,000 BTC on the market in October.
Market analysts, investors and traders are debating whether the latest dip signals the start of the next prolonged crypto bear market or if cryptocurrencies will form new all-time highs in 2026 if interest rates continue to drop and liquidity flows into assets.
Crypto market investors search for a singular cause for BTC crashing below critical support
Bitcoin dipped below its 365-day moving average, a critical support level, several times in November and continued to move lower on Friday, trading well below its 365-day average.
Bitcoin is trading well below its 365-day moving average. Source: TradingView
Senior Bloomberg exchange-traded fund (ETF) analyst Eric Balchunas rebuffed the idea that heavy outflows from BTC ETFs were the primary cause of the continued price decline and said that ETF investors held strong, despite a 20% price shock.
ETFs saw about $1 billion in outflows over the last month, despite October’s historic market crash, which saw about $19 billion in leveraged bets wiped away from the market within 24 hours — the worst crypto liquidation event in history, Balchunas said.
Alex Thorn, head of firmwide research at investment firm Galaxy, lowered his 2025 BTC price forecast from $180,000 to $120,000 due to several factors, including investor rotation into competing narratives like gold and AI.
Thorn also said that leveraged liquidations in crypto derivatives markets are also one of the main culprits behind falling asset prices.
