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• Bitcoin price outlook after BTC breaks below the 50-week moving average.
• While it’s a buy opportunity, bulls risk seeing another pullback and a revisit of sub-$90k levels.
• A flip of $95,000 into key support could allow for bullish retests of highs above $104,504.

Bitcoin’s price hovers near $94,900 after its latest plunge allowed bears to break below a longstanding technical support.

While analysts remain largely bullish, the dip has ignited widespread selling pressure, with the flagship digital asset at risk of further correction.

Notably, the dip continues to offer whales an opportunity to scoop BTC on the cheap.

Michael Saylor’s Strategy announced a fresh acquisition of 8,178 BTC for $835.6 million, with the haul bringing the company’s total holdings to 649,870 BTC acquired for $48.37 billion.

Strategy has acquired 8,178 BTC for ~$835.6 million at ~$102,171 per bitcoin and has achieved BTC Yield of 27.8% YTD 2025. As of 11/16/2025, we hodl 649,870 $BTC acquired for ~$48.37 billion at ~$74,433 per bitcoin. $MSTR $STRC $STRD $STRE $STRF $STRK https://t.co/HI1TeYOvQ9

— Michael Saylor (@saylor) November 17, 2025

Yet, institutional inflows continue hitting the brakes, and macroeconomic jitters persist.

The key question, therefore, is whether the latest dip offers bulls an opportunity for a reset or signals the onset of a deeper decline.

Bitcoin price tests $92k low amid technical breakdown

Bitcoin (BTC) has broken down from the 50-week EMA (currently at $100,506).

This moving average, calculated as an exponential average of weekly closing prices over the past 50 weeks, has historically acted as a reliable floor for BTC.

The breakdown means Bitcoin risks printing a weekly close below the 50-EMA on the weekly chart for the first time since September 2023.

Billions of dollars in leveraged liquidations this past week and consecutive weekly outflows from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) helped bears strengthen the assault on $100,000.

As of writing, BTC price probed the $92,000–$95,000 zone, an area bulls must hold to prevent fresh declines.

The benchmark digital asset changed hands for around $93,509.

What’s next for the BTC price?

With the 50-week EMA now repurposed as overhead resistance, Bitcoin’s outlook hinges on the integrity of a multi-year ascending trendline. The support has held since 2023.

What do analysts say about the price action?

“BTC’s 27% slide from ATHs erased nearly all 2025 gains, with a weekly close below $100k and the 50W MA breach confirming a cautious tone,” QCP analysts noted.

Bitcoin price now risks breaking below the trendline support.

Weekly RSI and MACD show weakness, with RSI at 40 and downsloping and MACD having the histogram strengthening in negative territory after a bearish crossover.

The RSI on the daily time frame also shows the price is not in oversold territory yet.

While it means bulls could see a sharp reversal, it does leave room for bears.

In this case, BTC could face major weakness and allow for a potential revisit of lows around $90,000-$85,000.

The next buffer could be around the $78,000-$71,000 region.

However, a bullish pivot could materialise if sellers exhaust near the trendline.

Notably, Bitcoin’s short-term holder supply in loss has hit levels last seen in 2022 during the FTX crash.

But analysts say this could be a buying opportunity.

JUST IN: #Bitcoin STH Supply in Loss metric hits highest level since the FTX crash

Buying opportunity 🔥 pic.twitter.com/VYMQGCI18B

— Bitcoin Archive (@BitcoinArchive) November 17, 2025

A reclaim of $95,000 as nascent support, with moves such as those of Saylor’s Strategy, could unlock retests of recent highs above the 50 EMA.

The first key hurdle above this mark could be around $104,504. Bullish catalysts will include fresh exchange-traded funds inflows, Fed rate cut and dovish rhetoric, among others.

Key takeaways

• ETH is down 1% in the last 24 hours and is now trading below $3,200.
• The coin could rally above $3,500 if the daily candle closes above $3,100.

ETH approaches $3,200 as market takes a breather

The cryptocurrency market has been extremely bearish since the start of the month, with Bitcoin losing a key psychological level. Bitcoin dumped to a six-month low of $93k on Sunday, with altcoins also recording massive losses.

Ether, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, is trading below $3,200 after retesting the $3k support level during the weekend. The coin has lost 11% of its value in the last seven days, signifying the third consecutive week of losses for the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap.

Ether’s poor performance aligns with the broader crypto market, with liquidity tightening measures by the Federal Reserve affecting risk-based assets. However, analysts are confident that the crypto market will turn things around in the near term.

Derek Lim, research lead at Caladan, told The Block that,

In my opinion, the primary market driver remains liquidity. Liquidity is (and will be) temporarily tight as the U.S. government shutdown has kept the treasury general account elevated.

Ether’s performance over the next few days will likely depend on whether it continues to defend the $3k psychological and support level. 

Ethereum could recover if the $3k support level holds

The ETH/USD daily chart is bearish and efficient as Ether has underperformed over the last seven days. The coin faced rejection at the previous broken trendline around $3,592 last week and has lost 12% of its value since then. At press time, ETH is trading at $3,192 per coin. 

If the support level at $3,017 holds, Ether could continue its recovery and rally towards the key resistance level at $3,592. Similar to Bitcoin, Ether’s RSI is rebounding from oversold territory, indicating a fading bearish momentum. 

On the flip side, if Ether’s daily candle closes below $3,017, it could record further bearish performance and decline toward the next key support at $2,749.

As Bitcoin and Ethereum stumble through their worst year in recent memory, and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index tumbles into extreme fear, it may be time for crypto investors to return to first principles.

The Bitcoin long-term thesis hasn’t changed, and if you believe it’s inevitably going up, you’ll buy at any price.

As macro analyst James Lavish points out, the real story isn’t about price swings or fleeting sentiment. It’s the unyielding march of governments running deficits, central banks flooding the system with liquidity, and institutions quietly accumulating for the long haul. He commented:

“Seeing many bad takes on Bitcoin this morning, so perhaps we should return to first principles: Governments will keep overspending, global liquidity will keep expanding, and long-term, Bitcoin will reflect inflation that continues ad infinitum.”

In this environment, the Bitcoin long-term thesis is not tied to short-term moves but to foundational macro trends. We’re witnessing a parallel expansion of government debt and fiat debasement playing out in front of our eyes. And that makes Bitcoin more relevant than ever.​

Fiscal discipline remains a distant memory for most major economies. The United States reported a budget deficit of $1.775 trillion in fiscal 2025, with government expenditures climbing to $7.01 trillion by year’s end.

President Trump has kept large-scale stimulus on the table, with renewed proposals for $2,000 direct checks to households illustrating why elevated spending pressures have become a structural fixture of American fiscal policy in 2025.

Global liquidity expanding

Liquidity is surging worldwide. The broad money supply hit an astounding $142 trillion by September 2025, a 446% increase since 2000.

Year-over-year growth reached 7%, with a 9.1% spike so far in 2025. China now boasts $47.1 trillion in circulating money, while the US has $22.2 trillion.

Central banks across developed markets continue to flood the financial system, stretching the global monetary base to new highs. Liquidity through the roof has become an enduring macro feature.​

The recent downturn hasn’t discouraged institutional investors either. In fact, continuous investment shows rising conviction. Harvard, one of the world’s most closely watched endowments, tripled its Bitcoin ETF holdings in the third quarter of 2025, bringing its position to $443 million.

This marks a massive 257% increase, making IBIT Harvard’s top allocation ahead of traditional blue-chip assets. As volatility shakes the retail base, institutional adoption shows the broader trend. The Bitcoin long-term thesis for digital assets is still intact.​

Bitcoin will reflect ‘inflation that continues ad infinitum’

Every expansionary policy, every deficit funding, and every round of stimulus underscores a simple reality: inflation is here to stay, and Bitcoin will reflect that.

Bitcoin’s value proposition strengthens with each tick higher in the global money supply. When the global money supply surges past $140 trillion, and the world’s biggest economies keep printing. Bitcoin isn’t just a speculative asset; it becomes a hedge against infinite debasement.

Faced with waves of negative commentary after every dip, Bitcoin’s fundamentals deserve focus. From outsized government deficits to ceaseless liquidity creation, the backdrop hasn’t changed. Governments will keep overspending.

Global liquidity will keep expanding. Bitcoin’s future remains anchored in inflation that continues ad infinitum. As The Wolf of All Streets’ Scott Melker states:

“If you believe that bitcoin price is going much higher over time, then it makes almost no difference whether you buy at 94k, 97k or 100k. You just buy.”

Corporate Bitcoin holdings continue to climb, but treasury executives argue the trend is strengthening, not weakening, decentralization across the network.

Despite increasing concerns about concentrated Bitcoin (BTC) ownership, emerging corporate treasury firms and new institutional players are contributing to broader distribution across the ecosystem, according to several executives speaking at Bitcoin Amsterdam 2025.

“At the end of the day, what we are doing is really decentralizing Bitcoin. It doesn’t seem like that, but it is the case through the demand that we provide in the market,” said Alexander Laizet, board director of Bitcoin strategy at Capital B.

Laizet said more banks offering Bitcoin custody options are giving individuals and corporations new avenues for storage and reducing single-point dependence on a small set of custodians.

Related: Bitcoin ETFs bleed $1.1B as analysts warn of ‘mini’ bear market at pivotal moment

Corporations amass nearly 7% of the total Bitcoin supply

Corporations and Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are quietly amassing the Bitcoin supply, increasingly centralizing the distribution of the world’s first cryptocurrency.

Corporate participants have already amassed 6.7% of the total Bitcoin supply, including 4.73% through public companies and 2.03% through private companies, according to treasury data provider bitbo.io

Spot Bitcoin ETFs have also accumulated nearly 7.3% of the Bitcoin supply, becoming the largest segment of holders in less than two years since their debut in January 2024.

The growing centralized holdings are not an “immediate threat” for Bitcoin, as its “economic ownership is still spread across many underlying investors — not a single actor,” Nicolai Sondergaard, research analyst at crypto intelligence platform Nansen, told Cointelegraph.

“It doesn’t change Bitcoin’s fundamental properties. The network remains decentralized even if custody becomes more centralized.”

While this doesn’t present an “Achilles heel” for Bitcoin, it highlights that large custodial players may have “more influence over liquidity and market behaviour” as their BTC holdings continue to grow, he added.

Related: Metaplanet’s Bitcoin gains fall 39% as October crash pressures corporate treasuries

Still, some industry watchers are growing concerned about Bitcoin’s increasing institutional adoption as corporate crypto treasuries surpassed $100 billion in digital asset holdings in August.

Bitcoin’s growing corporate concentration may present a new centralized point of vulnerability, setting BTC on the same “nationalization path” as gold in 1971, according to crypto analyst Willy Woo.

“If the US dollar is structurally getting weak and China is coming in, it’s a fair point that the US might do an offer to all the treasury companies and centralize where it could be then put into a digital form, not create a new gold standard,” Woo said during a panel discussion at Baltic Honeybadger 2025, adding:

“You could then rug it like happened in 1971. And it’s all centralized around the digital Bitcoin. The whole history repeats again back to the beginning.”

In 1971, US President Richard Nixon ended the Bretton Woods system, suspending the dollar’s convertibility into gold and abandoning the fixed $35-per-ounce rate, effectively ending the gold standard.

Magazine: Mysterious Mr Nakamoto author — Finding Satoshi would hurt Bitcoin