Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded $151M outflows on November 24.
Ethereum’s products saw inflows of $96.67 million.
Solana ETFs continue their winning streak with yesterday’s $57 million.
The cryptocurrency sector remains weak as bearish sentiments prevail.
Indeed, recent price drops, muted trading activities, and worries about short-term recoveries have seen many investors adopt a defensive bias.
Exchange-traded funds flow data reflects this uncertainty, with Bitcoin recording massive withdrawals as altcoin products hold steady. Let us find out more.
Bitcoin ETFs continue to struggle – Fidelity’s stands out
BTC spot ETFs had a rough session on Monday, with net outflows totaling $151 million, according to SoSoValue.
That signals deteriorated interest in these financial products, which have played a key role in institutional crypto adoption.
Meanwhile, Fidelity’s FBTC stood out as it posted positive ETF flows of $15.49 million on Monday amidst the broader retreat.
On the other hand, BlackRock has struggled lately, with iShares’ outflows surpassing $2.2 billion so far in November.
Meanwhile, the mixed ETF outflows come as the Bitcoin price experiences notable downward pressure.
The bellwether crypto is trading at $88,190, down from late last month’s high above $115,500.
Ethereum posts inflows
While investors remain more conservative about Bitcoin, Ethereum thrived.
Data shows Ether ETFs attracted $96.67 million in inflows yesterday, with BlackRock’s ETHA dominating at $92.61 million.
Ethereum seems to thrive as Bitcoin struggles, as narratives like the latest attacks on Strategy by JPMorgan magnified uncertainty in BTC-based financial products.
Institutions are seemingly migrating to Ethereum, possibly indicating renewed trust in its unique role in powering scaling solutions, decentralized apps (dApps), and support for new infrastructure.
ETH is changing hands at $2,925 after gaining 3% the past 24 hours. It lost more than 2% the past week.
Solana ETFs maintain upside momentum
Solana held its ground, attracting net inflows of $57.99 million on November 24.
The altcoin has seen positive ETF flows since its debut, highlighting steady institutional demand.
For instance, Bitwise’s Solana spot exchange-traded fund surpassed $500 million AUM last week.
Solana experienced amplified institutional interest due to its robust network that prioritizes scalability, speed, and security.
The team spent the past years rewriting Solana’s reputation, darkened by previous network outages.
Now, the blockchain exhibits a thriving developer community, booming app usage, and Solana-based tokens.
With these factors, Solana has carved a unique lane in the blockchain industry.
SOL is trading at $138 after soaring 5% in the last 24 hours.
The altcoin lost nearly 30% of its value over the past month.
Bitcoin (BTC) risk-reward has delivered a rare bullish signal as multiple metrics flip “green.”
Key points:
Bitcoin price metrics are showing multiyear opportunities when it comes to risk versus reward.
While not a guarantee that the BTC price bottom is in, the odds for buyers are “becoming more attractive.”
Data is increasingly mimicking the end of the 2022 bear market.
Data from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant confirms multiyear lows for Bitcoin’s Sharpe Ratio.
Bitcoin Sharpe Ratio offers hope for bulls
Bitcoin is more attractive as a bet in terms of risk versus reward than at any time since mid-2023.
The Sharpe Ratio, a classic economic tool used to assess an asset’s investment risk, has entered its “green” zone below zero for the first time since June that year.
“We are now entering the same zone seen in 2019, 2020, and 2022, periods where the Sharpe Ratio spent time at structurally depressed levels before new multi-month trends emerged,” CryptoQuant contributor MorenoDV wrote in one of its “Quicktake” blog posts.
“This does not guarantee a bottom, but it does indicate that the quality of future returns is starting to improve, provided the market stabilizes and volatility begins to normalize.”
Bitcoin Sharpe ratio. Source: CryptoQuant
Sharpe trends to continue lower into negative territory before reversing, taking the price with it. Its last long-term bottom came in November 2022, around two months before the end of the last crypto bear market.
Moreno thus suggested that the metric needed to begin reversing upward before users could breathe a sigh of relief.
“Bitcoin is not yet signaling trend recovery, but it is signaling that the risk-adjusted landscape is becoming more attractive for forward returns,” he stressed.
Bitcoin Heater returns to 2022
Elsewhere, another go-to BTC price metric also hinted at a similar comeback.
The Bitcoin Heater, created by quantitative Bitcoin and digital asset fund Capriole Investments, is likewise back in the green.
The metric measures “relative heat in the Bitcoin Perpetuals, Futures and Options weighted by Open Interest,” Capriole explains, and currently stands at 0.09 — its lowest level since November 2022.
“We have some big headwinds to resolve (like institutional selling), but I cannot be bearish with Heater in the deep green zone today + fundamental value across the board,” creator Charles Edwards commented in a post on X Tuesday.
“I suspect higher for at least the next week.”
BTC/USD one-day chart with Bitcoin Heater data. Source: Capriole Investments
Edwards also uploaded a chart of Bitcoin’s dynamic range network value to transaction (NVT) ratio, which now shows it as “oversold” relative to the value of onchain transactions.
Among them is longtime trader Peter Brandt, who likened BTC/USD recovering from $80,500 lows to a so-called “dead cat bounce” as part of a broader downtrend.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
The founder of Berachain has thrown cold water on a recent report suggesting that one of its lead Series B backers was granted the right to be refunded $25 million, calling the framing “incomplete” and “inaccurate.”
Unchained reported on Monday that Berachain gave Brevan Howard’s crypto-focused fund, Nova Digital, a one-year right to a refund on its $25 million investment in Berachain’s Series B round in April 2024.
Unchained also provided a side letter signed by Berachain general counsel Jonathan Ip and Nova director Carol Reynolds that said Nova can recoup “some or all” of its investment for “twelve months following” Berachain’s token generation event (TGE).
Berchain’s TGE, or token mint, took place on Feb. 6, meaning Nova could reportedly get a refund on its bet until Feb. 6, 2026.
Berachain founder: Brevan given the same terms as others
Smokey The Bera, Berachain’s anonymous founder, said on Monday that the report was “inaccurate and incomplete” and Brevan’s “investments involve several complex commercial agreements, but they participated in the Series B fundraise on the same paperwork as all investors.”
“Brevan Howard co-led our Series B a year ago, out of their Abu Dhabi office, via Nova, a new liquid-only vehicle on the same terms as all other investors. Nova had approached Berachain to lead the round some months prior to this,” said Smokey.
Nova agreed to additional arrangements, says Smokey
Smokey said that Nova asked for a provision “to guard for a scenario in which Berachain failed to TGE and get listed.”
They said if that happened, the locked Berachain (BERA) tokens Nova purchased would “not be an eligible investment via Nova’s liquid strategy.”
“Thus, we entered into the side letter posted in the article and committed Nova to additional commercial arrangements, including an agreement to provide liquidity on the network, which was only possible upon launch,” Smokey added.
They said the letter wasn’t made “to close the deal with a party who otherwise would not have been interested, or to prevent against post-launch losses,” adding it also “generally has precedent.”
Smokey also stressed that Nova is one of the largest tokenholders of Berachain and is a liquidity provider, holding both locked BERA acquired in the blockchain’s Series B and additional BERA it purchased on the open market.
“They have increased their BERA exposure over time, despite running a liquid fund in a harsh alt environment,” they added.
Smokey and the Berachain Foundation were contacted for comment via X. Brevan Howard did not respond to a request for comment outside of regular business hours.
The BERA token is down 93% from its peak of $14.83, which it reached when it launched in February, and is currently trading at $1.05, up 3.2% on the day, according to CoinGecko.
The SEC has just issued its second “no-action letter” toward a decentralized physical infrastructure network (DePIN) crypto project in recent months, giving its native token “regulatory cover” from enforcement.
The no-action letter was sent to the Solana DePIN project Fuse, which issues a network token FUSE as a reward to those actively maintaining the network.
Fuse initially submitted a letter to the SEC’s Division of Corporation Finance on Nov. 19, asking for official confirmation that it would not recommend the “SEC take enforcement action” if FUSE tokens continue to be traded on third-party marketplaces.
Fuse also outlined in its letter that FUSE is designed for network utility and consumptive purposes, not for speculation. It can only be redeemed for an average market price via third parties.
“Based on the facts presented, the Division will not recommend enforcement action to the Commission if, in reliance on your opinion as counsel, Fuse offers and sells the Tokens in the manner and under the circumstances described in your letter,” wrote Division of Corporation Finance’s deputy chief counsel, Jonathan Ingram, on Monday.
SEC’s no-action letter to Fuse Crypto. Source: SEC
The latest SEC no-action letter comes just a few months after the SEC issued a similar “highly coveted” letter to Double Zero, which was seen as a result of a new, more crypto-friendly leadership at the SEC.
At the time, DoubleZero co-founder Austin Federa said such letters are common in TradFi but are “very rare” in the crypto space.
“It was a months long process, but we found the SEC to be quite receptive, we found them to be quite professional, quite diligent, there was no crypto animosity.”
The SEC was put under new leadership in April, after Paul Atkins was sworn in as the 34th chairman, and the agency has since been seen taking a more balanced approach to crypto. As part of the leadership, crypto-friendly Hester Peirce also heads up the agency’s crypto task force.
SEC no-action letters are a form of regulatory clarity
Adding to the discussion on X, Rebecca Rettig, a legal representative of Solana MEV infrastructure platform Jito Labs, said that no-action letters are sought after by many crypto projects.
“Why do crypto teams want them? ‘Regulatory clarity.’ If you’re planning to issue a token, a NAL provides reasonable assurance you won’t face immediate enforcement for violations of securities laws. It’s a kind of ‘regulatory cover,’” she wrote.
SEC giving a pass to Fuse wasn’t unexpected: Crypto lawyer
The no-action letter doesn’t necessarily set any new precedents, however.
Commenting on the subject via X on Monday, Consensys lawyer Bill Hughes said this was “an easy case,” given the nature of Fuse’s token.
“The take away is that there is not a lawyer in crypto that would have thought this token was a security. And maybe not even any lawyer who is merely familiar with Howey,” Hughes said.
The same month that Double Zero secured its no-action letter, the SEC also issued a similar no-action letter for crypto-custodians that don’t qualify as banks.
While they still have to meet strict conditions, the no-action letter provides clear guidelines for acceptable ways for these types of firms to operate and deal with crypto, something which the industry has been begging for over the past few years.
Crypto-sector investors favored digital asset treasuries (DATs) on Monday, with crypto treasury stocks outpacing the broader crypto market.
BitMine Immersion Technologies was leading the pack of major digital asset treasuries with a Monday stock surge of almost 20%, according to Google Finance.
Its share prices surged from just below $27 to top $31 by the end of the trading day, maintaining those gains in after-hours trading as Ether (ETH) prices climbed.
BitMine stock (BMNR) has been in decline since the crypto market peak in early October, shedding 50% since then. However, despite those losses, the stock is still up 630% since the company started its Ether accumulation strategy in late June.
The second-largest Ether DAT, SharpLink Gaming (SBET), also saw stocks rise on Monday, adding almost 6% on the day as share prices topped $10. Meanwhile, Michael Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR) added 5% to reach $179 by the end of the trading day.
“Ethereum treasury companies are showing no signs of a bottom. A reversal in these stocks will start a major reversal in ETH,” commented macro investor Ted Pillows.
The recovery in DAT stocks has outpaced the broader crypto market, which has seen gains of 2.1% in total capitalization over the past 24 hours.
BitMine stocks shows solid recovery this week. Source: Google Finance
BitMine now holds 3% of the Ether supply
Digital asset treasuries have continued to hold and accumulate during the market correction, unlike retail traders who sold in panic.
As a result, BitMine has just passed a milestone of accumulating 3% of the total Ether supply. It is “two-thirds on the way to the ‘Alchemy of 5%’,” commented chairman Tom Lee on Monday.
The company currently holds 3.63 million ETH worth around $10.6 billion, according to StrategicEthReserve. It bought the dip, scooping up 69,822 ETH last week, according to a company announcement on Monday.
Institutional investment in the firm has also surged, according to “BMNR Bullz,” who cited Nasdaq figures reporting that institutional ownership of BitMine has skyrocketed from 6% to 31.7% in just 13 days.
Ether prices recover slowly
Ether prices have gained around 3% over the past 24 hours, hitting an intraday high of $2,980 during late trading on Monday. The asset found resistance there and has retreated slightly over the past few hours.
ETH was hit hard in the November market rout and remains down 41% from its all-time high of $4,946 in August.
“The continued decline in crypto prices in the past week reflects the impaired liquidity since October 10th, as well as price technicals, which remain weak,” commented Lee.
Profitability across the Bitcoin mining industry is facing new strain amid rising network competition and declining revenue conditions.
Bitcoin miners are facing a fresh squeeze as the network’s hashrate — a measure of the total computing power competing to secure the Bitcoin network — climbed to a record 1.16 ZH/s in October while Bitcoin’s (BTC) price fell toward $81,000 entering November, according to a report by The Miner Mag.
Hashprice, which tracks miner revenue per unit of computing power, fell below $35 per hash, dropping under the $45/PH/s median total hashprice reported by public mining companies. The decline leaves several operators approaching breakeven levels.
The report noted that payback periods for mining rigs have stretched beyond 1,200 days, while financing costs continue to rise across the sector, adding further strain.
The downturn follows a relatively stable third quarter, during which the hash price averaged about $55/PH/s, driven by BTC trading near $110,000. Rising competition on the network and a drop in Bitcoin’s price entering November have pushed mining profitability to its weakest levels on record.
The financial strain has also coincided with a surge in miner borrowing, driven first by a wave of near-zero-coupon convertible bonds in the past quarter.
While miners are accelerating their pivot into AI and high-power computing (HPC), the revenue from these services remains too small to meaningfully offset the sharp drop in Bitcoin mining income, according to the report.
Despite the sector’s tightening economics, the top ten publicly traded miners were all higher over the past 24 hours, with CleanSpark, Cipher Mining and IREN posting double-digit gains on Monday.
The surge followed a JPMorgan research note raising price targets for the three miners, pointing to a surge in long-term HPC and cloud deals across the sector.
JPMorgan said Cipher’s share price had fallen roughly 45% from its peak, creating a more attractive entry point, and noted that the company was “well-positioned” to sign additional deals with HPC tenants.
The bank trimmed its estimates for Marathon Digital and Riot, arguing that lower Bitcoin prices and larger share counts are weighing on the two miners’ sizable coin inventories.
The surge in miner stocks also coincided with a mild rebound in the price of Bitcoin, which rose around 2% over the past 24 hours and was trading at around $89,000, according to CoinGecko data at the time of writing.
Solana’s native token SOL (SOL) failed to reclaim $140 on Monday despite recovering part of its recent losses. A negative funding rate in SOL perpetual futures and declining onchain activity across the Solana network continued to weigh on investor sentiment.
SOL remains down 30% over the past 30 days, underperforming the broader altcoin market. Traders are now assessing the likelihood of a sustainable bullish trend.
SOL/USD vs. altcoin market capitalization. Source: TradingView / Cointelegraph
Much of the prevailing concern among cryptocurrency investors stems from declining confidence in the United States economy, following signs of labor-market weakness and an increasing reliance on artificial intelligence investments.
The CEO of Deutsche Bank’s DWS asset manager told Reuters that there is “no playbook” for valuing the AI sector, adding that more evidence is required beyond efficiency gains to support elevated valuations.
After a record 43-day US government funding shutdown, several consumer companies reduced sales expectations following weaker-than-anticipated earnings, including Target, Home Depot and McDonald’s.
With the release of the US October Consumer Price Index (CPI) and unemployment data canceled, traders had even less visibility regarding the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision scheduled for Dec. 10.
Derivatives stress and fading activity continue pressuring SOL’s price
SOL’s weakness reflects a broader decline in risk appetite, but additional factors likely contributed to its underperformance relative to major altcoins. The successful launch of XRP (XRP) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the US increased competition for institutional flows, and launches tied to other cryptocurrencies, including Litecoin (LTC) and Chainlink (LINK), are expected to follow.
SOL perpetual futures annualized funding rate. Source: laevitas.ch
Demand for bearish leverage on SOL perpetual futures has been persistent since Friday, as the funding rate turned negative, meaning traders are paying to maintain positions that benefit from further price declines. Under neutral conditions, this indicator typically ranges between 6% and 12% to account for opportunity costs.
Aggregate SOL futures open interest has fallen 27% over the past 30 days, indicating reduced demand for leverage.
SOL 2-month futures annualized basis rate. Source: laevitas.ch
The premium on SOL monthly futures relative to spot prices has dropped to 0%, a level consistent with highly bearish market conditions. In a neutral environment, this metric generally ranges from 5% to 10%, while negative readings signal a sharp absence of demand for bullish exposure.
Bearish sentiment is likely to persist until conditions in SOL derivatives markets show a meaningful improvement.
The total value locked (TVL) on the Solana network declined to $10.5 billion on Monday, a 20% drop compared with one month earlier. Blockchain revenue, measured by weekly fees, has fallen to its lowest level since May, which helps explain why SOL has lagged behind the broader altcoin market. For comparison, Ethereum’s weekly fees are down only 5% over the same 30-day period.
Blockchains ranked by 30-day active addresses. Source: Nansen
Solana remains the clear leader in active addresses and transaction count, maintaining a wide margin over the second-place BNB Chain. More importantly, Nansen data shows a 13% increase in activity on Solana, while its main competitor, Ethereum, recorded a 15% decline. These figures may help reinforce confidence among SOL investors, but they are not, on their own, a catalyst for a sustained bull run.
SOL has gained 14% since hitting a low of $121.50 on Friday; however, this rebound does not guarantee lasting upward momentum, particularly as derivatives markets remain fragile and network fees continue to show weakness. A short squeeze toward $160 cannot be ruled out, but it would require a significantly stronger show of confidence from SOL traders.
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
Today in crypto, Japan’s financial regulator is preparing to require exchanges to hold liability reserves for customer assets. Crypto investment products have seen nearly $5 billion in outflows over the past four weeks, though late-week inflows suggest sentiment may be stabilizing. Meanwhile, the New York Stock Exchange has approved Grayscale’s Dogecoin and XRP funds for trading.
Japanese watchdog to require exchanges to hold liability reserves: Report
The Financial Services Agency in Japan will reportedly require cryptocurrency exchanges to maintain liability reserves as part of measures to guard against hacks or unforeseen events.
According to a Monday Nikkei report, Japan’s FSA will revise its requirements for local companies to include methods for quickly compensating users affected by security breaches or other causes. The financial watchdog reportedly cited recent hacks of global exchanges as part of the reason behind the change.
The Financial System Council, an advisory body to the FSA, is set to release a report on the matter following a meeting on Wednesday. One of the expected recommendations would require crypto firms to create liability reserve funds.
The move follows reports that the FSA plans to review regulations that would allow banks to purchase and hold crypto assets. Japan remains a country with a high concentration of crypto users, with about 12 million accounts registered as of February, according to data from the FSA. The country has a population of about 123 million.
$1.9 billion exodus and flicker of hope hits crypto investment funds: CoinShares
Cryptocurrency investment products have hit almost $5 billion in outflows over the past four weeks, but inflows during the final days of last week offered a small sign of improving sentiment.
Crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs) saw $1.94 billion in outflows last week, a small decline from the $2 billion exodus the previous week, according to a Monday research report from CoinShares.
The four-week total now stands at $4.9 billion, marking the third-largest outflow run on record. Only the March tariff-driven sell-off and the February 2018 downturn were bigger.
Still, CoinShares noted “tentative signs of a turnaround,” citing $258 million in inflows during the last trading days of the week following seven straight days of redemptions.
Weekly crypto asset flows, in USD, millions. Source: CoinShares
XRP (XRP) investment products were a rare bright spot. XRP exchange-traded products (ETPs) recorded $89.3 million in inflows last week, defying the broader downturn even as the token fell 6.9%.
Solana (SOL) ETPs were in the red with $156 million in outflows and SOL falling 3.5%, according to Cointelegraph data.
NYSE approves Grayscale DOGE and XRP ETFs, clearing launch for Monday
Grayscale’s Dogecoin (DOGE) and XRP (XRP) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are teed up to launch on Monday after New York Stock Exchange subsidiary NYSE Arca approved the listing of the two crypto funds.
NYSE Arca filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Friday to certify “its approval for listing and registration” of the Grayscale XRP Trust ETF (GXRP) and the Grayscale Dogecoin Trust ETF (GDOG).
Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said the two ETFs are “scheduled to begin trading Monday,” with another of Grayscale’s ETF’s tied to Chainlink (LINK) “coming soon as well, week after I think.”
The signing off by the NYSE marks the final approval needed for Grayscale’s ETFs to go live, one of many ETFs tied to speculative cryptocurrencies that asset managers have brought to market in recent weeks.
The Financial Services Agency in Japan will reportedly require cryptocurrency exchanges to maintain liability reserves as part of measures to guard against hacks or unforeseen events.
According to a Monday Nikkei report, Japan’s FSA will revise its requirements for local companies to include methods for quickly compensating users affected by security breaches or other causes. The financial watchdog reportedly cited recent hacks of global exchanges as part of the reason behind the change.
The Financial System Council, an advisory body to the FSA, is reportedly set to release a report on the matter following a meeting on Wednesday. One of the expected recommendations would require crypto firms to create liability reserve funds.
The move follows reports that the FSA plans to review regulations that would allow banks to purchase and hold crypto assets. Japan remains a country with a high concentration of crypto users, with about 12 million accounts registered as of February, according to data from the FSA. The country has a population of about 123 million.
Long after establishing regulations recognizing a potential stablecoin pegged to the Japanese yen, the Tokyo-based fintech firm JPYC launched the digital asset in October. According to the company, the JPYC stablecoin is backed one-to-one by bank deposits and government bonds.
Some of the country’s largest financial institutions, including Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Bank Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp and Mizuho Bank, launched their stablecoin issuance platform Progmat in 2023, and are reportedly exploring their own token.
Monex Group, another Japan-based financial company, is also considering the launch of a yen-pegged stablecoin.
For all the talk that this cycle is somehow “different,” the structure of Bitcoin’s market still looks unmistakably cyclical to me.
Each top brings the same chorus claiming the cycle model is dead, and each cooling phase renews the idea that liquidity alone now sets the trajectory. But the evidence keeps pointing the other way.
Bears may be getting shorter, cadence may be compressing, and new all-time highs may keep creeping earlier in each epoch, yet the underlying rhythm hasn’t disappeared.
My core bear market thesis
My working view is simple: the next true bear-market bottom will still be the lowest print of the cycle, and that print likely isn’t in yet.
As the last cycle bottomed in 2023 and the halving delivered an all-time high ahead of schedule, a compressed downturn into 2026 fits both historical patterns and present dynamics.
In fact, the current rollover could easily evolve into a fast, sharp decline that briefly overshoots to the downside, exhausts sellers, and sets the stage for another climb toward a new high ahead of the following halving.
In that scenario, a panic-driven slide toward the high-$40,000s becomes the point where the tape finally breaks, and where the buyer base changes character.
Sub-$50k is where sovereign balance sheets, institutions, and ultra-high-net-worth allocators who “missed” the last move are most likely to YOLO in size.
Bitcoin cycle liquidity
That demand is structural. It’s the set of actors who now view Bitcoin not as a trade, but as strategic inventory.
The real fragility lies elsewhere: in the security budget.
With inscriptions fading and fee revenue collapsing back toward pre-hype levels, miners have had to pivot into AI and HPC hosting just to maintain cash flow.
That stabilizes their businesses but creates new elasticity in hashrate, especially at price lows, and leaves the network leaning more heavily on issuance at the exact moment issuance is stepping down.
The short-term result is a market more sensitive to miner behavior, more exposed to dips in fee share, and more prone to sharp mechanical selloffs when hashprice compresses.
All of this keeps the cyclical lens intact: shorter bears, sharper floors, and a path where the next true bottom, whether early 2026 or just ahead of the 2027 window, is defined by miner economics, fee trends, and the point at which deep-pocketed buyers rush to secure supply.
So, regardless of what copium-fueled influencers say, Bitcoin still trades in cycles, and the next downcycle is likely to hinge on security-budget math, miner behavior, and institutional flow elasticity.
Let’s dig deeper into the data.
If fees do not rebuild a durable floor as issuance steps down, and if miners lean on AI and HPC hosting to stabilize cash flow, hashrate becomes more price sensitive at the lows.
That mix can pressure hashprice, stress marginal operators, and produce mechanically driven legs that print a floor near $49,000 in early 2026, then hand off to a slower recovery into 2027 and 2028.
The structural bid is real, but it can blink when volatility rises, and macro tightens at the margin.
Scenario
Bottom Price (USD)
Timing Window
Path Shape
Key Triggers Into Low
What Flips the Recovery
Base
49,000
Q1–Q2 2026
2–3 sharp legs lower, basing
Hashprice forwards sub-$40 PH/s/day for weeks; fee% of miner revenue
Policy/liquidity pivot; sovereign or ETF large prints
The deep cut bottoms at one of the strongest price points and liquidity levels at $36,700, denoted by the green solid line on the chart below.
Bitcoin deep cut level
So, while I believe in the Bitcoin cycle, ETF flows, and miner revenue will determine how low we go.
Bitcoin’s largest ETF, BlackRock’s IBIT, posted a record one-day outflow of about $523 million on Nov. 19, 2025, as the spot price rolled over. That is a clean example of flow elasticity in the new regime.
Rolling sums across the U.S. spot ETF set capture the same behavior in aggregate, with windows of net outflows building as prices grind lower.
For miner revenue, the fee floor that emerged during inscriptions has now faded.
Last year’s ordinals activity drove fee revenue to periods where it rivaled the block subsidy, occasionally surpassing it, but transaction demand cooled, and fee share retreated.
Mempool fee rate percentiles also show median fee rates well below last year’s peaks.
A weak fee share keeps the security budget leaning on issuance, which falls predictably, so the burden shifts to price and hashprice to keep miner economics intact.
Miner behavior is also changing as public operators expand into AI and HPC hosting.
This introduces dual revenue streams that stabilize business models, yet it can also make hashrate more elastic at price lows.
If hosting cash flow covers fixed costs, miners can downshift hash when BTC margins compress without immediate distress, which tightens network security at the margin during dips and can deepen price sensitivity.
TeraWulf signed two 10-year AI hosting agreements backed by Google with multibillion-dollar revenue potential, and other miners are actioning similar pivots.
The timeline of these contracts is useful context for the hash supply elasticity argument.
Hashprice remains the simple lens for miner margins.
Luxor’s Hashrate Index shows spot and forward series that have hovered near the lower band into late 2025, consistent with tighter conditions.
If forward hashprice holds at depressed levels while fee share stays subdued, the probability of miner balance sheet stress rises, and capitulation-style supply can appear in concentrated windows.
The path from there tends to feature two or three fast legs lower, a base, then an accumulation phase that absorbs miner and leveraged supply as perpetual funding and basis reset.
The $49,000 base case is a cyclical call, not a macro forecast.
The timing aligns with my cycle stance and the observation that bears have been getting shorter.
The 2024 pre-halving all-time high compressed the cadence versus 2020–21, but it did not end cycles.
The line to watch is the confluence of three series
Fee share of miner revenue on a 7-day basis that fails to sustain above 10–15% for weeks.
Hashprice printing new cycle lows and holding there long enough to pressure weaker operators.
20-day cumulative ETF flows turning negative as price declines, which demonstrates flow elasticity breaking down at the margin.
When these align, the probability of a sharp print rises.
The recovery side of the call rests on plumbing and on inventory.
ETFs, custody, and OTC rails now move real size with fewer frictions than in prior cycles, and that helps convert headline dip demand into executed flow.
The buyer list at $49,000 includes ETFs rebalancing toward target weights, UHNW mandates adding core exposure, and sovereign or sovereign-adjacent balance sheets that treat sub-$50,000 as strategic.
A price-elastic response from these channels is the practical difference between a drawn-out malaise and a faster climb back to realized cap expansion and healthier breadth.
Counterpoints deserve space.
Layer 2 settlement could build a durable fee floor in this epoch, which would lift the security budget and moderate hashprice stress.
If fee share rises and holds above the teens while ETF flows flip positive on down days, the bear could resolve earlier and shallower than the base case.
The AI and HPC pivot can also be framed as supportive of network security in the medium term, since it keeps miners solvent and able to invest in capacity and power contracts.
That case should be weighed against the near-term effect of elastic hashrate at the lows, which is where sharp prints typically occur.
The Power-law framing also gives the cycle lens a foundation without overfitting.
On log scale, Bitcoin’s long-run trajectory behaves like an organic system with resource constraints, where energy, hashrate, issuance, and a fee market define the friction around trend.
Deviations above and below that band occur when security-budget variables and flow variables pull in the same direction.
The present setup looks like a classic below-band excursion risk if fees remain soft and flow elasticity weakens.
